The great "Poker is rigged" debate - Collected threads edition

the fact with looking in a tracker of how your AK does vs AQ is flawed because you only get to see the times his AQ went to showdown.
Maybe villain folded some AQ winners that are now not being looked at etc

They (rooms) certainly do this, but to prove this you need to get a pretty big amount of different players account information.

I have already analyzed a lot of different "all-ins playing" issues. But didn't manage to find any significant violations.

The most important thing to understand is that a room will never manipulate the game "openly". I mean, if you wanna find something, you need to "open opponents hands" somehow.

And Slugant's statement proves it - once you don't see an opponent's hand you can't assess any deviations in card dealing process.

So all the "crazy rigging stuff" is going mainly on a postflop with "closed then mucked" hands.

Agree with you, yes, the only way of analysis is a preflop all-ins monitoring.
Otherwise, players decisions on a postflop influence on the "result of observation".

but how does the pokersite know when a player will muck the cards?
if they only rig non-showdown hands (once again, how do they know this beforehand, and you cant rig a hand after everyone's folded) the only way to play 100% fair poker in your opinion is to go to showdown each hand.. good luck 😉

I mean, even if they rig postflop, we can't see every hand. So it's impossible to prove rigging.
Software doesn't even need to predict that, since in a normal game noone will come to a showdown every single pot.
As a result - there is no evidence available.

Lol, you are the first man, who finally described the point of "possible" game play vs a rigged room by the way ))
Yeah, the only way to play in this case - push/fold.
At the end of my online gaming I totally moved to hyper-turbo tournaments - short SnGs, Spins, heads-ups, Double or nothing.

I played "slow" structure tournaments on Partypoker before. And my aggressive postflop gaming ended with just been killed by the software on each buble. I didn't manage to go through it to get prizes. My ROI stopped at 20%-30% mark and I had to leave the room.

I swear I've noticed on ACR and ClubGG that I ran amazingly good for a short period of time post deposit.

Followed by down swing.

Could be normal.

Could be rigged.

Hard to say it's unlike any live session I've had.

The people who take hard and fast: ''this could NEVER happen!'' are incredibly naive or shills for the online poker corporations.

OF COURSE it's possible.

I don't care how certified anything is. When you're talking about 1,000,000,000s of dollars... Yes, bending the system is incredibly likely. And it would be easy.

Just my 2c

Well it could be possible. Definitely not easy to do but yes when lots of money is on line anything can be done.
i would be more cautious if smaller sites with less volume. They have less liquidity and would suffer more from winners crushing and withdrawing. Bigger sites don't have that worry.
Example that Phil galfond talked about. Say someone deposited 1k. The site won't actually have 1k due to fees. So they may be $950. Multiply that by saying 20 player. Now u got a deficit of $1,000. So to would take time to recover that. Not a problem for a site with lots of volume. Could be a problem for
a smaller site.

It may be both disappointing to you and also true.

The problem with this is every site has players claiming this. Literally all of them

I tell everyone I play if they truly think they're being cheated, then leave immediately and never come back. I would never play on a site that I thought was cheating me out of money

Apparently they'd rather just keep handing away their money and then come here to complain about it

The funniest thing about it is I'll even suggest they play on a different site (one I'm also playing at) and I've actually seen players do this. Imagine how that experience went for them? Over two decades of this lmfao

I concur. If you feel like you're being cheated just stop. I'm really not complaining just chiming in with my worthless two cents.

I just feel like it's all a little, well.... "Sus"?

Funny clubGG is owned by nsus.

Most of the modern day sites have casino and/or sports betting site accompanied by the poker side. They rake large sums from other betting so it's highly doubtful liquidity comes an issue to any size of a poker site. Only situations whereas liquidity may become a problem is what happened to Full Tilt 😆

Man, I react cause we have already discussed this.

"Definitely not easy to do"

Man, all you need to know about how iPoker and Pokerstars do this you can see in details - watching just one video. This is HOW it works, I described everything and confirmed by the actual statistics. I also sent it to 10 Gambling supervision authorities (10 countries) to notify the world's society about what is going on. This is not a "question" any more. It's opened and described from "A" to "Z".

https://www.twoplustwo.com/Discussion-of...

"Bigger sites don't have that worry."

