Opponent's tank-fold-reveal has me wondering what I'm supposed to have in this line.
This is NOT a reverse hand history, but my opponent showing his hand before he mucked had me thinking about what my rang
Really? You're not barreling the turn when you bink after semi-bluffing the flop? What's your plan for the river? Just check-call?
I mean ... barrelling into what? We hit a flush, but it's basically the nut low one so technically better than AA!d but I'd def. rather have red AA (top set+NFD).
It's hard to be certain with all the Xs in the HH, but having 9d and 5d likely blocks a lot of his low flushes. Obviously _if_ we know he's calling half pot on turn with 2nd pair and no draw into our flush then bombs away, and maybe bet a bit more so the river shove is half pot. But without that I'd assume I should have some checks, and some flushes when I check ... so this seems like a great candidate due to bluff catching etc and it shouldn't get a lot of calls drawing dead.
Then if I did bet the flush on the turn I'd very likely check the river because again we unblock everything sane for value and bluff cards but we can "happily" x/c any amount ... also a _lot_ more value in it going x/x and you showing your hand than if you had red AA. Probably still x/r all in if he bet tiny, but I think the main value is letting him bluff/value bet into you.
meh, hand is definitely strong enough to value bet all in. would take alot to convince me villain described as solid 1/3 reg who may think op is tilted is going to bluff way more than he's going to call down. the counter i guess is if turn goes x/x we can still just jam the river ourselves
lot of very strong judgements in this thread lol (not directed at anyone in particular)
Pre- I'm not going to criticize. You read a situation, the read was partially wrong, time to make lemonade.Flop- Can get lots of folds, have equity just in case.Turn- why so small? You don't have Ad or Kd, he could. Adx is calling anything, Any 2 broadway with one d is calling anything, if he has a made higher flush we're felted anyway. I think you can seriously consider jammin
Re - the turn sizing...
I remember in-game, thinking back to Hungry Horse videos, in which Marc suggests betting 1/2 pot when the nuts change, to give opponent's a chance to raise when they make a strong hand.
But at the same time, I was cognizant of the fact that I was getting way OOL pre, and it was possible for V to have a better flush. So if he did raise, I think I should probably fold, and therefore I didn't want to pot commit myself by going larger.
In retrospect, maybe that's just a terrible plan for the turn when I played the earlier streets the way I did. I think part of the reason V got to the river with his hand is that my bet sizes didn't telegraph massive strength.
Not in any way meant to pat myself on the back for the way I played the hand. It was very far from optimal or genius-level. At best, I think we can say I accidentally found a max value line with a marginal hand versus an opponent holding a somewhat better but also still marginal hand.
I think that's the big takeaway - if we took this line with a bluff we can barrel him off on the river. If we took it for value, we might be able to get called if we sized down slightly on the river, or checked an earlier street.
My specific hand choice wasn't good, but it did have some decent properties going for it, by way of blocking combos of A9s, A5s, K9s, and T9s - better flushes he might have in his range from pre-flop. If we think AKs gets 4B pre at some frequency, and most of his AQs/ATs gets raised on the turn, then it starts to weight his range towards worse value hands that might sigh-call the river jam
sizing is conceptual error pre imo - would go 65-70? when you're in bb youre at least supposed to be polarized as opposed to linear (your hand choice is kind of polar candidate) so you want to size bigger. your size makes more sense from the sb if you're playing 3b or fold - linear. is debatable what we actually want to flat here given 5x and people behind so would likely still
I can't argue with any of that.
Is that bet 10% pot on flop? What's the reasoning for that?
I think he (tried to denote his action via the "H" vs regular H) should fold turn to your action. I think you've more aces than you stated previously in your 3! range. While you're not Banana, I think you're 3!'ing more aces vs a FOS BU small raise over limpers, than merely calling, and while I don't think you're going as wide as a solver might (despite what you actually rais
I think you may have misunderstood something I said earlier, vis-a-vis my AX combos.
