NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

Very much here for some CFP bullshit

My best guess is Tennessee drops to 12 and BYU falls beyond that. Boise to 11 and the remainder unchanged or +1 or 2 spots depending

What I’m most curious about is colorado. Guessing they move up to 14 or something? At this point if they win out they absolutely are in

If they win out they will the big 12.

Georgia should be 4 or 5 but guessing they just stay locked behind ole Miss and bama.

Byu should plummet the committee already "hates" them. Wouldn't be surprised if they are behind Colorado.

Oh yeah byu beat smu so that will probably lock them one spot ahead of smu so that may change things a little.

I'll guess it goes Colorado byu Tennessee Texas a and m in that order in the 13-16ish spots. Haven't looked exactly where they would rank right in there. Will be interesting if Colorado jumps Boise by the end of the year.

Not that it ultimately matters (this week anyway) but Tennessee falling out of 12 as an SEC team who lost to a team who will now be in the top 10 would genuinely surprise me

Maxed out on Ole Miss and Indiana in FanDuel

Big 12:

H2H tiebreaks:

ASU/Colo - 2 mutual losses, depends inf cin/tt finishes higher than kst, which is close
ASU/BYU - ASU h2h
ASU/ISU - depends on if cincy or KU finishes higher
COLO/BYU (at 2 losses) - BYU, both have 1 mutual loss, and colorado's second would be mutual while BYU's wouldn't
COLO/ISU - depends on if KST or TT finishes higher

3 way ties:
not ASU - 5 mutual games. all beat baylor, all beat UCF, all beat utah. BYU ISU lost to KU, Colo lost to KST. BYU's second loss cannot be mutual, Colrado's is either to KU or Ok St. If KU, then it's BYU/ISU. If Ok State, then it depends on if KST or KU finishes higher, which is pro kst, since both pick up an extra loss here, so prob BYU/ISU

not ISU - 6 mutual games. All beat Arizona, UCF and Utah
Both of ASU's losses are non mutual, so they are 100% thru. Down to Colo/BYU, it's BYU

Not COLO (COLO wins out) - KU, KST, UCF, Utah are mutuals. ASU is thru bc they are 4-0 and others are 3-1

Not BYU (byu wins out) - CIN, KU, KST, TT, UCF, Utah are mutuals
ASU lost 2 (CIN TT), COLO has lost 1 or 2 (2 if KU, 1 if OKST), ISU has lost 2
KSU is probably 5-3 in this spot, so if TT wins 2, then it's Colorado. If Colorado loses to OK St, it's Colorado. If TT also finishes 5-3, it goes KU/Cincy

4 way tie:
Mutuals: Ku, KST, UCF, Utah
ASU is 4-0
ISU is 3-1
BYU is 3-1
Colo is 2-2 if lose to KU, 3-1 if lose to OK St
So, ASU thru
BYU/ISU comes down to opponent record, which BYU loses bc OK ST is 0-7 and destroys it

So, Arizona State is in if they win out at 39.5%

Colorado:
In if win out 57%
Lose 1: 42%

ASU and ISU both lose: 34%, they are in
ASU win out ISU lose, BYU
ASU lose, ISU win out: call it 10%

ISU:
Lots of combos, have it around 16%

BYU
win out 35%
lose hou: 6% almost def in, I think
lose ASU: 51%. Colorado wins out, need ASU to lose to Arizona and ISU to lose
Colorado loses (to KU), need either ASU or ISU to lose, then they likely advance in the 3 way tie

So I have
Colorado 74%
BYU 62%
ASU 40%
ISU 16%

Which only adds up to 1.92 spots, which makes sense since I probably missed something, and also I don't have multi way tiebreaks at 3 losses

All chalk the rest of the way thru the end of the season:

1 Oregon
2 Ohio State
3 Texas
4 Penn St
5 Georgia
6 ND
7 Miami
8 Alabama
9 Ole Miss
10 Indiana
11 Tennessee
12 SMU
13 Colorado
14 Arizona State
15 Boise
16 Clemson
17 Tulane
18 BYU

So that means 10 Indiana would be the last team in and 11 Tennessee is the bubble team (could reverse this if Indiana loses to OSU really big)

If SMU > Miami, I think Tennessee gets in and Miami is the bubble team

Things that could free up a spot:
ND losing to Army or USC
Ole Miss losing to Florida or Miss St
Alabama losing to Oklahoma or Auburn

Then the three I'm unsure about:
UGA losing to GT? super unlikely, but with wins over Clemson, Tennessee and @ Texas, would they really drop past 11-2 Miami or 10-2 Tennessee that they beat h2h?

