Trump 2nd term prediction thread

Because every person that did not vote for Harris in California increased the chances of Trump winning California. Trump winning California would increase the odds of Trump winning the presidency. How exactly is it that you don't understand this? I would hope I don't have to explain the problem with results-oriented thinking on a poker strategy message board, but just nudge me if I need to.

You are correct that everyone's vote is not of equal value. You are not correct that some votes are of zero value. And remember that we are not talking about the one person in isolation. We are talking about the concept of a person not voting for Harris multiplied by many others doing the same, which is why I explained that it was a contribution, not the catalyst. As I explained to you already.

I'm quite certain that you already knew I understood the electoral college just fine. It was very disingenuous of you to pretend I didn't. Given that I know that, it should have been very easy to intuit the point I was making without me having to walk you through it multiple times.

Yet you either could not or chose not. This does not speak highly of either your intellect or your intellectual honesty. I don't care which, frankly.

Trump had zero chance to win California. Harris won by 20 points.

I would be curious what you think Trump's chances of winning California were-- since apparently it must have been non-zero for you and how you would arrive at whatever number you think it is.

It's also interesting how you would claim that I'm being intellectually dishonest but then instead of just admitting that you're wrong you make up some pure nonsense about Trump's chances of winning California.

Come on Luckbox, it's your fault Trump got elected. Stop denying it.

Man up and take some responsibility.

Also elections aren't poker hands or even sporting events. There is absolutely nothing wrong with results oriented thinking. Election polling is a very inexact science and pollsters make huge mistakes all the time. It's not a situation where if you were to run it again you might get a different result. Hispanic males don't not to shift to Trump this election in an alternate universe.

This is a point worth underscoring. The odds of rolling a 6 on your next roll of a die (or that a hardware RNG will produce a certain output if you want to be pedantic) represent something fundamentally different to the odds it will rain tomorrow. One is essentially a random process with a probability distribution over its sample space, the other is a lack of sufficiently precise information. 60% Trump win certainly doesn't mean that if you somehow ran it 10 times you'd expect Harris to win 4. Trump still wins all 10 or Harris wins all 10.

Even with the electoral votes , your votes could count .
Let’s not pretend that perception in politics do not matter .
Those that didn’t vote permitted trump to win the popular votes .
Now in reality that didn’t change the resulted election but it sure can change the post election results by the largess trump will take to run this country having the argument to have the majority votes to do w.e he wants because some that could voted Harris didn’t ….

Ps: I was just adding this argument to your response at luckbox .

Jfc

Have you considered yet that one reason some people don’t like voting for Dems is because some of the most vocal Dems talk down to them like this?

Unless people did what Victor did and stayed home. His staying home increased trump's chances of winning California. Uncontroversially.

Greater than they would have been if Victor had voted for harris. This isn't hard.

Sure, but don't mistake the idea that something isn't a random event for it having zero chance of happening. Or that you can't increase the chance of it happening with action (or inaction).

It's cracking me up that I'm here trying to explain that someone that voted directly for harris is not more responsible for Trump getting elected than people that voted for Trump or doesn't vote at all.

Yet I have people lining up trying to make every excuse in the book for that to not be true. And then people trying to tell me that now it's because I'm too condescending when I explain this to them and so now that's why trump got elected.

Yes guys. Those people that voted for Trump or stayed home are not responsible for this. It's my fault, the one that voted against it. The amount of cope it takes to reflect responsibility this hard is actually hysterical.

Line up another one after this clown to explain to me how it's the Harris voters that got trump elected and not the trump voters and the stay-homers.

What a clown show.

You know there's a post on tiktok with thousands of likes and shares with a guy saying "it's confirmed! Trump said he's going to open up the keystone pipeline on day 1 of his administration. That will lower gas prices and that will lead to other prices coming down."

1) the keystone pipeline never closed. It's been running for decades
2) he's not referring to the xl shortcut. It was never even close to being built.
3) even if he was, opening that up would raise prices, not lower them, because it exposes that oil to new buyers, which increases demand without increasing supply.

Millions voted for Trump for reasons like this.

Id love for someone that believes a shortcut would lower oil prices to really think about that idea. It shouldn't take long to realize it's absurd. Doesn't generate more oil. Doesn't really speed up the movement of the oil (still the same amount going in and coming out). Do you think a shorter garden house gives you more water?

Ignorance is the problem. Absolutely nothing else. Ignorance.

Many people not turning out to vote for the party that scolds them, shock horror. Sheer ignorance, obviously.

I'm not the democratic party. So yes that would be another fantastic example of ignorance.

But you're probably right. Gorgonian was mean to ignorant facists actually polled higher than the keystone pipeline as a key issue.

It's been said elsewhere that you're a very good fit for the UP forum. They're also keen on coruscating the stupid voters for voting the wrong way.

Thanks for that update. Did you know I found a tiny plastic candy cane in the passenger seat of my car yesterday?

Did you bite it thinking it was a real candy cane?

No I gave it to a stranger and told them happy holidays. They said thank you and laughed. Then the whole parking lot clapped.

Do you think I should have traded it for some updog?

Well yes naturally, updog trumps plastic candy canes any day of the week as does updoc which is a slightly different variant. I only asked as once I saw dogshit on the passenger seat of the car I broke into but when I bit into it, it turned out to be novelty joke fake dogshit which in retrospect was probably lucky for me.

While ignorance is a factor, don’t underestimate their stupidity.

Trump is a known quantity. No one who voted for him can plead ignorance.

I think hyper progressive activism, of the type you support, turns people off Dems much more.