AKo in SB on Dry Flop
1/2. Effective stacks 250. V is a big Ukrainian. No read at all. He just sat down. Rake promo 6+3.
Limp. V OTB bets 10.
Ok. We got some value when he shows. Now the question is whether or not that's "normal" for him, and he's going to be turning low PP's into bluffs a lot, with over-bet jams when we check, or if it's a red herring move, and he's actually planning on playing tight.The only way to be sure is to watch how he plays and pay attention to showdowns. But in general, I think when someone
I think you are overanalyzing the spot. After we 3-bet pre and check flop, villain puts us on AK/AQ/AJ exactly. He has a pocket pair, is afraid of overcards and is shoving to protect his "made hand". When he shows us that 55, he is effectively saying "see, I had a pair, I was not bluffing you"
Also, I call bullshit on a lot of 1/2 players checking the 489 flop with an overpair and a <3 SPR. Population might check 88 or 99 on that flop at a high frequency, but that's about it.
I think you give V too much credit. The more likely story is that V just sat down , called a large bet, thought oh **** why did I do that, then tried to get rid of his bad hand by jamming. V could have just bet 50 to get me to fold.
I’m prob just checking here, that board smashes his flat range and you’re kinda naked with just overs. No shame in keeping the pot small till you get a read on this dude.
I think you give V too much credit. The more likely story is that V just sat down , called a large bet, thought oh **** why did I do that, then tried to get rid of his bad hand by jamming. V could have just bet 50 to get me to fold.
I agree with this read of Villain's call preflop, since it's marginal. If I knew my opponent was wide, calling with 55 is justifiable IP, but versus a relatively tight player it isn't. He may not even have thought through the implications of stack depth and just wanted to play a hand (generally players want to play hands early in a session in my experience).
Regardless of the above, it's not about deciding whether Villain (and by extension his type) always overbet with merged hands when checked to on non-broadway boards in 3bet BN v BB pots: it's not like a MDA situation where you have a large enough sample size to make a specific conclusion of that kind. What you're talking about is a tendency to over protect equity when checked to --- a general inclination to overstab which is exploitable.
This tendency is both psychological (risk-averse desire to protect) and strategic (understanding their equity v a range on the flop) and generally you can rely on it being present to varying degrees during a session. For instance, villain, a few hours in, might see you only showdown KK+ in 3bet pots or notice that you check OOP with an overpair etc and make a strategic adjustment; conversely he might not see any of your 3bet showdowns and conclude that his play with 55 was correct.