Texas losing to Kentucky or ATM? Texas' resume is pretty bare. I think ATM winning out would jump them over Tennessee and so they're in, and then the question is Texas vs Tennessee vs 11-2 Miami

Penn State losing @ Minnesota? Their resume is the dreaded "grind of mediums." They've been getting the benefit of the doubt so far this season, but I think Tennessee would jump them. Miami would clearly already be well ahead before losing to SMU, and I don't know if they'd drop past.

Big-12 has basically eliminated itself from at-large consideration, I thought they had an excellent chance if 12-0 BYU lost in the B12CG, but that's toast now.

Clemson is just drawing super thin, they need a lot of chaos to happen in front of them, and they can't even jump UGA if UGA loses to GT. (They do still have about a 23% chance of making the ACCG game if Miami loses or SMU loses 2)

I think they would jump Bama (wins over Georgia, South Carolina, Wisconsin, LSU, but 3 losses to Vandy, Tennessee and Auburn/OU) if Bama loses.

Basically, between 11-1 Indiana, 11-2 Miami and 10-2 Tennessee, there's 1 spot already. Ole Miss / Bama / ND have a six game parlay where dropping one would free up a second spot. Slight chance they free up a third. Beyond that, it gets dicey

Playoff odds

Vegas / Me

ACC
Miami 60 / 53 - 49% to win the ACC, some small chance they win out, lose ACCG and get the last at-large
SMU 48 / 37 - Think Vegas is off here. On paper, SMU should be even or slightly ahead of Miami, but the committee is clearly giving them the helmet treatment, I don't know why that would all of a sudden reverse in the final couple weeks
Clemson 26 / 15 - Think Vegas is way off here. Clemson's at large chances are incredibly slim, and they're much less likely to win the ACC than Vegas thinks

B12
Assume they're dead for at large
Colorado 55 / 51
BYU 23 / 20
ISU 12 / 10
ASU 20 / 18

B1G
Oregon 100 / 100
Ohio St 99 / 99
Indiana 76 / 96 - Same opinion difference I've had all season, think they're nearly locked in at 11-1, although if they get blown out badly that would change things
Penn St 93 / 93 - Probably in if they lose, but I sure wouldn't test that theory

ND 77 / 59 - Again, same huge difference I've seen for several weeks. If they lose, they are ****ing toast. Losing to a 7-5 MAC team at home, and to 6-6 USC is not a playoff resume, when you end with 1 top-25 win

SEC
97 / 100 - I think UGA is actually close to locked in. Even if they lose to GT, they'd have wins over Texas, Clemson and Tennessee, and two of the teams they would be fighting with are Clemson and Tennessee.
Texas 97 / 90 - Texas has zero top-25 wins. If they lose to ATM are we really sure they're a lock?
Bama 83 / 80 - Win out and you're in. Lose and you're almost certainly out
Ole Miss 71 / 77 - They're ahead of Tennessee in the pecking order, which is all you need to be a lock at 10-2
ATM 14 / 19 - Winning out should do it. Why would Texas with zero top-25 wins get in ahead of an ATM team with the same record who just beat them? They'd make their own space

Does army ever steal a spot (or Boise) and how will the committee handle the army Navy game? I assume they release the playoffs the week before that?

Aggies have to win the sec to get in unless I'm missing something

I think there is value on Penn State +2500

If they win out, they are basically locked in to the 6 seed

Ohio State / Oregon loser is ahead of them at the 5 (or Oregon/ Indiana loser)

That means they have a home game against the 11 seed, which is often Tennessee, Ole Miss, Boise State, 11-2 Miami, or sometimes the SECCG loser.

Then, they are almost always facing the ACC winner at #3. So likely to be favored in their first two games.

If they lose a game, they're like 70% to make it, usually as the 11 seed, so often in the same spot with a much tougher first round game (road game vs UGA or Ole Miss or ND), then Miami

B1G winner is almost always #1 unless something goofy happens

SEC winner almost always #2

ACC winner usually #3

B12 winner usually #4

G5 winner usually #12 although Boise could hypothetically get to 10 or 11

B1G loser often #5

Penn State usually #6

UGA usually #7

Indiana, ND, Ole Miss and SECCG loser are 8-11

If those guys lose, Tennessee, 11-2 Miami, 11-2 SMU, 10-2 Clemson backfill

So, seeds 5 and 6 are likely to be a lot better than 7 and 8. You get to play Boise/Tennessee/11-2 Miami a lot of the time at home in the first round, then you get to play a neutral game against the B12/ACC/Boise.

