The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

Sure! 😀

What do you think about this one? (All the cards are opened, i DID open my opponent's cards, because in a normal poker game, you can't see what software DOES on a postflop - cards of your opponent are HIDDEN in a normal game)

Cyclicity of opponent's flop hitting

Conclusion

What do you think about this one?

I mean - when we don't see cards of players, software just put our opponent into a flop combinations pair or better
- when our starter is "good"! -

And the software DOES NOT put our opponent into a flop combinations pair or better (not to ruin flop hitting frequency > 32,4%!)
- when our starter is "bad"! -

Since self-made excel sheets are apparently evidence, how about this shocking stat...

Thats some solid evidence you are actually 100% wrong right there.

Haha, great work btw, but where are borders and colors? Would be more comfortable to watch.

Man, you saw this phrase in my message : "I'm an expert level poker player and, also, a professional financial risk analyst (insurance) in the past."

But how did you miss this one?

"I find it important that you, guys, should be able to work with all the materials I provide for your overview. Here is a link to a google drive (link below) where you can find:

1. A text version of the video in ENG/RUS (MS Excel format)
2. The statistics in MS Excel format, very comfortable to work with, to watch hands, to check anything you would like to
3. A detailed description of the software algorithm (Ipoker net, Red Star Poker room)
4. A copy of the main youtube video
5. Some other materials/documents which are necessary to be presented in this kind of situations
drive.google.com/drive/folders/1FfwlH8R7nBEODKlpcUgsGmyH6qjkis9z?usp=drive_link

Look at that: "Video-evidence of sit-out hands played in Red Star Poker room". A record of every hand from iPoker client program

I'm not going to download something from a lunatic like yourself, next thing the boards are rigged against me as well😉

This is so interesting guys I'm learning a lot

Okay, good.
Guys, for people who can read (we all can read since we are 5 years old 😃, you know), but also can Understand, what they read - those tables above looks pretty strange. Looks like the software tries to make two players totally equal on a heads up game to convert their money into the room's commission, right? (winning a game one by one to commission melt down)

So I open sit-out hands.

Guys - once I open hands of my opponent because Playtech PLC (the developer and the owner of iPoker) decided not too "auto-fold" sit-out hands (a mistake of programmers. Flutter Entertainment PLC - the developer and the owner of Pokerstars - BLOCKs a possibility to see a hand of your opponent being in a sit-out mode)

I see the following stuff:

The question is -

Is it normal, that once I opened hands of my opponent by luck (he went sit-out during the game)

and he HITS 9 of 11 FLOPS? In stead of 32% expected?

Any ideas?

my idea is that a sample size of 11 wouldnt hold up in court

Against two connected cards (J 10) I calculate the opponent's 181 hands at 80% or higher are connecting within 2.28 standard deviations from the mean (~88 to 1). Against suited connectors just slightly above 2 (~48 to 1).

Agree here.

Ok, if I play and watch every game cone - did my opponent hit the flop?

This is how it looks (just an example!) something like a random flop hitting:

Did he hit the flop?

yes - no - no - no - yes - yes - no - yes - no - no - no - yes - no - no - no - no - yes - yes - no ... and so on

Guys, this is how it looks if I open those hands (where i managed to hack the soft of Ipoker - check sit-out hands)

Did the opponent hit the flop?

[heads up game started BB = 20 to 40 chips] no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-no-[the game goes, I have got a huge stack and going to win soon, BB = 50 to 100 chips already] yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes-yes

Lol... This hero-opp starts to hit the flop in a crazy way once BB became bigger.

So - what are the chances to see such a variance (deviations of the mean 32,4%, you know) of the flop hitting frequency on a 500 flops distance.

I just watch which "splashes" and "decreases" of the flop hitting do I see on the distance (on low BBs - a decrease, the opponent does not hit anything. On big BBs - he hits like a crazy animal - a splash appears)

Here these splashes are:

Guys, we see 10 huge waves 😮 on a 500 flops distance.

A chance to get at least one of these 10 (!) waves you see in the column named "Chances of the wave to appear".

Do you see the first one (Wave 1)?

The opponent hits 8 flops of 12 (66,7%). Chances to meet this stuff are 21,5%.
[To be more precise - This wave of flop hitting frequency dispersion happens on a distance of 431 flop in 21,5% cases]

BUT. We got on the same distance as many as 10 waves SIMULTANEOUSLY.

What are the chances to get 10 such deviations of 32,4% on the same distance. In simple terms, it's 21,5% * 58,4% (watch wave #2 data) * 47,0% * 15,8% * 8,5% * 48,0% * 10,0% * 26,3% * 20,2% * 8,7% = 0,000021% or once in 5 000 000 of 500 flops reshuffled. Means - such a statistical hell 😵 (such a significant opponent's flop hitting frequency deviation on a distance of 500 flops) happens once in 2,5 billion hands (5 000 000 * 500).

Let's stop here? Any questions. Are additional comments necessary?
Well, guys, you can misunderstand something, it's normal, since you see this the first time?

I'm assuming this is all in preflop and only one opponent continued.

