NBA 2025-26 Season Thread: THE NY KNICKS ARE CHAMPIONS! BING BONG!

I definitely would not take GS -200.

You know how it's time for the NBA Playoffs? (Play-In still qualifies as Playoffs, dont address me with nittery)

and that is a joke btw.

Answer:

Kinda shocking. I feel the same way about the bookies favouring Denver over Clippers

Vig free lines had gsw at 72% over memphis and 64% over Houston which comes out to 46%.

I think in a road series @Lakers the market would put them somewhere between 40-45%

I think the win / lose outcomes for GS after the Clippers games were close, which brings the extra days off for an old team into focus as a tiebreaker?

This isn't just a GS Sunday outcome thing to me but I'd almost always rather get the weaker opponents first in the modern NBA

you know why? **** happens....maybe fat luka turns an ankle, maybe lebron pulls something since he's 57 years old, maybe minnesota upsets them, maybe so and so gets hurt, etc

injury rates in the nba playoffs way up, variance/parity is greater now....just better to take care of biz and see what happens

Clippers are either a PK or slight favs most sites now

Sounds about right.

Denver in 5 wouldn’t shock me. I get why the Clippers are getting all this love, but Jokic can just end all that noise very quickly and ruthlessly. You’re 3 - 0 down before you know what happened or why.

Warriors being comfortable favourite must be that casuals like betting them because it's not on actual chances.

Warriors got beaten 2 times by Houston in the only 2 "big" games this year (NAB cup and a week ago). Both games the final margin flattered the Warriors.

Experience is obviously important, but it's close to a coin flip to me.

Danny and Nate were split on Dunc’d - Danny had Warriors in 6 and Nate Rockets in less than 7. It’s truly a series you can argue either way imo:

- Houston have an incredible athletic advantage and can stick Thompson on Curry with plenty of bothersome depth to keep throwing at him as needed;
- ~2 weeks ago Houston made Warriors look old and slow;
- Butler could struggle against a team this big and aggressive defending the rim;
- The Warriors can’t small ball here and will have to try Post and see if he can stay on the floor;
- If the series goes long and time off between later games truncates all the age and wear and tear starts to work against the older team;

Conversely:

- when you look at net ratings for probable starting 5s Houston see little or no bump (+4.4 to +4.8) whereas the Warriors get a nice jump (+3.3 to +8.8). This is somewhat noisy due to Butler addition in silly part of the season, etc but still;
- Warriors defense is legit good, and Houston don’t have consistent spacing or shooting. Houston will need to lean heavily on transition offense and offensive rebounding to score;
- Warriors have the best and probably second best player in the series;
- Warriors are just the smarter team, who can figure things out quickly and adjust to what they are getting;

I think it’s a fascinating first two games in Houston, but my sense is that this is 5 games either way - I just don’t know which. That may sound weird, but it feels to me like one of these teams will find a structural advantage over the other that can’t be contained. Either Houston just prove too big and athletic or the Warriors prove too smart with Steph / Jimmy just getting too many buckets.

Exciting stuff imo.

There’s some contradiction between saying ‘just take care of business by getting the easier game’ if you have to lose an effective play in game to get it. It’s all good now that they survived Memphis, but that game came down to a few possession in the 4th. Plus it was an extra game on ~48 hours rest to pick up an injury, etc.

It has worked out for the Warriors pretty well probably, but saying it was a “good” loss to the Clippers is 4d chess imo.

1st Round:
Thunder 4-0 doesnt matter vs who
Cavs 4-0 doesnt matter vs who
Celtics 4-1 vs Orlando
Rockets 4-2 vs Warriors
Knicks 4-3 vs Pistons
Lakers 4-2 vs Twolves
Bucks 4-2 vs Pacers (Bucks are better w/o Dame)
Nuggets 4-3 vs Clippers

2nd Round:
Thunder 4-2 vs Nuggets
Cavs 4-1 vs Bucks
Lakers 4-2 vs Rockets
Celtics 4-2 vs Knicks

Conference Finals:
Celtics 4-2 vs Cavs
East Conference Finals MVP: Tatum
Lakers 4-3 vs Thunder
West Conference Finals MVP: LeBron

Finals:
Lakers 4-3 vs Celtics
Finals MVP: Luka

1st Round:
Whatever

2nd Round:
Whatever

Conference Finals:
Whatever

Finals:
100% not the Lakers

Dubs fan here reporting for the actual playoffs

West
Thunder 4-1 who cares
Lakers 4-2 vs Twolves
Rockets 4-3 vs Warriors
Nuggets 3-4 vs Clippers

East
Knicks 4-3 vs Pistons
Cavs 4-1 who cares
Celtics 4-0 vs Orlando
Bucks 3-4 vs Pacers

Denver with a healthy Murray and Gordon can beat anybody. Last year they wore out because they had no bench and play such a condensed lineup. They are one guy like a Bruce Brown or a KCP short this year too go far in the playoffs. If somehow Payton Watson emerges or Westbrook plays out of his mind they could make a run.

This looks about right. I can't imagine how sickening seeing Luca win a championship and finals MVP will be for Mavs fans.

West:

Thunder 4-0 vs who cares
Dubs 4-2 vs Rockets
Lakers 4-3 vs Wolves
Clippers 4-2 vs Nuggets

Clippers 4-3 vs Thunder
Dubs 4-3 vs Lakers

Dubs 4-3 vs Clippers

East:

Lol Celtics win

Finals: Dubs in 7 please god

I'm assuming the ratings were so good in the Lakers vs Warriors second round, they replayed it in the WCF.

LOLOL

On one hand I want to correct myself that I mean clippers in the WCF

On the other hand I won’t completely out of hand rule out Bronze ejecting the clippers from the WCF and replacing them with the lakers for reasons

Ergo, yes. The ratings were indeed that good in my original scenario

NBA definitely wants Warriors/Lakers second round for obvious reasons, and that it guarantees one of them in the WCF.

Thunder
Warriors
Clippers
Lakers

Cavs
Celtics
Knicks
Pacers