2/5NL Navigating JJ four way and OOP
Very good 2/5 table, I have $1500 and everyone in the hand covers me.
Biggest fish (BF) at the table raises to $20 in MP
On the flop I couldn’t decide what to do, so I decided to call knowing I’m going to fold a bunch of turns, but I thought folding flop was just too weak when there’s a decent chance I’m ahead here.
Turn was very anti climatic, a seven for the 4 liner straight. VGP bet 400, BF shipped it in, I folded and VGP called with 99 to chop with 89o
Thank you. Would you be able to explain your rationale here?
VGP’s flop action indicates he thinks he is nutted OTF. So it’s either sets (fishy PF call being OOP to the rec players) or he is overplaying an overpair OOP four-way on a very connected board that smashes the rec players’ ranges.
even with the best hand on the flop, because you are OOP vs 2 players chances are good you are going to be bet out of the hand later because almost every turn + river card sucks.
Thank you. Would you be able to explain your rationale here?
VGP’s flop action indicates he thinks he is nutted OTF. So it’s either sets (fishy PF call being OOP to the rec players) or he is overplaying an overpair OOP four-way on a very connected board that smashes the rec players’ ranges.
Have you never played with fish? Saying that betting with an overpair on this board is a punt is just hilariously wrong
"VGP's" sizing on the flop is God awful though. So yeah sorry bro, he is warranted as being evaluated and criticized here.
Like why is he bombing 99 here? If it's even a bet, which I think it's close, it's a small one.
I’m pretty sure you guys haven’t played with actual fish
Interesting thread considering the overwhelming consensus was to fold flop to a 70% pot bet, with SPR over 4, when Hero had over 70% equity! I mean, I know we've seen the results and we're playing against ranges, not just an opponent's actual two cards, but the reality, however difficult it to see in real time, was that Hero was in a great spot (I say now lest it be forgotten).
Yes, let’s be results oriented and look at a sample size of 1 where it’s literally the best possible scenario
Also, villain cold calling 3bet with 99 and then betting this board huge 4 way shows he isn’t good, unlike OP’s claim.
I understand the results-oriented red flag but my point is that the overwhelming consensus was wrong, so you need to acknowledge this fact. It could be an outlier, it could be because OP misdescribed the Villains or could be something else related, perhaps, to risk-aversion and not wanting to be involved in difficult spots in multiway 3bet pots when you're OOP and 300bb deep. I'm suggesting these relatively stressful spots cause many to overly rely on conservative defaults (and I'm not sanctimoniously excluding myself from this tendency, either).
There is no way BB should check QQ against two actual IRL 2-5 fish after the preflop raising SB check—yes, he probably shouldÂ’ve 3 bet.
The fish have dozens of possible hands like 23d & K5c you donÂ’t want to give a free card to.
I just don't get all the VGP player is not a very good player takes. He does very very well in these games, they're fishy and they're deep and he makes good reads. You don't need to play GTO against fish. You can size up when you think you're ahead. I think it's totally fine to bet big here with 99 against two players who call any piece of the board while assuming that I have AK/AQ.
Flop is a fold or shove. Calling makes no sense. We hate half the deck on the turn.
I just don't get all the VGP player is not a very good player takes. He does very very well in these games, they're fishy and they're deep and he makes good reads. You don't need to play GTO against fish. You can size up when you think you're ahead. I think it's totally fine to bet big here with 99 against two players who call any piece of the board while assuming that I have A
Why would a good player assume you have AK or AQ?
It also depends on how bad the fish are. Some fish won’t call a huge bet multiway on this flop with just a pair.
If the other players are going to go crazy with every pair, you should be checking QQ+ plenty (probably always).
Also, see how you checked JJ on the flop, so clearly checking doesn’t mean you have AK or AQ….
And okay, that’s great that they’ll call with any piece. The problem is that on a board like this, even a range like that has a lot of equity against 99. Also his call preflop with 99 is horrible so obviously he’s not good.
On the flop I couldn’t decide what to do, so I decided to call knowing I’m going to fold a bunch of turns, but I thought folding flop was just too weak when there’s a decent chance I’m ahead here.
So, you called to see where you were at? What card were you hoping to see on the turn besides a jack?