Do you mean preflop dealing process, or the flop hitting? Against our connectors?

1. Preflop hand dealing/flop hitting (32,4%)?
2. You watch my hand/opp hand?
3. Hand range JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o (and "suited" hands, another check)?
4. Stack size 80%, i see

(I didn't manage to filter this in "HU sit out RS data" sheet to get 181 hand)

The only way you see your opponent's cards is if you go to showdown. So if this isn't all in preflop typically most players who didn't hit a pair or a draw would fold to a bet and you would get a disproportionate number of hands at showdown who hit the flop.

Yes, you are totally right.

But, the problem is that my opponent was "sit-out" (you know, my opponent has left PC).

I just checked the flop - he auto-checked back,
I checked the turn - he auto-checked back the turn,
I checked the river - he auto-checked back the the river,

Man. This would be right in my situation if I only saw SOME flops which went to showdown - then, yes - he will usually come to a showdown been hited the flop.

But in my case I can see EVERY flop, every turn, and every river. Each game cone. So I can reasonably check, how often and when does my opponent hits the flop.

And once I managed to open hands in iPoker - i see that the software deals as many "good" flops for my opponent as he needs to get his stack back. And software simply ruins a flop hitting frequency on high BBs in a crazy way.

And this fits to the aim of the room's owner - maximize the commission. Software tries to help the opp to win the game.

In case we play and i win all the games - the room gets (for example we play 1$ Heads-up and my opponent got 20$ bankroll)

2$ (prize poo) * 10% (commission of the room) * 20 games = 4$

But if the software manages to equalize our game and to let us win one by one we lose all the money been melt down to a commission.

200 games of a draw (100-100) = 40$ income as a commission for the room.

10 times more income (40$ and 4$).

And the software tries to reach this aim by dealing him "good" flops. It could only happen randomly once in 8,5 trillion game cones.
Pure rigging of the game for the extra profit of the room.

You've cracked the case!

I once had a person who worked for a site I forget which one could have been bovada tell me something. I was complaining that people hit too many flops and he said yes true but if the site did not make that happen the game would be boring and people would play less.
I also used to prop games for one of the site not in business now. When I prop I have to be in touch with site cuz they tell u what tables to go to. The guy who worked at the site said after the stuff he seen working there he would never play online poker.

I would agree most recreational players want more action. Playing live only until recently, I know that's the biggest mistake recreational players make, playing too many hands. And I'm sure those who play primarily online have that problem too when they play live.

The second reason is to finish the tournament in a reasonable time. How many are willing to play 12 hours straight? Not many recreational players are willing to do that especially on a regular basis. And when you have 1500 - 2000 entrees it going to be a long tournament. 150 player tournaments at Aria and Venetian take 10 to 12 hours and I don't believe online poker deals 10 times more hands in a given time.

Wow.

It's not literally like that, but you can see it's too rare not to inform Gambling supervision authorities.
Once we managed to open hands and to see that we don't see in a normal game (we just fold before a showdown) - it shows pure rigging of the game.

Well, I described all the algorithm of the software, but it will take some time before enough people understand what's going on.
The only way to stop the fraud faster - Curacao/The UK/Russia block iPoker.

In case they decide to "skip" my materials this is a sign of that online-gambling market is totally unregulated. And it's unacceptable. But I did all i could, guys. I can't do more.

Do you think the insurance market is rigged?

Btw what happens when you make online poker illegal. Everyone stops playing, right? £2.7bn -£4.1bn reasons why that's wrong.

Well, look.
The insurance market in Russia was rigged, yes ))) They say, huge financial organizations in Russia used insurance companies for money laundering. I don't know what is going on nowadays though.

Regarding online-poker.
People who lose money, will find the way to lose it. Yes, some people will keep playing.
But it's important to save lifetime of that part of players - who could find better ways to live their lifes.

Important : Not Everyone would waste his life and money in online-poker in case he knew the game is rigged.
Me personally - I try to help these people, cause i was one of them. I managed to stop a life waste in time, but i still lost some years of my active life for this.

Save us all! You are saving lives!

TeflonDawg... We have already discussed that.

1. We don't need to save regular players, they do win. It's all good. And what's bad in that you win? Nothing. That is why rigging is good for you.
And here, on the forum, it's not forbidden to be agreed with rigging. All the regular players can just type (look, i type what i want btw, it's easy!) - "ONLINE POKER IS RANDOM AND IS FAIR". Sign.

THAT is WHY - I sent it to gambling supervisors. There is no need to discuss with guys, who win money playing rigged game, if they agree with this. It's not reasonable to ask!

2. I do not save lives. I try to save lifetime. It's different 😀

save your breath

See the problem becomes I do not think it's rigged. But when you ask any sight about their dealing they always say it's fair, they never say it's random. And this is how they get around it. So for example if I deal you pocket aces more often than you should get it there's no problem with that as long as I deal everybody else the same amount of times. I mean if one guy is getting pocket aces way more often than everybody else then there could be a problem. So then when their site gets audited they go well it's fair even though everybody's getting pocket aces more often than they should it's still Fair as long as everybody's getting that. And by the way yes insurance is rigged