Maximizing OOP and overbet theory
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
Table is a bunch of loose passives and one or two nits, V is the only remotely competent player.
V - You
Okay another question I have here then as people seem to not like the stop and go OTT.
Solver says if I check turn and it goes check-check and river bricks, THEN overbet shoving is good. Why is it good now but not OTT?
If the turn goes check-check, it caps V's range going to the river, and we'll have lots of potential bluffs, so V will have to do a fair bit of bluff-catching, and our over-bet on the river is polarized to a very strong hand or a bluff.
The main thing that's wrong with your check-call-flop-donk-jam-turn line is that it effectively gives your opponent a free look at the turn. Think about it - you could have jammed for $370 on the flop over his $70 bet. Instead, you flat called the $70, let him see the turn, then donk-jammed for $300 after the turn was dealt.
It's also sort of announcing, "I flopped huge and am making a nonsensical delayed check-raise by donking", or "I turned the world". It's like some weird OMC move.
The donk is non-sensical because the 7d on the turn is mostly a brick in this 3B pot. Like, what additional equity does V pick up on this card, that would make us want to jam rather than risk him checking back? If we were worried about V being on a draw, why not check-raise the flop?
If we happened to turn a set with 77 or 2P with Q7 or 87, wouldn't we want to check-raise the turn, to get another street of value, rather than donk-over-bet-jam, and fold out all his bluffs?
It was lucky V happened to flop TPTK, and couldn't let it go. I doubt most opponents would call the jam without at least TPTK here, but many would continue to bluff or bet worse for value on this very wet and dynamic board.