We have already discussed this stuff in this thread a bit earlier, when I had to comment this so that guys would understand the profit of the room a bit better.

"In case we play and i win all the games - the room gets (for example we play 1$ Heads-up and my opponent got 20$ bankroll)

2$ (prize pool) * 10% (commission of the room) * 20 games = 4$

But if the software manages to equalize our game and to let us win one by one we lose all the money been melt down to a commission.

200 games of a draw (100-100) = 40$ income as a commission for the room.

10 times more income (40$ and 4$)."

Man, it's a question of 1,000,000,000 income OR 10,000,000,000 income. And every business owner knows this perfectly. Just no doubts here. This is just an "income calculation" of business. Every manager does it before implementing any changes in the company. Profitability of any "move" is calculatable - here it's about 9,000,000,000 $.

😃

GG poker ontario is stupid rigged... it literally only helps out super fish and then the boosted bot accounts.. if you are a regular real human like me not working for GG you will win about 25% of the profit you really should.... the player pool sucks i should be crushing

Guys, I posted this in my topic, to make it a bit fresher, since I haven't got something new from Supervision authorities.

But I also post something here too, just to full fill "The debate" with some funny and relevant info 😃

These are my first 50 tournaments played in any room after a break in gaming. Or right after the first registration in the online-poker casino

Almost all of this - Sit&Go tournaments (from 45 to 180 entries). Is it normal? ��

In the start of gaming in any room I try to get used to a software, try to remember what poker is... It's a joke to discuss if I played really well there.

Always winning first 50 tournaments?? You kidding me.. ))

Any ideas? 🤐 😃

At least I officially proved that my average ROI level is around 150%... Or more? 😮 )))
I'm kind of a poker God from now on

Seriously. Almost every room's website got links to "responsible gaming" but at the same time, they just involve people to play the game. Great social behavior ))

Yeah, well, 'new account rungood' has been a long time joke among online players. I remember having crazy one on stars. gg poker not particularly, always seemd a bit more normal in that sense. So basically just anecdotes.

It's something that is nearly impossible to prove. That would require hand histories of very large numbers of freshly created accounts. Altought it's nice someone actually have statistics showing up their deposit rungood in numbers.

The BB 3 bet my CO open and I then 4 bet with AA. The BB jammed with 2-6 off which I called. The board ran out 2-6-9-5-Q. No more debate, the verdict is in. Rigged. Need I post more examples? /sarc

Man.
Partypoker 2018.

Nickname - Johnmir
Average field size - 343 players
Average ROI - 15%
50 tournaments played

Let's check tournament variance calculator results:

A chance to lose after 50 tournaments played is 54,57%.

Just to estimate it fast, let's take all other cases according to 50% of loss chances for each of 9 tries to play after a half year break.

A chance to win 8 or 9 runs of 9 tries is :

1,95%. Well, this is not a SURE rigging. But it's very close to it. And it's not about "the distance is not big enough", it's about "chances for the variance" = 1,95%.

how do we know you are not rigging your own numbers?

everyone can fill in an excel sheet with numbers like allin 50% fact 88,9%

from an outsider perspective, what do you think is more believable? That many pokersites are all rigging (seemingly against the same low stakes player for some reason) or that that person is making up numbers in his head to show everyone he is not just simply terrible at poker?

@Johnmir:
Don't answer this guy. It is obvious that he is a desinformation cultie.
He is framing his question, making us believe as if he is talking for the community by saying crap like "how do WE know you are not rigging your own numbers?"
It ain't "we" dude. It is you alone making assumptions. Followed by the typical framing of poker players being "terrible at poker" just because they have critical concerns.

Instead of a normal reaction of a human, that would indeed feel concerned too and be sceptical, you just provide a non critical biased agenda that is supported by defamation.

If WE see one thing for sure, than it is that comments like yours are really just air disappearing in space. Means, it's trolling crap.

I play poker since 17 years and deposit rungoods are a fact. I just had three within 2 months. And it is not impossible to prove, it happens in reality.

Phenom Poker 300 to 1.700 to 200

PokerBros 500 to 1000 to 0

Betonline also 100% +

Extreme ups all followed by extreme downswings. NOTHING in between.

