Bitcoins - digital currency
I would ask yourself if you feel safe having your money untouched on Nexo for 7 years and with the added variable that Nexo coin doesn't go to garbage during that time. Then make a decision based on your trust level with that company.
You can get a little over 10% annually (on average) investing in an S&P 500 index fund. Sure there is variance, but you can smooth it by dollar cost averaging in. And if you happen to have some cash to buy whenever there is a major dip like we just had, all the better. You can hold it in a tax advantaged retirement account too. If you're holding 7 years you're very unlikely to lose money, and will very likely make a good return.
Or you can buy a 7 year U.S treasury with a yield of about 4.3%.
When considering the EV of holding an interest bearing stable coin, it should be compared to the EV of doing one of the above, not to the EV of holding cash. So you need way more than a 50% chance to either double your money or lose it all after 7 years to make up for the opportunity cost of not making a traditional investment.
I'll never forget the day I was shown that 8-10% YOY S&P 500 gains, combined with 8-10% YOY (real) inflation, creates a flat line from canceling each other out. All 'gains' are immediately gobbled up by inflation(see theft). It's all a scam.
I'll never forget the day I was shown that 8-10% YOY S&P 500 gains, combined with 8-10% YOY (real) inflation, creates a flat line from canceling each other out. All 'gains' are immediately gobbled up by inflation(see theft). It's all a scam.
All true, but I'm comparing traditional investments to what was under discussion: getting 10% interest for holding a stablecoin. So no real crypto upside exposure in that scenario, and plenty of downside risk. And inflation having the same effect either way, so that cancels. Personally, my small IRA is 100% in IBIT.
I'll never forget the day I was shown that 8-10% YOY S&P 500 gains, combined with 8-10% YOY (real) inflation, creates a flat line from canceling each other out. All 'gains' are immediately gobbled up by inflation(see theft). It's all a scam.
I have wondered in the past if s&p returns over time basically mirrored the amount of money printing going on. It can't be completely true of course but there must be a close correlation. I mean look at the bounce back from covid lows when they turned it on.
It appears not really though? I took the 30 year period running up to 1971 and it still comes out as 12.4% annualised (dividends reinvested)
Of course I am probably missing something.
I'll never forget the day I was shown that 8-10% YOY S&P 500 gains, combined with 8-10% YOY (real) inflation, creates a flat line from canceling each other out. All 'gains' are immediately gobbled up by inflation(see theft). It's all a scam.
I will never forget the day I learned 3-3=0, 8-8=0 and ten minus ten also equals ZERO!
Yes, inflation destroys purchasing power and can eat up returns from any investments.
I have wondered in the past if s&p returns over time basically mirrored the amount of money printing going on.
No.
No? I mean, both are designed to go up and to the right, but the S&P and M2 are pretty closely correlated, much like BTC and M2 are also pretty closely correlated.
Inflation is going to drive up nominal earnings and nominal asset values for these companies, so there will definitely be a correlation with nominal stock prices. I don't buy that real returns are literally zero. Beating inflation plus a few percent is a reasonable goal for traditional investments. The data from johnnyBuz post contains a period of high inflation and mediocre stock market performance. The time frame seems pretty cherry-picked, as 1982 was a 70 year low in inflation adjusted terms. Also dividend reinvestment will boost returns and I'm not sure if that was considered.
I'll never forget the day I was shown that 8-10% YOY S&P 500 gains, combined with 8-10% YOY (real) inflation, creates a flat line from canceling each other out. All 'gains' are immediately gobbled up by inflation(see theft). It's all a scam.
Just because money supply goes up at [insert number here, 8-14%] doesn't mean prices do. It's a common myth that bitcoin cranks/gold bugs love, but it's clearly wrong. The CPI isn't a fraud. And no, don't link me shadowstats.
I'm just saying its all mostly a wash because of the money printing, which is crazy when you think about it on a grand scale.
Just because money supply goes up at [insert number here, 8-14%] doesn't mean prices do. It's a common myth that bitcoin cranks/gold bugs love, but it's clearly wrong. The CPI isn't a fraud. And no, don't link me shadowstats.
Prices of what ?
If money supply goes up something will go up, it isn’t a myth…
It’s just depends who gets the money first .
Just because money supply goes up at [insert number here, 8-14%] doesn't mean prices do. It's a common myth that bitcoin cranks/gold bugs love, but it's clearly wrong. The CPI isn't a fraud. And no, don't link me shadowstats.
Did you sleep through the asset price everything bubble of the 2010’s?
Prices of what ?
If money supply goes up something will go up, it isn’t a myth…
It’s just depends who gets the money first .
Consumer prices.
Yes I acknowledge that money goes somewhere, and it tends to go into assets. But people say this money printing causes consumer prices to go up equally and that isn't true, consumer prices clearly go up less than the money supply.
My point is, if you held the S&P over the last x years where it returned ~10-12% annually on average, you are richer now in real terms than you were when you bought (i.e investing is worth it, and not just to keep up with inflation, you get ahead). If you put 100k in the S&P 10 years ago you now have ~$300k, if people think consumer prices have gone up 3x in those 10 years and you aren't richer in real terms you honestly have no idea.
The 2010s specifically prove my point btw, after 2008 lots of economists (especially Austrians) were freaking out about all the printing, and the 2010s had remarkably low consumer price inflation despite all the QE.
QE (2010’s) results in asset price inflation.
Direct stimulus (post-Covid global response) results in CPI inflation.
You can’t just exclude one half of the equation and say money printing doesn’t impact people in their life. More money chasing the same number of assets, goods and services results in inflation. It’s intuitive and common sense.
The moral of the story = stack sats.
I'm just saying its all mostly a wash because of the money printing, which is crazy when you think about it on a grand scale.
Are you suggesting that stock market returns are close to the rate of inflation over a reasonable time frame? If so, would you be interested in a wager on what will have a higher avg return/rate?
Consumer prices. Yes I acknowledge that money goes somewhere, and it tends to go into assets. But people say this money printing causes consumer prices to go up equally and that isn't true, consumer prices clearly go up less than the money supply.My point is, if you held the S&P over the last x years where it returned ~10-12% annually on average, you are richer now in real term
Who beside ignorants ?
Read Again read my post and think about it ….
Money printing increases prices depending who gets the money ….
Yes when Wall Street gets the money they spend it in the markets and when regular people gets the money they spend it on stuffs .
When the fed do QE who gets the money ?
When the government send checks to people who gets the money they spend?
Both is money printing increasing prices , hope that helps .
Sorry guys, I think that BTC is too expensive here, who is going to pay $100k for something of no real value? Everyone should probably sell before it is too late...
S&P 500 beats inflation. Not saying inflation doesn't suck, but S&P 500 still beats it in the long run.