Yes, I have plenty of off suit AX that get 3B pre, but those hands aren't c-betting flop and barreling turn.
My reasoning - hands like AKo/AQo start to get concerned about JJ or aces up on the flop, or a flush on the turn. Ditto for worse AX, like ATs or A5s no diamonds. At some point, all those hands get checked, unless I'm over-playing them.
If I have AXdd, certain combos like AKdd and AQdd are going to c-bet flop but check turn. ATdd and worse AXdd probably check flop and bet turn.
Maybe I'm c-betting flop and barreling with AdKx, or I raised pre and c-bet the flop with some low AXdd combo that binked, but if so, I'd be taking an overly aggro line with those hands by betting both flop and turn.
So, yeah, I think he should probably just fold turn when it looks like I'm setting up a river jam. But if he's able to figure out I probably don't have the nuts in this line, then he has to wonder if I'm over-playing a hand that's better than his, or bluffing with air, or turning some worse SDV into a bluff.
Hard for him to call a shove with 2nd pair on an ace-high flush board. You 3! expecting he was weak, and then expect to get paid off.His raise of limpers in position with KJo seems OK, but there was a sizing tells which you tried to exploit.
I 3B pre thinking he could be polar, either weak, or very strong, hoping to induce. Once he calls pre, and the flop, I thought it condensed
He really shouldn’t be polar pre unless you are somehow reading that due to his small sizing
Really? You're not barreling the turn when you bink after semi-bluffing the flop? What's your plan for the river? Just check-call?
I mean ... barrelling into what? We hit a flush, but it's basically the nut low one so technically better than AA!d but I'd def. rather have red AA (top set+NFD).It's hard to be certain with all the Xs in the HH, but having 9d and 5d likely blocks a
This is wrong, he has plenty of broadway +1diamond to get direct value from on the turn given the preflop sizings
he has plenty of broadway +1diamond to get direct value from on the turn given the preflop sizings
Yes, he calls turn with most if not all large diamond draws. Although he shouldn't have "plenty" of unsuited broadway hands, GTO with a BTN open and BB 3bet (with GTO sizes) has BTN only calling ~20% of AKo 75% of AQo/AJo/KQo and maybe 10% of KJo and 5% of ATo.
He's also allowed to value/semi-bluff those if checked to (and we can shove). Dito. if he decided to just call JJ on the flop.
Those aren't value hands though, they are all draws. Yeh, some will have some showdown value, but it's still not the same as betting JJ on AJ95r where he'll have a bunch of 1 or 2 pair hands that he thinks might be good, as well as draws.
On the other side if we aren't checking this hand, do we never check with a flush? Do we check any of AA, or bet because he has the above draws? Do we never check?
Way too much thinking and absurd gto talk in a 1/3 live game in this thread. PF is obviously atrocious. Post flop you can bet flop small and bomb the turn because there are so many pair plus draws, two pairs etc. River is a straightforward jam. This really isn't complicated at all. Don't get fancy, 1/3 is value value value.
i will say that by far your biggest leak doc is you spend way too much time thinking about things that don't matter and absolutely no time thinking about the things that do
we had convo about efficiency of study time in a primrose thread that might be worth a read
fwiw i think most of the responders are not open minded enough about your reasons for doing things in this thread
Yes, he calls turn with most if not all large diamond draws. Although he shouldn't have "plenty" of unsuited broadway hands, GTO with a BTN open and BB 3bet (with GTO sizes) has BTN only calling ~20% of AKo 75% of AQo/AJo/KQo and maybe 10% of KJo and 5% of ATo.He's also allowed to value/semi-bluff those if checked to (and we can shove). Dito. if he decided to just call JJ on th
the thing is preflop defending ranges are dependent on rake / sizing. take a look at whatever gto pre range you're looking at and what the sizing is in the sim and compare it to here where hes facing a size thats effectively less than 3x because of the limps
