Maximizing OOP and overbet theory
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
Table is a bunch of loose passives and one or two nits, V is the only remotely competent player.
V - You
Okay another question I have here then as people seem to not like the stop and go OTT.
Solver says if I check turn and it goes check-check and river bricks, THEN overbet shoving is good. Why is it good now but not OTT?
If the turn goes check-check, it caps V's range going to the river, and we'll have lots of potential bluffs, so V will have to do a fair bit of bluff-catching, and our over-bet on the river is polarized to a very strong hand or a bluff.
The main thing that's wrong with your check-call-flop-donk-jam-turn line is that it effectively gives your opponent a free look at the turn. Think about it - you could have jammed for $370 on the flop over his $70 bet. Instead, you flat called the $70, let him see the turn, then donk-jammed for $300 after the turn was dealt.
It's also sort of announcing, "I flopped huge and am making a nonsensical delayed check-raise by donking", or "I turned the world". It's like some weird OMC move.
The donk is non-sensical because the 7d on the turn is mostly a brick in this 3B pot. Like, what additional equity does V pick up on this card, that would make us want to jam rather than risk him checking back? If we were worried about V being on a draw, why not check-raise the flop?
If we happened to turn a set with 77 or 2P with Q7 or 87, wouldn't we want to check-raise the turn, to get another street of value, rather than donk-over-bet-jam, and fold out all his bluffs?
It was lucky V happened to flop TPTK, and couldn't let it go. I doubt most opponents would call the jam without at least TPTK here, but many would continue to bluff or bet worse for value on this very wet and dynamic board.
Okay another question I have here then as people seem to not like the stop and go OTT.
Solver says if I check turn and it goes check-check and river bricks, THEN overbet shoving is good. Why is it good now but not OTT?
Because the geometric size on the river is all in.
I'm surprised no one's talking about pf. How good do we think our 8s are vs his 3! range? .
I too am surprised I had to scroll so far about pre flop. Are pros really calling 3bets oop with with 88 and 8:1 implied odds?
