A thread for unboxing AI
The rapid progression of AI chatbots made me think that we need a thread devoted to a discussion of the impact that AI i
And in real life right now, it's not like people living without any need to work are more depressed than the general population or anything like that, are they? even controlling by age.
Are "trust fund" kids without goals more than the general population? early retirees?
This question could be answered if only someone who spends most of his days writing 100 medium to long posts on the internet went out and got a job and reported back to us.
There is far more abundance and material prosperity in the Western world than there was 100 years ago. But that increased abundance hasn't resulted in people finding more meaning in their children and grandchildren than they did in the past.
We are talking post scarcity and material abundance without work
Like being absolutely certain no matter what you can live comfortably and your offspring will as well. Yes ofc with 80k USD you live far better now than a farmer did 500 years ago, but the farmer was quite certain of his future circumstances, like he didn't have housing or unemployment problems in the possible scenarios.
Financial anxiety is the number 1 stressor
This week Capital One released the results of a new CreditWise survey, in connection with National Get Smart About Credit Day. The results found that finances are the number-one cause of stress (73%) — more than politics (59%), work (49%) and family (46%).
Younger generations are even more stressed out about finances than older generations with the majority of Gen Z’ers (82%) and millennials (81%) saying finances are at least somewhat stressful.
https://www.cnbc.com/select/73-percent-o...).
We are talking a future model of reality where the random bottom of the pile human lives FAR BETTER than a 100k household today does in the USA in a normal county. Like far far better, like if 100k were per person, guaranteed with COLA from government, at 0 work.
We are talking knowing you will have a comfortable life and your children as well in 4-5 sigma scenarios. Current life isn't like that , not even remotely, not even for the upper middle class.
Now with actual material abundance in post scarcity (again i define that as livign with the certainty that very comfortable material needs will be always satisfied at 0 work for your and your heirs), my guess is that family formation and fertility will grow, and become again a major source of meaning for people.
I could be wrong but i wanted to qualify my comment
Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke told employees in a memo that they’ll have to show jobs can’t be done by artificial intelligence before asking for more headcount and resources.
Now with actual material abundance in post scarcity (again i define that as livign with the certainty that very comfortable material needs will be always satisfied at 0 work for your and your heirs), my guess is that family formation and fertility will grow, and become again a major source of meaning for people.
I could be wrong but i wanted to qualify my comment
Ok, but the facts remains that, as of now, there is no observable positive correlation between actual/perceived financial security and finding more meaning in children and grandchildren. You of course are free to to predict a radical shift on that point.
I personally would rate coerced propagation as more likely than what you are predicting, at least until we get to the point of radical life extension or digitized consciousness.
Ok, but the facts remains that, as of now, there is no observable positive correlation between actual/perceived financial security and finding more meaning in children and grandchildren. You of course are free to to predict a radical shift on that point.I personally would rate coerced propagation as more likely than what you are predicting, at least until we get to the point o
Well i just posted a graph showing that with actual abundance, women make more children
Pretty much all of them, in fact.
I don't know where you got your chart from or what exactly it purports to show, but historically there has been an inverse relationship between fertility and income, both within countries and between countries. Here is a link to data from Statista that shows fertility rates within the U.S. by income for 2021.
I don't know where you got your chart from or what exactly it purports to show, but historically there has been an inverse relationship between fertility and income, both within countries and between countries. Here is a link to data from Statista that shows fertility rates within the U.S. by income for 2021.
the source of the data and who made the chart are all writte on the bottom of the chart.
The chart was made exactly because the bracketing at "over 200k" you linked here obfuscates the fact that at much higher levels fertility actually increases.
Over 200k is VERY far from "i am 100% sure i will be able to live very comfortably without ever working a single day anymore and my heirs will be comfortable as well"
the source of the data and who made the chart are all writte on the bottom of the chart.The chart was made exactly because the bracketing at "over 200k" you linked here obfuscates the fact that at much higher levels fertility actually increases.Over 200k is VERY far from "i am 100% sure i will be able to live very comfortably without ever working a single day anymore and my hei
I can't find the underlying data to see if I think the chart is accurate, but I did find other articles which suggested that fertility rates start to go back up for the very wealthy. In any case, if you turn out to be correct, I suspect it will be because there are fewer women (and men) working full time, and therefore fewer people will be delaying families to pursue careers. That's obviously not unrelated to how much wealth you have already accumulated.