Seeds 7-11 you have to play a tough first round game, then you have to play the B1G champ or the SEC champ

I think if they win @ Auburn and vs Texas, they will be in the SECCG (which they might prefer not to be)

If they lose there, not sure if that drops them back down past Tennessee or Texas

Army's schedule is SO BAD, but if they upset ND and win out, that would give them two great wins (Tulane). This is like ~4%

They'd almost assuredly be ahead of Boise for the auto bid

Best odds for Boise to steal a spot are Colorado losing again, then winning the B12CG

SECCG is FOR THE MOST PART (lots of other upsets in unrelated games could shift things)

Texas wins out, they're in
Bama wins out, they're in
ATM wins out, they replace Texas

Anything else happens (Bama loses, Texas loses to UK then beats ATM, ATM loses to Auburn then beats UT), Georgia slides in

It's been creeping up on us for a while, but I guess if you want to be one of the cool kids, full blown flag football shorts are here to stay.

TUESDAY
Akron -9.5
Kent 10.5

Western Michigan -6.5
Central Michigan 6.5
SIX teams are still in contention in the MAC. Miami, Ohio and BGSU are 5-1, while WMU, Buffalo and Toledo are 4-2. So, this is an elimination game for WMU

Northern Illinois 2.5
Miami (OH) -2.5
And Miami OH has a lot riding on this one. They won over Ohio and lost to Toledo. So losing here and Toledo winning would be very bad for them

WEDNESDAY
Buffalo 2.5
Eastern Michigan -2.5
Elimination game for UB

Ohio 2.5
Toledo -2.5
Elimination game for Toledo. Ohio lost to Miami, so they're in bad shape if they lose

THURSDAY
North Carolina State 9
Georgia Tech -9
Bowl eligibility on the line for NC State. GT is 6-4 already and has Georgia on deck.

FRIDAY
Temple 16.5
UTSA -16.5

Purdue 13
Michigan State -13

UNLV -7.5
San Jose State 7.5
SJSU hung with Boise for 3 quarters, but couldn't keep it up. UNLV needs to win to keep their playoff and MWC hopes alive (and they need Colorado State to lose)

SATURDAY
Mississippi -10
Florida 10
Ole Miss beats Florida and 2-8 Cowbell, they're in. Lose and they're out

North Carolina -3.5
Boston College 3.5

Wake Forest 24
Miami -24
If Miami loses, they're out of the ACCCG

SMU -9.5
Virginia 9.5
SMU has @ UVA and v Cal. They could actually lose either game and still make the ACCCG, and their at-large hopes are pretty slim

UConn 10.5
Syracuse -10.5
Did anybody realize that these teams are a combined 14-6? Syracuse has a good chance to push that to 8-3 ahead of their home finale against Miami next weekend.

Sam Houston 6
Jacksonville State -6
Likely elimination game for SHSU. Richrod's gamecocks are 6-0 in CUSA but finish with two tough games in the four way race

Illinois 1
Rutgers -1
Illinois is 7-3 with Rutgers and Nothwestern to close. Penn State would love for them to finish 9-3 and ranked for that first top-25 win

Indiana 12.5
Ohio State -12.5
GOOGLE HIM

Iowa -6.5
Maryland 6.5

Massachusetts 42.5
Georgia -42

UTEP 41
Tennessee -41

Western Kentucky pk
Liberty pk
elimination game for Liberty. WKU very likely in with a win, very likely out with a loss

Charleston Southern 33.5
Florida State -33.5

Rice -6.5
UAB 6.5

Bowling Green -11.5
Ball State 11.5

James Madison -7
Appalachian State 7.5

New Mexico State 3.5
Middle Tenn. St -3.5

UNC Charlotte -2.5
Florida Atlantic 2.5

Louisiana-Monroe 3.5
Arkansas State -2.5

South Alabama -22.5
Southern Miss 22.5

Arizona 12.5
TCU -11.5

Florida International -8.5
Kennesaw State 9.5

East Carolina 3
North Texas -2.5

Tulsa 17.5
South Florida -16.5

San Diego State 4.5
Utah State -4.5

Kentucky 20.5
Texas -20.5
If Texas loses they fall out of the SECCG and have two losses with no top-25 wins

Georgia Southern 2.5
Coastal Carolina -2.5

Colorado -3
Kansas 3
Kansas was the unluckiest team in the country over the first half of the season, and has come roaring back, immolating the B12's at-large chances. Colorado has the inside track now, but a loss here would be very bad for them

Central Florida -3
West Virginia 3

Texas Tech -3.5
Oklahoma State 3.5

BYU 3.5
Arizona State -3.5
A legitimate semifinal game. The winner is in the B12 chip. if ASU loses, they're dead. If BYU loses , they're only mostly dead

Stanford 14
California -13.5
Nobody in the country is better at losing as a double digit favorite than the California Golden Bears.