I had them in the past:

Stars 2.000 to 26K with a fresh account of my ex girlfriend, because I couldn't win on my own.
That win followed by the worst MTT nightmare downswing over months in my life.
Coming to someone that at that time crushed Party in te longrun over a 12 moths period, grinding 6 days a week 15+ Mtts a day.

Party 225 to 50K
Titan 1.000 to 16 K
and so on
Managed to turn 100 $ into 10.000 three times or so.

I ran 200 buyins under EV on stars in sngs. 200 fkn hundered !!!

Lost like 20 headsups in Spins on Bros in a row. (As a former Spin Legends Gold member)

Just Lost like 20 "flips" + in a row in Spins on Bros where I was mostly ahead where I went from 1K to zero playing with a 50 buyin brm PLO cg.

People should stop ignoring the fact that these things exist. And it is NOT just variance.
Pokersites have a high incentive of balancing equities, and rigging these games.

Just because some of you are not experiencing it, doesn't mean others are not getting bend over a barrel.
But maybe some of you like it. Sometimes I get the impression, that there are lots of psychopaths and sociopaths in the poker community. Especially the payed cultie guys that are hired to spread their biased agenda in communities, to enforce the "variance" myths and the "you just play terrible" crap. People that constantly focus on "ad hominem" attacks in conversations, that lack empathy and try to discredit everyone that has a certain viewpoint. We have them in YouTube comments as well as in poker forums. Scumbags.

People that get it in good and lose over and over again are not bad, or terrible. It is the opposite. They crush, and are not allowed to win, because they get scammed. Period.

Look, if you play tournaments, you can calculate all this using the tournament variance calculator

https://www.primedope.com/tournament-var...

My story on Pokerstars:

I played 7$ SnGs.

And made a run of 169 tournaments. 90% ROI ( = 1065$ profit / 7$ / 169 tourneys )

After this run i played 340 next tournaments and made 2% ROI (48$ profit)

Now look. Let's say my real ROI level is 15% (or any other - it's not important here, actually)

Then

A chance to hit such a high ROI=90% (an up streak) is around 0.1% (You can see that 99.7% confidence level gives max 83.28%. But I made even more. I made 90%. So it's less then 0.3% chances to hit it.)

Now let's check my down streak of 2% ROI for the next 340 tournaments with the same Expected ROI = 15%

You can see that a chance to make from -3.30% to 34.12% is 30% (70% confidence level here). I made 2%. So, I hit something like 35%.

In total, means,
I could accidentally hit 90% ROI (169 tourneys) and then 2% ROI (340 tourneys) one by one

= 0.1% * 35% = 0.035% (1/0.035% = 4 times of 10 000 tries to replay 500 tournaments again and again)

So, there are two possible cases:

1. I'm a highly profitable player - then why don't I win much on a long distance?
2. Rooms just rig the game to involve new players into the game

Thank you for sharing this information, MagRailPro! It's important, actually. Cause since we all keep silence about the fraud - it will continue forever.

where does it say in the variance calculator that there are 2 possible cases which are you being a profitable player but not winning much or you play rigged rooms (somehow all of them)?

I want to read this fact but it doesnt show in your screenshot. It probably just cut off because I know you wouldnt make up that fact. It would have also probably shown possiblity number 3 (i.e. the correct one), namely that the observation and input is heavily flawed and not factual

Do you mean that 0,035% is just an accident?

Any other ideas?

I played 169 tournaments and made 90% ROI. Then I played 340 tournaments and made 2% ROI.

If the game is random, how did I manage to do 90% ROI then?

Even if I input 30% ROI, I get a chance to hit 90% lower then 5% (95% confidence level covers only 78,86% ROI, not 90%, look)

I haven't got all the tournaments recorded. Only 55 + 340 of them.

first 55 (of those 169) - 100%+ ROI btw, it's fun, since I play after a 3 years of break

and 340 next (2% ROI, lol)

Holdem manager shows a bit more then 2%. But it's a bit wrong. Some tournaments were somehow mixed, i think. Because I manually record the results of any tournament in my automated excel data base.

In fact, i don't think I should prove something with Holdem Manager nor Graphs here, since it's a forum, it's not a court. You can refuse to count the information. I don't see a problem here (i'm serious, really, you can just make a conclusion that I lie. But you can't say "you lie" since you can't prove that.)