2024 Fantasy Football Thread

ETR rankings, if followed blindly would force some pretty big stands in R1 and 2…

My gut is to mostly follow ADP but is there any reason to take a big stand?

I asked Leone in the discord and he said “somewhere in the middle”, so maybe take cd, jj over ARSB but pull ARSB over btj, Nabers. But if you mix Strat that means you end up with like 4% on those guys that I still want to have. Unless ARSB just rises over them in ADP which is possible bc ETR has a big influence on the market

FWIW this is a huge deviation from their Pre draft ranks

Seems like a mostly meaningless group of guys, but interesting to see. I think 2023 Hopkins and 2023/24 Zeke were probably the only ones I was still drafting.

Right now, I'm still drafting Keenan, JK, and Chubb. They all certainly have low floors, but so does everyone else in their current range. And once any of them sign, they will rise.

I think this is where you have to trust your own analysis. If you have a solid reason for wanting to fade someone, like CMC's injury history, then it's completely fair. But I think the top few rounds are super strong and could see any of these guys being the ones you need during the regular season and/or playoffs. So I'm mostly an even exposure guy for the early rounds and follow ADP. I'll play heavier and lighter in some areas. Like I want to be heavy on Brock and light on Henry, but that'll probably work out to 12-16% Brock and 4-6% Henry.

If you use these rankings 100% of the time, you're probably also never getting Jeanty and I wouldn't want to be 0% Jeanty haha.

Currently, I'm using Hayden's rankings. And while Hayden is heavily involved in the best ball product, he ranks and analyzes more from a best player/redraft standpoint than a tied to ADP best ball standpoint, so he'll have some pretty huge discrepancies from the market. I certainly don't always follow the rankings, as I'm more worried about combos and stacking, but I like to get that perspective from someone who isn't tying to ADP.

Hurts, Dak

Kaleb, Pacheco, Javonte, Guerendo, Allgeier, Marks

Lamb, AJB, Devonta, Worthy, Aiyuk, Ayo, Slayton, NWI, MWill

Kelce, Ferguson, Muth

Lmao at this post.

I need more CMC but I cannot for the life of me land a pick at the end of the first, just like pre-draft.

15 drafts so far and 13 are 1.07 or higher. One 1.09 and one 1.12, where CMC went 1.10.

I’m not a flip the board kind of drafter, especially in the first, as I think you’re giving up too much value for uniqueness. But CMC is a prime candidate I might just do it a small percentage.

Well if I'm 1.7 or 1.8, then I'm always taking Jeanty, because I'm not going to reach for CMC. If I'm picking 1.11 or 1.12, and they're both on the board, then I'm still probably taking Jeanty because he's the better value.

The only players I'm pulling up in the 1st are Lamb from 1.1-1.3 or Nico/BTJ from 1.7-1.9

But it all depends on my exposures. I'm trying not to go over 15% on anyone in the first two rounds.

I’ll probably do some CMC 1.02-1.06. I’ll probably do a few Jeantys too. I’ll always take Chase at 1.01 because I almost never see Chase not go 1.01.

Kinda fun one

Kyler, Ward, Geno

Hampton, Conner, Judkins, Tracy, Shipley

JJ, Tee, Ridley, Shaheed, Bech, K Williams, Tolbert, M Wilson

McBride, Chig

Naked fields and Dak fell 20 picks past ADP so snagged him. Maybe too much qb capital

Purdy, Fields, Dak

Achane, Kyren, Benson, Dowdle, Giddens, Hill

Puka, Hunter, Addison, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Tolbert, Slayton

Jonnu, Engram

Really happy with this one
Ar probably not necessary though

Goff, Tlaw, AR

Henderson, Jones, Tracy, Allgeier, Shipley, Hunt

ARSB, Btjr, Evans, Hunter, Shaheed, Doubs, AD Mitchell

Laporta, Njoku

I like it.

The market acts like Dak retired lol. Probably not great to snag without CD, but I don’t blame you.

I’d pass on AR for another RB. Griddy also loves AD, so probably not a great sign. Hahah

Another 1.02. At least Chase fell.

Hurts, Maye

JT, Brown, Tracy, Davis, Tank, Brashard

Chase, DeVonta, Pearsall, Diggs, Egbuka, Coleman, QJ

Goedert, Taylor, Conklin

I decided Hurts/DeVonta stack was greater than Burrow with Chase/Brown. I don’t think 4/5 Hurts/DeVonta will exist all summer.

Tank and QJ 20+ past ADP.

Another 1.02. I took CMC this time.

Purdy, Goff, Maye

CMC, Pacheco, Benson, Blue, Ekeler, Estime

Higgins, Jamo, Flowers, Pearsall, Diggs, Coker, Slayton

McBride, Henry

These rooms are too sharp. Every time I queue up a player past my draft spot, they get taken before. 1.02 CMC was fitting.

I like that I ran back the 6/7 Pearsall/Diggs combo with something completely different.

I also went mid round QB heavy with Goff falling 12 spots.

What if the olds have one last stand? From the 1.04.

Brock, Tua, Milroe

CMC, Cook, Walker, BRob, Dobbins

Reek, Adams, Diggs, Mims, Williams, Doubs, Keenan, Wilson

Kittle, Kincaid

I like it. Although, is 20 spots past ADP really enough to take QJ without Herbert lol

Having a hard time readjusting to 18rds. Definitely needed 6rb here and 2qb

Baker, Purdy, Stafford

Kyren, Henderson, Tuten, Allgeier, Giddens

Puka, Evans, Olave, Aiyuk, Pittman, McMillan, Atwell, Horton

Bowers, Otton

Haha I’m actually still pretty into QJ, especially at that price. It could be a leak, but I think he still has solid spike week upside and could still run a lot of routes.

I think 3 QBs is probably fine and would have probably aimed for 6 RBs/7WRs.

I was going to draft Stroud in the 10th to go with Nico, but this guy pulled him up naked ahead of ADP. So the obvious play was to snipe him on Higgins, and then watch him almost time out because he has no idea what to do now.

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V happy with this one

Maye, JJM, Ward

Brown, Walker, Tracy, Allgeier, Braelon, Hunt

JJ, Ladd, Worthy, Ridley, Diggs, Pop, Ayomanor

Kelce, Njoku

Other than Walker and no Felton, pretty sexy lol

I looked up the worst 16 teams last season by points allowed, and wanted to see which ones I thought improved their D in FA and the draft.

I defined improvements in FA by signing at least 2 players younger than 30 that had high draft capital (first 3 rounds).

I defined improvements in the draft by the first 2 of 3 picks AND > 50% of their total picks being on defense.

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Cincy draft fits the criteria but you have them listed as no, am I misunderstanding

Nvm they had exactly 50% as defense

I think I’m going to do 10 eliminators this year just bc the format is fun