Trump 2nd term prediction thread
So, looks like Trump not only smashed the electoral college, but is looking on track to win the popular vote, which seems to be an unexpected turn of events, but a clear sign of the current temperature in the country and perhaps the wider world.
Would be interested to hear views on how his 2nd term will pan out from both sides of the aisle - major happenings, what he's going to get done, what he's not going to get done, the impact of his election on the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, whether his popularity will remain the same, wane, or increase, etc.
A bit of an anemic OP, I know, just interested to hear people's thoughts now that the election uncertainty is over.
You do still seem to be confusing it. You have touched on a general objection I've raised to bayes before.
I hope this discussion has helped you understand while all the data we have on many politcal things is close to no data when it comes to drawing a general conclusion about that thing.
What in the actual **** are you talking about?
Two problems with that: 1) Lmao, and 2) Nobody claimed adults were a good model for testing mask efficacy either.
Seriously. You're embarrassing yourself. Stop it.
"Human beings aren't a good model to test mask efficacy in real life situations" is quite the take.
Let's test how masks work in a lab with automatom and use the results to decide policy because team smart or something
Let's check the scoreboard for those pro-palestine "Harris didn't earn my vote" people to see how their choice to not keep trump out of office is going for them.
Pam Bondi: Pick to replace Matt Gaetz wants to deport pro-Palestine protestors
Benedict Smith
Fri, November 22, 2024 at 10:01 AM CST
oof
You're a single issue voter. Your issue is "bananas should be outlawed."
Republicans have always been 100% pro banana and will never listen to you no matter what. Democrats are also pro banana, but there are some exceptions and an anti-banana moment among potential democratic voters.
The Democrats run a candidate who is 100% pro banana, just as much of as any Republican. A politician can't be any more pro-banana than this person.
It's pretty rational to withhold your vote. If you create a condition where Democrats cannot win by being 100% pro banana, they must choose between continuing to lose elections or giving some ground to anti-banana people. If they can count on your vote no matter what they do, there is no reason for them to listen to you.
The 2 party system is terrible for these reasons. But just blindly voting for anyone "your" party puts in front of you probably isn't the best strategy to get them to consider your interests.
It's certainly not some big "own" to say, "lol you got 100% pro banana instead of 100% pro banana."
"Human beings aren't a good model to test mask efficacy in real life situations" is quite the take.
Let's test how masks work in a lab with automatom and use the results to decide policy because team smart or something
Didn't say a word about letting it decide policy, but yes, humans are notoriously bad in uncontrolled environments at using masks correctly. Have you ever seen them?
You are, again, making the classic mistake of using the effectiveness of mask mandates as a substitute for the effectiveness of masks. If you'd simply say "mask mandates" don't work, I would have a hard time disagreeing with you. But you don't. You say masks don't work. Which is stupid.
You know the difference, but repeatedly make the mistake.
Ask yourself why. Like I said, the only two options are unfathomable stupidity or intellectual dishonesty.
just blindly voting for anyone "your" party puts in front of you probably isn't the best strategy to get them to consider your interests.
Blindly?
Your post was stupid before I got to that ridiculous bit, of course. The point is not voting for Harris was profoundly stupid for their cause and they are now going to pay the price for it. Nothing else you said matters at all.
It's certainly not some big "own" to say, "lol you got 100% pro banana instead of 100% pro banana."
That's nice, but under no circumstances would voting for Harris have gotten them 100% pro banana. That's just profoundly ignorant.
I mean, if we bring this back to the real world, this is kind of where you went wrong by having a mental age of 6. And I don't mean coz bananas. I mean coz every single "single issue voter" is a bit of a moron.
I never claimed Walmart sells raw milk anywhere, but you do you.
As for gorgo, schoolchildren under teacher supervision follow rules more than adults do, that is uncontroversial.
If you think people in the office are going to use masks better than schoolchildren you have a model of the world where Iowa is Harris +3
.
You're a single issue voter. Your issue is "bananas should be outlawed."
Republicans have always been 100% pro banana and will never listen to you no matter what. Democrats are also pro banana, but there are some exceptions and an anti-banana moment among potential democratic voters.
The Democrats run a candidate who is 100% pro banana, just as much of as any Republican. A politician can't be any more pro-banana than this person.
It's pretty rational to withhold your vote. If you create a co
2 party system has this problem.
Multi party system has other problems. That nothing gets done unless there is a clear majority, which often won't happen.
I am on the team that prefers nothing to be done so I don't hate multi party systems.
But it's important to remind why they aren't always superior.
If you want a chance to get rapid change with a simple majority you can't get it in multiparty systems.
Like the left tried to legalize homosexual marriages in Italy, a small portion of the center left majority was social democratic Catholics, law didn't pass
Didn't say a word about letting it decide policy, but yes, humans are notoriously bad in uncontrolled environments at using masks correctly. Have you ever seen them?
.
Which is why only people with no clue about reality at all (=democrats) mandate them yes.
And btw if something doesn't work in real life it doesn't work full stop
Which is why only people with no clue about reality at all (=democrats) mandate them yes.