If they are calling with any piece of the board, it is even more incentive to bet or raise your hand.
Also, winning in games like this does not necessarily make someone a very good player. He could be the best player at the table though. He managed to get an extra $300 out of you with a worse hand 😉
Uhh what? The fish calling makes this a more tricky spot. I'm almost positive I'm ahead of BF with my JJ here.
If you're that confident, you should raise all in on the flop and be willing to get it in vs fish's likely draw. If we just call and the turn is a blank and neither can beat your overpair on the turn, they'll just check and you're giving them a free card to beat you. That's your best case scenario, as there aren't many turn blanks.
Or he can just keep blasting on the turn with 99/TT knowing he's ahead of the fish but behind you. Either way, you're just guessing and trying to dodge turn & river cards.
Bigger preflop. Make the preflop raise closer to $200 and the fish calling range won't change much. Then you can play a lot of 2 street games since that is what JJ likes to do postflop on most runouts.
Bet flop. We don't play a range versus a fish and the good player in the BB will play face up versus your cbet.
As played, I'd actually jam flop and use the fish to leverage hand strength versus the Big Blind.
We know a few things:
1. We are very likely ahead of the fish but he will probably call our jam
2. We don't know if we are behind or ahead of the BB. Even if he has a hand like 99/TT he might bluff us off later. QQ and to a lesser extent KK is also possible. He probably doesn't have AA.
If he has like AKss we are flipping but the only real hand we are worried about is sets and those are somewhat discounted.
3. The Jam is good because it folds out QQ and that is Villain's most likely hand. Folding out 99/TT is fine too or even he can have JJ. The goal is to isolate the fish who you are ahead of.
Okay just saw results. Cool hand.
Smells like reverse hh
Bigger preflop. Make the preflop raise closer to $200 and the fish calling range won't change much. Then you can play a lot of 2 street games since that is what JJ likes to do postflop on most runouts. Bet flop. We don't play a range versus a fish and the good player in the BB will play face up versus your cbet. As played, I'd actually jam flop and use the fish to leverage hand
I don't think you play live poker enough. Yes, we have seen the results especially as Dr likes to point out.
Piling it in with JJ is not going to be good here long term in live poker in a 4 way 3bet pot on this flop. It's certainly losing money.
Sets are definitely not discounted here. "VGP" cold called a 3bet with 99 and bet a large sizing on the flop 4 ways.....I also wouldn't discount him having QQ+ sometimes and I can tell you from a lot of live experience most guys aren't folding here even "VGP".
The only things I agree with you on are a bigger 3bet pf and cbetting the flop, specifically with JJ.
And yes OP, I've played with a lot more fish than you have. That still doesn't make VGP's play PF or OTF good at all. If you ask me, you all played the hand fishy/bad.
I don't think you play live poker enough. Yes, we have seen the results especially as Dr likes to point out.
Piling it in with JJ is not going to be good here long term in live poker in a 4 way 3bet pot on this flop. It's certainly losing money.
Folding a hand with 70% equity on the flop is definitely a way to lose money (whether it be live or online poker).
Sets are definitely not discounted here. "VGP" cold called a 3bet with 99 and bet a large sizing on the flop 4 ways.....I also wouldn't discount him having QQ+ sometimes and I can tell you from a lot of live experience most guys aren't folding here even "VGP".
BB is more likely to cold-call a 3bet with 88-QQ than 55 or 66. Of the sets, you've probably got 3 combos of 88 versus 12 combos of 99-TT, for instance, maybe a little of the 55-66. I wouldn't include all the QQ and only a smidge if any of KK/AA. Vulnerable overpairs that are a dog to JJ constitute a significant portion of BB's range --- it's a key reason why folding flop is -EV.
"Obviously I know we play against ranges and don't know the specific results before taking our action, however for the purposes of the second half of this sentence I'm going to disregard that fact."
He’s not wrong at all in his analysis. The people saying fold flop are not correct given how wide the fish is.
Also seeing the hand is actually very helpful since that is data towards not folding. Live MDA is now a thing.
If “good player” can have 99-TT here a lot, then it’s true that we should continue flop. And results seem to confirm that. The problem is just that we were told it’s a good player, and playing 99 like this is mega fish.
