2025 World Series of Poker May 27th - July 16th
I have taken the sucker bet of picking 50 players to collectively beat 1.6x ROI in the Main Event. I know it's a -EV bet. I did it for the challenge and the sweat, at the price of an expensive Vegas dinner. As I have zero chance to play in the WSOP Main this year, I will instead root for my hand-picked team of crushers.
The status of my sweats as we move into the money:
Assuming nobody bubbles, I'll have 13/50 ITM (26%), which is far above the random expectation of 7.5 (15%). Small sample size, but we see the skill edge and the deep structure of the Main Event at work. 13 cashes would guarantee $260k back, though I still need to find $540k on top of that. Not sure I like my chances, but I have a pulse.
i have a confession to make. i should have admitted this long, long ago. but i was in denial. and i hurt myself and my family and my (poker) community in the process. i am no longer ashamed of this fact. i will own it, from now on. i will boast it proudly, whenever and wherever I may go:
i absolutely love will kassouf.
Seek help
Am I the only one that was more interested in watching kasuf than the negreanu or Hellmuth tables?
Sure some of his speech play is annoying and I had to fast forward at times, but he was playing exploitive and not GTO. I’d guess he was around 60-70% VPIP. It makes for much more interesting viewing IMO.
Am I the only one that was more interested in watching kasuf than the negreanu or Hellmuth tables?
Sure some of his speech play is annoying and I had to fast forward at times, but he was playing exploitive and not GTO. I’d guess he was around 60-70% VPIP. It makes for much more interesting viewing IMO.
people need to call the clock on him and call it more in general.
i would not only want to be at his table, i would want to sit directly across from him, stare at him fondly, laugh at even his bad jokes, take notes on how he plays and what he says, and ask for his autograph.
.....and yell stuff like "BOOM" when he tables bluffs.
........and make sure the massage girls make him nice and comfortable.
Assuming nobody bubbles, I'll have 13/50 ITM (26%), which is far above the random expectation of 7.5 (15%). Small sample size, but we see the skill edge and the deep structure of the Main Event at work. 13 cashes would guarantee $260k back, though I still need to find $540k on top of that. Not sure I like my chances, but I have a pulse.
As in $260,000USD?
How much are you in for, and what’s the payout structure?
Greg Merson was discovered still in, unclear if he still is.
The status of my sweats as we move into the money: Assuming nobody bubbles, I'll have 13/50 ITM (26%), which is far above the random expectation of 7.5 (15%). Small sample size, but we see the skill edge and the deep structure of the Main Event at work. 13 cashes would guarantee $260k back, though I still need to find $540k on top of that. Not sure I like my chances, but I hav
A mincash at the Main is only worth $15k, so you are only guaranteed a minimum of $195k.
I don't really like your chances with only two players over 400k in chips. Limon knows what he's talking about on this one.
Can a mod put "no spoilers" in the thread title and enforce it please?
Soon as somethings been on the stream its fair game ofc but it operates with a large delay and troll posters in the past have ruined the viewing experience using the equivalent thread for that year.
Am I the only one that was more interested in watching kasuf than the negreanu or Hellmuth tables?
Sure some of his speech play is annoying and I had to fast forward at times, but he was playing exploitive and not GTO. I’d guess he was around 60-70% VPIP. It makes for much more interesting viewing IMO.
He makes for an incredible hate watch and its interesting watching how the other players handle him as well. Hope they use his table tonight.
He's obviously a bellend but I don't get the hate from some for him being on the feature table, its some of the best viewing we have had in years.
I mean I positively rooted for Rigby and Zhang during their runs which were great watches, but its good to have a villian to hate on also.
i mean the kind of bet you made wont be determined by min cashes.... seems like your sweating this all wrong. you win when one goes top 20 or alot go top 100 not x amount min cash since a 1.5x cash is meaningless. and since this is a top heavy mtt your odds are probably much worse then you think because so few of the pool make enough to cover. I think you got hustled because you need more then that roi since you don't get any extra money when they go over the 1.65 roi or whatever it is. and most of the time you win this bet its by way over 2x roi. Unless you cross booked which is how you should have did this bet
Will we EVER have someone famous or notable win or make a deep run again?