I can't find the underlying data to see if I think the chart is accurate, but I did find other articles which suggested that fertility rates start to go back up for the very wealthy. In any case, if you turn out to be correct, I suspect it will be because there are fewer women (and men) working full time, and therefore fewer people will be delaying families to pursue careers.
yes that would be a key part of it, especially for women.
Robots ran alongside humans at the Yizhuang half marathon in Beijing on Saturday.
Twenty-one humanoid robots, designed by Chinese manufacturers, raced next to thousands of runners completing the 21km (13-mile) course.
The winner was Tiangong Ultra, which crossed the line in two hours, 40 minutes and 42 seconds.
Some robots completed the race, while others struggled from the beginning. One robot fell at the starting line and lay flat for several minutes before getting up and taking off.
This race has been billed as the world's first robot half marathon.
tick tock
Gtp 4 2 years ago was like 25% .
This level of performance is "best worldwide" at the high school level, math olympic gold winners (high school) or close to that
I saw a bunch of bilboards in San Francisco advertising AI support with the reduced payroll angle. Felt incredibly dystopian.
We use an internal AI a lot to query and/or organize information from our internal documentation and its pretty incredible. Not the type of thing that will take jobs, yet, but a big efficiency boost.
It can help with coding as well but its nowhere near commercial levels but due to the nature of much of our development commercial solutions can't be used, yet.
I still see AI as being a moat more than a bridge to expert development. Poorly skilled coders will not be able to understand solutions, pick whats good and shed whats bad, and have the ability to build on the provided code as necessary. They also wont have the ability to use AI to train themselves effectively. Mid level coders will fill in the bell curve through their own prompt ability and intuitions. High level coders will be the ones who benefit the most by being able to adopt and adapt code suggestions and have the best ability to utilize ai, thus widening the gap between low < mid < high
People advertise "vibe coding" apps but they are rudimentary and unsecure currently, and similar to AI driving there are massive gains in the 90% solution but getting a 100% solution or even a 98% solution is incredibly taxing
so i have occasionally in the past tried streamlining some of the more complex analytics i do with ai because it can take hours to gather the data, determine how to put it all together into a sim and then 10k it
however, since it gave so many obviously incorrect answers with such high frequency, i soon abandoned it because i found myself spending more time fact checking the results than if i just did it myself from scratch
but yesterday i was in a sportsbook, found an offering that looked promising but required a laptop to sort out the actual ev of and found myself screwed
so i shipped the numbers to a buddy i collab with frequently but he was unresponsive so figured he was busy and so said f it, i know this well enough that if gpt is wrong i should be able to figure it out and this was something where i knew i could easily have it go step by step showing its work so it'd be very easy for me to follow to determine if it did it correctly
so i gave it the rather complex set of data and lo and behold it pumped out a genuine answer so i went ahead and max bet winnipeg -1.5 only to have my buddy respond that yes that was good value just as i was firing away on it thus double confirming that it hadn't ffed it up
early gpt was a bust but i think the current one will be fairly useful, especially for those in a pinch moments where i don't have a laptop available
Imagine AI reporting on the rise of Hitler. AI is not observant and it can't interpret. It can only draw on on previously published stuff.
Le sigh.
Trump administration is cutting/slashing diplomats and one of the replacements will be AI. AI is not exactly what I would rely on for foreign policy.
Robots ran alongside humans at the Yizhuang half marathon in Beijing on Saturday.
Twenty-one humanoid robots, designed by Chinese manufacturers, raced next to thousands of runners completing the 21km (13-mile) course.
The winner was Tiangong Ultra, which crossed the line in two hours, 40 minutes and 42 seconds.
Some robots completed the race, while others struggled from the beginning. One robot fell at the starting line and lay flat for several minutes before getting up and taking off.
This race has been billed as the world's first robot half marathon.
...I suppose it just needed to re boot.
I'm pretty sure the US could have easily enlisted a bunch of robots into a marathon if they wanted to in like circa 2017-18 but I don't think they would flex in that way. I don't think that particular demonstration is going to come across as anything impressive.
Pretty weird differences in feelings about AI in different countries
altered/edited videos are one thing. the fun begin when the videos aren't altered or edited or true potrayals of what happened.
I don't understand how anyone could answer a survey about "AI". Anything that's remotely related to electronics is now referred to as AI. We still don't have any idea if LLMs are the right tool to achieve AGI.
Pretty weird differences in feelings about AI in different countries https://x.com/kyleichan/status/192232322...
Makes a lot of sense. Developed countries see it as a job destroyer and developing countries see it as a great equalizer
The truth, per usual, is somewhere in the middle