Northwestern 12
Michigan -11.5

Penn State -12
Minnesota 12
Is Penn State in at 10-2, with no top-25 wins (but a lot of solid ones!) and a loss to mediocre Minnesota? Best not to tempt fate, but bubble teams will be watching this one closely

Wisconsin 2.5
Nebraska -2.5
Nebraska has lost something like 297 games in a row when sitting at 5 wins and looking for bowl eligibility. Can they finally break through?

Louisiana Tech 22
Arkansas -21.5

Wofford 42.5
South Carolina -42.5

Pittsburgh 8
Louisville -8
Winner has a good shot to end ranked, which probably doesn't matter, but is a slight boost to SMU/Clemson (Pitt) or SMU/Miami (Louisville) resumes

Missouri -7.5
Mississippi State 7.5

Troy 11.5
Louisiana-Lafayette -10.5

Army 14
Notre Dame -14
Army wins, and they have the inside track for the G5 playoff bid, and Notre Dame is out of the playoffs. ND wins, and Boise is still firmly in control, and the Irish are one game away from a bid.

Boise State -23
Wyoming 23

Washington State -13
Oregon State 13

Georgia State 20.5
Texas State -19.5

Baylor -7.5
Houston 8

Texas A&M -2.5
Auburn 2.5
ATM needs to win out to get a bid (and a spot in the SECCG!) Bubble teams are rooting for a loss here, then an upset of Texas in the finale

Alabama -13.5
Oklahoma 14
Bubble teams are rooting for the Sooners to pick up their second SEC win

Marshall 2.5
Old Dominion -2

Iowa State -6.5
Utah 6.5
If ISU wins out, they are extremely live in all the races

Vanderbilt 8
LSU -8

Cincinnati 8.5
Kansas State -8.5

Virginia Tech -3
Duke 3

Air Force 3.5
Nevada -3.5

Colorado State 3.5
Fresno State -3
Colorado ducks UNLV and Boise, so they control their own destiny. UNLV is rooting hard for the bulldogs

USC -4.5
UCLA 4.5
The prettiest game in football, home & homes in the rose bowl. USC needs to win at least 1 rivalry game to make a bowl, while UCLA needs this one and Fresno at home next week

Their must be some small chance ND loses close @SC but has beaten two conf champions in Army and A&M.

Against ND's full schedule (including USC and Army), a top-10 team would go 10-2 or better 91% of the time

For 10-2 Tennessee, that number is 62%

For 10-2 Penn State, that number is 84%

For 11-2 Miami that number is 80%

For 9-3 (!!!) Georgia, that number is 49%!!!!

11-2 BYU would play 7 top-40 teams. Notre Dame played 3. Notre dame played 5 teams ranked worse than 80 (and lost to one of them!), BYU played 1

Their power rating is 8th, a point away from being 10th. They are good for sure, but it's not like they are some unstoppable juggernaut

Certainly there is a CHANCE that they go at 10-2. If Ole Miss loses at Florida and Tennessee loses at Vandy, that's a great start. SMU losing @ UVA or v Cal then losing in the CG would also help. Clemson losing to South Carolina would eliminate them (Although might elevate USCe over ND too, so idk)

Committee jumped bama over Miami for no reason and didn't move Georgia up at all

that's from a practice son
notice how gabriel has the target jersey on
no worries
he will still be communicating the message of knight lanning

"There"

You shut your WHORE MOUTH!!!

I don't often do win totals but I need 1 more from these disappointing ***holes who've repeatedly gotten stupid lucky against opponents who are better than expected, and I bloody-well don't want to feel the sting of the Monarch next week!

There appears to be a "don't move anyone ahead with 2 fewer wins" rule in effect.

I do find it amusing that their top 7 exactly matches the AP and coaches' polls. Could pretty much phone it in.

They may be following the BCS proxy or something close to it. There are so many ranking systems readily available.