2024 Fantasy Football Thread

123 and 165 is where they have been going lmao. I need to hop into the SF streets.

SF
This has to be one of, if not my first Russ share. He fell 40 past ADP (unfortunately I got sniped on all his stacks)

JJM, Tlaw, Russ, Milroe

Breece, Cook, Monty, Mason, Tuten, Benson, Neal

JJ, CD, Hunter, Kirk, Dyami, MVS

Hock, Ertz, Sanders

Russ fits great in that QB room.

SF

Purdy, Penix, Russ

Cook, Chuba, Swift, Najee, Guerendo, Lloyd, Moss

Chase, London, Jennings, Mooney, Kirk, Palmer, Tutu

Njoku, Otton, Theo

SF

Kyler, Maye, Shough (40 picks past ADP)

Bijan, Bucky, Pacheco, Ekeler, Shipley, Corum, Brooks

MHJ, Evans, Worthy, Diggs, Shaheed, ADM, Malik

Kelce, Henry, Gesicki

I feel like Shough is a huge steal at ADP, 40 past is wild

yeah and Shaheed was right there at the turn. How could I say no lol

Shough has been too cheap this whole time. He’s my 3rd highest drafted SF QB at 14%.

40 picks past is nuts.

I saw him picked at 71 the other day in a QB hungry room. Darnold went at 49, Rodgers at 54, and Dimes at 65.

DK added 4 more of the $8 3-entry contests. I might actually max these. $500 for making the finals, so insta-profit if you make it there.

https://x.com/smolads/status/19397367721...

This is V bullish for Hill/Waddle

I think these contests are deceptively bad because of the total field size. 2/12, 2/12, and 1/12 of is about the same advancement level as the Puppys on UD, with nowhere near the finals upside.

This contest has a rate of .2315 versus the Puppy at .1667. The smaller level contests on UD like Hound Dog, Pug, Poodle, etc. all have better advancement structures with way more money up top.

Yeah, I think the Jonnu move was mostly about wanting to get back to the offense from 2022 and 2023 and remove the bs they were doing last year. I posted it in the NFL thread, but Jonnu's best trait is YAC. The Phins have 3 players better at YAC than Jonnu. If the offense looks like it did last year, everyone is losing their jobs.

I just drafted this mega stacked banger. Chiefs/Broncos shootout w17?

Mahomes, Nix, Penix, Willis

Cook, Pacheco, Tracy, JK, Justice, Lloyd, Corum

London, Worthy, Sutton, Mooney, Hollywood, Mims

Kelce, Pitts, Higbee

My only regret is taking Tracy instead of Engram, but I didn't think about it until it was too late.

My biggest reach was Worthy at 62. I'm still conflicted on if that reach is good or not, especially since there will be Mahomes teams who have him at 83. But also probably not many teams that have both Worthy/Sutton at 83/86 while also having Mahomes/Nix. And Mahomes without one of Rice/Worthy doesn't make me feel as good about winning w17.

With that said, my strategy is if I get Rice at 59, I'm happy to push Worthy. If not, I'm taking Worthy.

And from a projection standpoint, is it really that bad? The ADP difference is larger in SF, and I do think the argument of cheaper Worthy on other Mahomes teams is valid. But there really isn't a large pick difference between the WRs in that range of the draft.

In 1QB, Worthy goes ahead of DK and Jamo. In SF, he goes behind. And he's right behind others in 1QB like Tet, DJM, Evans, etc. Evans goes at 64, which is a 15 pick gap with Worthy. But the gap is only 7 in 1QB (35 vs 42).

Yeah, my opinion is if I'm going to use my run good to make the finals, I want to chase the big prize pools.

And I realized it's actually 2/12, 2/12, 1/10, which isn't much better but slightly improves the finals odds. That puts expectation at .2778 instead of .2315.

I wish DK would do something like 3/12, 1/5, 1/4 with a finals size more like 20-50. I think that's the best medium for smaller contests.

Like The Greyhound on UD. 2/12, 1/5, 1/4, and a 53 seat final.

I like it. I also did a KC/DEN stack a little while ago.

Spoiler

Show

Purdy, Tua, Dart

CMC, Harvey, Mason, Blue, Wright, Shipley

Higgins, Reek, DeVonta, Waddle, Pearsall, Burden, McMillan, Samuel

Njoku, Juwan, Ferguson

Has there ever been any publicity/examples of someone who would’ve gotten a 4+ figure tournament payout but had insanely bad pod luck?

Example: player has best score of his 12-team draft in weeks 1-14 so advances to week 15, then in week 15 has a score that’s top 5% of the remaining field but his pod has two other players who have a top 2% week 15 score, and since each pod advances only 2/12, player could conceivably crush it in weeks 16-17 but can’t because bad week 15 pod luck, as opposed to a bad week 15 score.

It’s unlikely, but given the randomness and large number of entrants it’s bound to have happened to someone already.

I’m surprised this isn’t talked about more (or maybe it is and I’m not onto it?), or everyone’s cool with the variance?

People complain about pod luck on social media every season haha. I think it’s a feature, especially for volume drafters. It goes both ways. I much prefer this format compared to season long total points.

I don’t have any specific examples, but you’ll see someone post about winning a pod with 130 then someone post about losing a pod with 180.

No idea about percentile outcomes.

Is it worth taking Michael Mayer hoping he gets traded to the Dolphins ? Or should we wait till he’s actually traded ?

Wait

I don't think he got the memo.

DK

Caleb, Stroud, Shough

CMC, Mixon, Pollard, White, Blue, Allgeier, Mostert

MHJ, DJM, Odunze, Pearsall, Tre, Pierce, Noel, Cooks

Bowers, Kmet

Ah this is what I needed to hear, thanks. I guess I'm following the wrong people on Twitter lol (at least in week 15+)

Last DK team for the night. Got Mahomes 20 picks past ADP. Almost had Herbert 10 picks past, but he went right before me to the Najee drafter.

Mahomes, Stroud

Breece, Cook, Conner, Dowdle, Shipley, Lloyd, Brooks

Nico, Ladd, Flowers, Shakir, Tre, Hollywood, McMillan, Royals, Malik

Andrews, Goedert

This makes me want to stop drafting DK.