Feels like the last 4-5 years have been BORING.
even the big personalties like Jamie Gold, Joe Hachem, Jerry Yang, Steve Dannemann, have all vanished...
i mean the kind of bet you made wont be determined by min cashes.... seems like your sweating this all wrong. you win when one goes top 20 or alot go top 100 not x amount min cash since a 1.5x cash is meaningless. and since this is a top heavy mtt your odds are probably much worse then you think because so few of the pool make enough to cover. I think you got hustled because yo
Limon has been offering this bet for years and I believe has never lost it, for the exact reasons you outline. It's basically a bet on whether one of 50 players you name makes the final 2 tables.
Will we EVER have someone famous or notable win or make a deep run again?
Feels like the last 4-5 years have been BORING.
even the big personalties like Jamie Gold, Joe Hachem, Jerry Yang, Steve Dannemann, have all vanished...
None of the players you mentioned were famous before the year they FTed the Main Event. They were made famous because poker on TV had much more a cultural footprint 20 years ago, and because of the way the TV broadcast was edited.
Niklas Astedt last year was certainly much more famous in poker circles than any of those people. And if someone like Steve Dannemann finished runner-up this year, no one would remember him a year later.
i mean the kind of bet you made wont be determined by min cashes.... seems like your sweating this all wrong. you win when one goes top 20 or alot go top 100 not x amount min cash since a 1.5x cash is meaningless. and since this is a top heavy mtt your odds are probably much worse then you think because so few of the pool make enough to cover. I think you got hustled because yo
How did I get hustled when I admitted it's a losing bet? I did it for fun. The entertainment value has already justified the money, which was about the price of a 10PM $135 WSOP satellite that will last an hour. It's been fun keeping track of my players.
The problem with the bet is that it's a binary yes/no just to 2x your cash, whereas the real value in buying someone at 1.6x is for the times when they make the final table and hit a huge multiplier on your investment. There is no way for me to win a lot of money from this bet, even if one of my players wins the whole tournament.
You are right that the bet will ultimately come down to whether or not anyone makes the final few tables. However, min cashes and smaller cashes can still be an important part of getting over the line.
On a somewhat related note, I wonder what % of players in the field find this call on the money bubble of the Main:
None of the players you mentioned were famous before the year they FTed the Main Event. They were made famous because poker on TV had much more a cultural footprint 20 years ago, and because of the way the TV broadcast was edited. Niklas Astedt last year was certainly much more famous in poker circles than any of those people. And if someone like Steve Dannemann finished runn
No, they were made famous because they are CHARACTERS and big personalities. Most of the FT players today are super quiet or not as fluent in English.
Even guys like Darvin Moon had personality.
It's not about being "famous" but having a noteworthy personality, OR being known to the public not "poker circles".
On a somewhat related note, I wonder what % of players in the field find this call on the money bubble of the Main:
Same player that came 3rd in the millionaire maker and , as was reported by Negreanu at least, turned down a deal on the wpt 1 million bonus,
What a player
Having said that the bubble player did get a 30k package this year which changes the dynamic somewhat !
No, they were made famous because they are CHARACTERS and big personalities. Most of the FT players today are super quiet or not as fluent in English.
Even guys like Darvin Moon had personality.
It's not about being "famous" but having a noteworthy personality, OR being known to the public not "poker circles".
3 of the 4 you mentioned were 1 hit wonder fish who ran super hot.
The current structure makes that a lot harder to happen and creates less fairytale stories though there should be some, but repeated fairytale runs by lesser skilled players are just so unlikely
A mincash at the Main is only worth $15k, so you are only guaranteed a minimum of $195k.
I don't really like your chances with only two players over 400k in chips. Limon knows what he's talking about on this one.
I invented this bet over a decade ago and used to win a lot. now many people like bryce yockey, dan zack, etc. offer this bet and I cant get much action. they should all pay me a commission!!! (my guess is very few people take this bet anymore because they understand the "trick" of it and people also understand now that tournament players selling at 1.6+++ are just scam artists and those ROI's were always a pipe dream). When i started offering this bet MANY MANY people were convinced the the top tournament players had 200%+ ROI's in the main. hahahahhahahahahahah