And btw if something doesn't work in real life it doesn't work full stop
Absolute nonsense. Mandates not being effective is not the same thing as "doesn't work in real life." If taking one aspirin pill every day prevented heart attacks, but mandating taking an aspirin every day didn't result in zero heart attacks nationwide, do you think that disproves "taking an aspirin pill every day prevents heart attacks?" Of course you don't. Unless you aren't very bright.
So, again, you are acting like you aren't very bright. Is it on purpose? Or is it that you just aren't very bright? The evidence is mounting for one of those two things.
I mean, if we bring this back to the real world, this is kind of where you went wrong by having a mental age of 6. And I don't mean coz bananas. I mean coz every single "single issue voter" is a bit of a moron.
I didn't make up that model myself. People smarter and more expert than any of us did. However, I think it's pretty obvious and probably a million people have thought of it independently.
It's another one of these things that isn't hard to understand at all. It's not about being a single issue voter as such, that just makes it simpler.
It doesn't show that withholding your vote is always right, or right in this case, but that it can be a logical strategy. People who understand this can have a reasonable discussion about if and when one should vote for what they believe to be the lesser evil. Some will be more inclined to a lesser evil vote, and some will be more inclined to withhold. Anyway, it's a reasonable discussion to have from one case to the next.
It's also something to think about when analyzing elections or planning election strategies. It's also shows a weakness of the 2 party system.
So back to STEM degree holders, knowing that they skew male exceptionally more than all other degree holders, that will skew them pro trump more than other degree holders, unless other mechanisms are identified that more than compensate for that skew that exists in the whole of society.
So you need to find other measurable elements that skew pro democrat, which STEM degree holders have more than all other degree holders, to try to counter that undeniable pro trump biased linked to male-ness
This was already explained. Whatever it is it’s the same reason advanced degree holders vote Dem more than women.
Which is why only people with no clue about reality at all (=democrats) mandate them yes.
And btw if something doesn't work in real life it doesn't work full stop
Just to help you out, the solution, once again, is education. Mandates don't work because people think masks don't work (because of dfs like you) so they don't bother being diligent with it. If everyone were educated about it they would be more likely to make the correct decisions and mask voluntarily. I do not support mask mandates nor vaccine mandates. I support education and fighting dis- and misinformation.
Which is why I'll never stop correcting yours.
"Human beings aren't a good model to test mask efficacy in real life situations" is quite the take.
Let's test how masks work in a lab with automatom and use the results to decide policy because team smart or something
Would seat belt , being mandatory but suffering no consequences if you didn’t wear it properly or not all all , be effective as much as proven in « laboratory » ?
I suspect they made seat belt mandatory for a reason ….
Would seat belt , being mandatory but suffering no consequences if you didn’t wear it properly or not all all , be effective as much as proven in « laboratory » ?
They proved it in real life, seatbelts I like mask, of you click them in even if you sit wrong, or move them around you and so on, like normal people do, still help.
Masks don't and to be clear, it's very probable masks are actually bad (one they increase health risks) when normal peoe use them.
Which is why the normal counsel was not to use one unless you were a trained professional
They proved it in real life, seatbelts I like mask, of you click them in even if you sit wrong, or move them around you and so on, like normal people do, still help.
Masks don't and to be clear, it's very probable masks are actually bad (one they increase health risks) when normal peoe use them.
Which is why the normal counsel was not to use one unless you were a trained professional
Utter nonsense. Masks work when worn correctly. No one advises you not to use them unless you are a trained professional because it takes 1 second to learn to use a mask properly. There is no circumstance where wearing a mask increases health risks. Stop spreading ignorance.
Now you are just making up lies. Are you doing that on purpose? Is it done because you are not very bright or intellectually dishonest? Or, as others have suggested, both?
Just to help you out, the solution, once again, is education. Mandates don't work because people think masks don't work (because of dfs like you) so they don't bother being diligent with it. If everyone were educated about it they would be more likely to make the correct decisions and mask voluntarily. I do not support mask mandates nor vaccine mandates. I support education and fighting dis- and misinformation.
Which is why I'll never stop correcting yours.
Solution isn't education same as telling people "if you exercise your health gets better" doesn't work.
You can keep telling that to them, it is objectively true, but it doesn't do anything. Actually it can very easily be detrimental, because you (a democrat ) telling that to them automatically will make them act against your counsel because they (for very good reasons) hate you deeply and mistrust you completely.
Have you thought about that? The fact that even if you tell the truth you (your tribe, tour team) are so toxic and hated by people it would be better for them if you kept your mouth shut.
It's not that they don't know, it's that the cost of executing is excruciatingly high and the vast majority of people don't give a ****.
Especially if it's about paying a cost to help others, they don't do it for themselves, imagine for ****ing strangers.
That's real life.
Solution isn't education same as telling people "if you exercise your health gets better" doesn't work.
You can keep telling that to them, it is objectively true, but it doesn't do anything. Actually it can very easily be detrimental, because you (a democrat ) telling that to them automatically will make them act against your counsel because they (for very good reasons) hate you deeply and mistrust you completely.
Have you thought about that? The fact that even if you tell the truth you (your trib
You're so unbelievably stupid it hurts to read your words.