Israel / Iran thread
Seems like this conflict is not going to end anytime soon and is worthy of its own thread.
Of course waning support from the US is concerning and an issue for Israel but the notion that they aren’t going to form any other relationships or move towards a more self sufficient policy is just not rooted in much beyond wishful thinking from Pompeous.
The mistake i think a lot of netanuahu supporters are making is thinking that without a politcal process their opponents wont also adjust. Israel will always be small country*. It needs solid allies and I think you are underestimating just how much damage has been done to general sentiment and in kicking open the door to targeted killing/civilian casualties. The new relationships might only be friends while you're on top - who has your back when it matters.
[I also think people are stuck on considering old threats. The new tech coming is going to be much harder to defend from even with a big advantage because it will be increasingly based on mass small distributed devices like drones rather than bigger centralised targets. MWDs (mass weapons of destuction) will join WMDs as a different sort of existential threat]
* I make a similar point to this about the UK who need to be part of the EU or will remain dependent on the usa. The situation and risks for israel are significantly different but self-sufficiency is a very risky option for any but the biggest groups.
I think that is correct. The problem is that only Israel gets held to the standards it does. Houthis killed way more people yet get portrayed as freedom fighters.
The way Israel owned Iran's sky, successful commando raids on the nuclear sites is conceivable. But what would they be walking into? A lot of exposure. Huge risk. But without the B52's I'm guessing they would have.
Maybe. I gather that boots on the ground is playing more into Iran's strength. Not sure when we have sites that usa bombers are needed to destroy (without certainty) that they will be reachable by commandoes with any useful likelyhood of success.
On the intelligence front, Irans and others have been deeply embrassed by israel but they will adjust and even israel gets it badly wrong sometimes
I think that is correct. The problem is that only Israel gets held to the standards it does. Houthis killed way more people yet get portrayed as freedom fighters.
Yep the idea is that we hold ourselves and our allies to the standards we believe in. Quite right too. We seek to defeat our enemies but the solution to extemism/terrorism is politcal.
Our failure to hold ourselves to the values we believe in is a major part of the polical struggle. I'd still like to blair among others on trial.
Maybe. I gather that boots on the ground is playing more into Iran's strength. Not sure when we have sites that usa bombers are needed to destroy (without certainty) that they will be reachable by commandoes with any useful likelyhood of success.On the intelligence front, Irans and others have been deeply embrassed by israel but they will adjust and even israel gets it badly wr
Hopefully for everyone the adjustment is just to decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze and to leave Israel alone. Other than ideological conviction, there is no real reason for the IRGC to be constantly threatening and attacking Israel (mostly through Arab paramilitary proxies). Except for Shia Iraq, most of the Arab world has shown they just aren't interested in what the IRGC is selling.
Hopefully for everyone the adjustment is just to decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze and to leave Israel alone. Other than ideological conviction, there is no real reason for the IRGC to be constantly threatening and attacking Israel (mostly through Arab paramilitary proxies). Except for Shia Iraq, most of the Arab world has shown they just aren't interested in what the
Hopefully it will all be fantastic but netanyahu has cemented a very real concern about how israel might act.
The bar on actions that kill cviliians, destroy areas, assassinate people etc has been driven way too low for trust. Somehow that has to be reversed.
Hopefully it will all be fantastic but netanyahu has cemented a very real concern about how israel might act.
The bar on actions that kill cviliians, destroy areas, assassinate people etc has been driven way too low for trust. Somehow that has to be reversed.
LOL.
You know who isn't worried about how Israel might act? The 200 nations in the world that don't chant "Death to Israel" and constantly attack them. IRGC leaders can wake up tomorrow, announce they are done antagonizing and attacking Israel, and it would be completely over the second they did that.
Blaming Netanyahu for the relationship with the IRGC is insane. The IRGC is completely at fault. 110%.
Right after the revolution, while Khomenei was chanting "Death to Israel," Israel actually secretly supported Iran in the Iran-Iraq war, trying to keep the door open for the IRGC to shift their stance. But instead they have doubled and tripled down and here we are.
The USAÂ’s contribution to Israel only constitutes 10% of their defense budget and they have been aware of the possibility of waning US support for some time. Netanyahu himself has expressed the need to wean off American support. Maybe youÂ’re high off whatever propaganda youÂ’ve been huffing but Israel isnÂ’t going to disappear because gen Z Americans stop liking it.ItÂ’s ha
That 10% stat is not for wartime, so your point is missing the mark. If we look at how this war has actually played out, American bombs made for American jets have been by far the weapon of choice. You say that Netanyahu is concerned, but you fail to come up with an idea for what the Israelis might do as an alternative.
My argument is based on polling and demographic trends. Your argument is "Netanyahu is working on it."
How is your argument more coherent?
LOL.You know who isn't worried about how Israel might act? The 200 nations in the world that don't chant "Death to Israel" and constantly attack them. IRGC leaders can wake up tomorrow, announce they are done antagonizing and attacking Israel, and it would be completely over the second they did that.Blaming Netanyahu for the relationship with the IRGC is insane. The IRGC is
Yeah and the people living anywhere near anyone who is, or might be considered, a threat. Or anyone who cares about anyone who lives near them.
They now have real reason to be concerned about how israel might act.
Nothing funny about it
Apparently the successful mission only put Iran back a few months in nuke development, so yeah, this is not close to the end.
Apparently you all were in a rush to judgment. I hate to break your heart but this attack in fact severely damaged the Iranian Nuke program. Another win for the Don.
Apparently you all were in a rush to judgment. I hate to break your heart but this attack in fact severely damaged the Iranian Nuke program. Another win for the Don.
Rush to judgement by reiterating what the Pentagon said? Yeah, sure, buddy.
And in several weeks when "new" information is "obtained" about them developing nukes appears and we have to strike them again, you'll be buying that bullshit, too.
Israel failed at all of its objectives in this war. it was an embarrassment. on the plus side for them, they can get back to doing what they do best which is slaughtering starving concentration camp victims.
If on 10/8/2023 you told Netanyahu that in the span of the next 1.5 years he would overthrow Assad (with a potential friendly govt taking over), tremendously degrade Hezbollah and Hamas, operate in Gaza and the West Bank with impunity while the rest of the world just watched, destroy IRGC air defense and severely degrade their offensive war capabilities, destroy or damage most Iranian nuclear facilities, and shift the Overton window on the US directly engaging the IRGC militarily; he would call it a win.
This cope is embarrassing, even for you.
If you want to make a Pompous argument Israel won the battle but lost the war because of shift of public opinion in West, that is fine. But none of us are completely clairvoyant and know how the future will unfold. And the nice thing abut Netanyahu being blamed for everything is he is 75 and will be out of politics soon, so the rest of the world can easily just blame him and turn the page if the situation allows for it. In the same way if/when the IRGC falls whatever takes their place can be easily integrated with the rest of the world if they choose to.
its definitely springtime for Israel
Israel failed at all of its objectives in this war. it was an embarrassment. on the plus side for them, they can get back to doing what they do best which is slaughtering starving concentration camp victims.
Okay vic
They're doing better than Eyeran anyway.
