PAHWM: AKo OOP

Having said I would bet turn I'll stick with my commitment to a check-fold as played.

And on the as-played-as-played river with the caveat that I wouldn't get here like this, checking obviously, folding fine but there is definitely something to be said for a CRAI.

Missed most of this, I think flop and turn are fine and similar to what I'd do. Preflop raising 20 into 12 seems too small, and bad, without reads that Vs can fold correctly to smaller sizes (even more so given V is described as maybe tilted -- and thus. not going to fold correctly).

Vs. almost everyone at 1-2/1-3 I just x/f river but against described V it might be fine to shove, just folding anyway is also fine.

annoying hand to solve but mostly x/f turn vs bigger and call vs this and b/f are ok. it will never ever fold river with this combo, mostly calling but sometimes jamming. my only issue with jam is idk if he actually value bets the river with a straight. his sizing looks odd to me on both streets tbh

some food for thought is we have a flush about 10% of the time if we never have a leading range otr (you shouldn't), and a straight about 15%. my guess is both of those numbers are actually lower in practice. dunno how much u care about that sort of thing but this seems like a better call to what he is supposed to be repping than whatever else u can really have. im very very skeptical op actually c/c turn with many fds and i dont really see the line as that believable esp when TP+fd isn't a possibility. up to you if any of this matters vs random at 1/2 that is open limping mp but think its worth thinking about from a strategy perspective

Very curious what robot V is betting that AK beats on K♥9x7♥8xJ♥?

Is it bluffing a bunch, and which hands? Is it V betting KQ/QQ enough?

Is that because you think humans don't x/c flush draws enough on the turn, or because we don't fold enough non-flush draws on the turn?

I opened GTOwiz and had a look, obviously limp/multiway action etc. is bad/ignored and sizes don't map correctly because humans, so wouldn't trust it
Saying that it has a similar river results to what sub. got.

100bb 9max
LJ opens
SB 3bets
LJ calls

Pot: 21bb
Flop: K♥ 9♣ 7♥
SB b33 (happens ~50% of the time, other: b50 @30%, b20/b75 @~9% each - H's hand mixes similar to range)
LJ call

Pot: ~35bb
Turn: K♥ 9♣ 7♥ 8♦
SB x (happens ~66%, other: b33/b50/b75 in that order - H's hand mixes similar to range and has EV of everything as the same)
LJ b50 (happens ~23%, other x back is most common at 57% then b75)
SB c (almost pure, solver likes to bluff raise some with A♣)

Pot: ~70bb
River: K♥ 9♣ 7♥ 8♦ J♥
SB x (pure)
LJ b60 (happens ~15%, most common is shove @~46%, then check back @~40%)
SB c (never folds with A♥, shoves some with K♣ although EV is very similar and similar to other A♥K hands which pure call)

...note that All in here is like 15% of pot, lolz 😉 ... mainly due to stacks being bigger than 100bb and turn not being as small.

Things worth mentioning ...

Hero:
The small amount of A♥K♣ shove is the only bluff I can see (unless you include the KTs - note K♥T♥ never gets to this spot), but again see lolz pot size

H's flushes are maybe 25% of AQs and slivers of A9s/A8s (less than the amount of KK H has) then the tiniest slivers of A5s/A4s. So sub. probably has significantly different flush range.

Villain:
KQs/QQ from V pure checks turn.
KK from V that gets to turn mostly checks back.

V's betting range on the river is:

A bunch of Tx hands including A♥T♥ that gets here almost pure (but mostly shoves).
The bits of 66/55/22 that get here and don't shove
The bits of A♣J♣ that get here and doesn't shove.

tl;dr I'm not sure how useful that is ... but I'd be dubious of saying river call is good just because it's kind of solver approved here. And if we bluff, this combo. exactly is what solver picks some of the time.

Result:

played fine, dont underestimate the power of the naked ace bluff. if he takes 30s to call with a flush hes folding his straights.

Would stop doing this.

River seems very punty to me, especially against someone who may be tilted, especially with what I'm assuming a Banana image is. Yeah, he can't have the nut flush so that might make him think for a bit; but he can still have gobs of hands that will end up flipping in the calling chip.

GcluelesspuntingnoobG

Far from obvious he has many straights in range (many bad regs. who play this way won't bet straights), and it's not obvious he folds them either (again, bad regs. shrug call "good hands" without regard for relative strength). And given the hand he has I'd expect a decent number of combos. of flushes in range.

thanks NOM, it's been a rough few weeks...

I'll admit I was surprised to read a solver never folds this exact combo in this spot. Against humans, I don't think this would be a profitable call very often, though maybe it can be when hero bets so small on flop and checks turn. It just doesn't seem like low-stakes players are going to have enough bluffs or worse value here, as V.

96hh seems pretty thin to bet-call a check-jam, but maybe it's okay with hero's image and V's read on hero, or whatever. I vaguely recall checking back a J-high flush in a similar spot, on a similar run-out, precisely because I thought V likely had the nut blocker and could put me in the blender with a check-jam if I bet.

you play a very high variance style so thats expected. you also make a lot of expensive mistakes. those things combined = big downswings.

try playing nittier and more ABC, sticking almost 100% to value except in the case of 3betting in position in which case you want to 2 barrel frequently with air and occasionally 3 barrel with said air. i also recommend having less of an ego at the table. your reads on people from your posts here suggest you are overconfident to the point of narcissism. personally unless a player is really bad i dont attach negative adjectives to them.

i used ai solver so i got to pick the ranges. the reason river call is "good" or at least preferred (fwiw river call is winning a ton in my sim) is you need some river c/cs. again its hard to actually range the hand but villain is allegedly betting straights / flushes otr (i said this in my first post but its unclear for me this villain type always bets a straight even if he is supposed to). given that you can't really block a straight without having a straight, most of your c/cs need to center around blocking flushes.

in terms of bluffs for villain you're looking at a lot of 6x 7x underpair type stuff. do people bluff these hands? i have no idea but you need some kind of range that calls the river when hes risking 105 to win 180. granted would not totally try for mdf in unorthodox spot but like you're supposed to continue otr 65% of the time to make him indifferent to bluffing. its not really that obvious or clear to me something like a set / 2 pair is a better call than AK / AA with a heart when his range is straights and flushes.

re op having a flush, try to count actual combos that cbet the flop 3 ways and c/c the turn instead of betting from most people. solver will c/c ton of bare nfd ott but i dont think people really do that. just a weird board for it when tp +fd isn't possible, very few natural c/cs with fds. like if you got athh or whatever ott how many people cbet the flop to xc the turn with essentially no sdv when they turn combo draw? probably not many. even straights i just dont see that many. maybe KT? that decide to cbet 3 ways oop and then c/c turn.

my guess is if you can't c/c here (think this is honestly reasonable conclusion to come to), you can't x/r.

Honestly the reads on Vs are made to be entertaining to read and capture more viewers and replies, as is with the post titles. I get tired of reading everyone else's posts where V is described as "TAG" or "fish" with no real flavor or color to their personality 😉

This is decades old advice, I believe Barry Greenstein talks about it in his book where multiple players had told him they did it ... if you have an image as an aggressive player and go on a downswing, you just nit it up at every decision point and pretty much only value bet and nobody pays enough attention, so you get paid off a lot.

FWIW I can also say from personal experience that if you've ever had an image of being "too aggressive" it takes people a _long_ time to readjust.

Also FWIW, take breaks and work on your mental game as you study ... eventually you'll come out the other side (or like one guy I spoke to you stop playing for seven years 😉.