Israel / Iran thread
Seems like this conflict is not going to end anytime soon and is worthy of its own thread.
This ceasefire could actually work. I mean its probably more likely to fail but neither Iran or Israel want to actually risk their own against each other. Iran doesnt give a **** about their proxies well being or the safety of the Palestinians in any humane sense and Israel sure as hell doesnt care either.
Its juat a bunch of old folks in power flexing their might who will go back in hiding once the fun gets a little too close for comfort.
**** em both.
The problems in the bond market are serious and do have to be addressed at some point. In order to address them, cuts to federal spending have to be made, so to do this while it is still very abstract in the minds of most people is a sign of long-term thinking that is the opposite of what is being displayed in the current situation.
Trump has made the problems in the bond market worse and his preferred policy of tax cuts and no any spending cuts will send yields higher. The only reason they haven't sky rocketed is because he chickened out on tariffs and it looks really hard for republicans to pass any bill like Trump wants.
Trump sending out a ‘both teams played hard’ tweet when 300 Iranian civilians were killed is a move for sure
But even a successful ceasefire isnt some axxomplishment. Its just a pause. The hate doesnt go away obv. It just offers a way to change the strategy, and who takes the risk which the lol part of these two shitstains.
Iran’s Axis of Resistance has been severely weakened. Basically 101 on how to **** your own pants.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounde...
The IDF has continued to target Iranian internal security and social control institutions in Tehran.
The IDF targeted the Basij headquarters in Tehran.[12] The Basij is a paramilitary organization that recruits and organizes regime loyalists and uses them to produce and disseminate propaganda, suppress internal dissent, and conduct civil defense operations.
The IDF also struck Evin Prison, which is Iran’s primary facility for holding regime dissidents.[15] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that the IDF struck the prison’s entrances to facilitate the escape of regime dissidents. An open-source watcher reported that the IDF targeted the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters, a state-controlled media outlet that the regime uses to disseminate propaganda.[18]
The IDF targeted the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Forces Sarallah Operational Base and other IRGC headquarters in Tehran.[22] The Sarallah Operational Base is responsible for security in Tehran The headquarters has historically played a significant role in suppressing internal dissent.[24] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that the IDF estimates that it killed many IRGC personnel in its recent strikes on IRGC facilities, given that the IDF did not issue evacuation warnings ahead of the strikes.
I don't know if Israel would create a vacuum in Iran without something to fill it with.
But even a successful ceasefire isnt some axxomplishment. Its just a pause. The hate doesnt go away obv. It just offers a way to change the strategy, and who takes the risk which the lol part of these two shitstains.
Problem is for Iran is that it is better that they just play ball with Trump because he is totally unpredictable. It is an enormous advantage that you just don't want to expect next from him and at this stage after the the carnage of the last 12 days they will just want to lick their wounds and re-build (hopefully not their nuclear program though).
But even a successful ceasefire isnt some axxomplishment. Its just a pause. The hate doesnt go away obv. It just offers a way to change the strategy, and who takes the risk which the lol part of these two shitstains.
You might be over-estimating how organic the "hate" is, and how easy it would be to shift focus if it was deemed expedient.
A lot of the hate is due to intentional propaganda spoon fed to the people for political purposes. And it can be redirected. Israel fought major wars with Egypt and Jordan, and there was a lot of hate. But although they aren't exactly bossom bodies, no one is talking about how much Egyptians and Jordanians hate Israelis after 50 years of peace.
The Iranian people themselves never had much hate for Israel or the US, or a least they haven't for a long time. IRGC propaganda has mostly been used to control Arab paramilitaries. And it was part of a larger campaign to project IRGC power and influence. And maintaining the paramilitaries and propaganda networks is extremely expensive.
It is very possible that in the coming decades new Iranian leadership decides to forgo projecting power into the Arab world, and in that case it is very likely the hate dissipates a lot without it being constantly fed.
To make IRGC reconsider, you need to make it politically easy for them to back down and economically expensive to continue funding terrorist cells.
Bombing them achieves neither, at least not at the scale Israel and the US are willing to do.
Bombing them still could be the right move if you believe there is no way to make Iran back down and/or it’s the only way to halt Iranian refinement of uranium.
So Iran launches a missile. Just getting one last one in before the ceasefire starts?
Iran TV read out the ceasefire on air. then Iran launched some missiles. then Trump posted this.
and Israel ofc is still bombing but they are special people so they dont need to follow any rules.
