5-10-20, river go for value or check back?

its sb vs hj, prob even tighter because 3 blinds but i refuse to buy pre sims for an uncaring op ever again

is odd because its like the opposite of my 3b pot caller heuristics and i just dont see many tp / other pairs / lower sets that would cause such a shift (have admittedly not studied facing flop x/r as stabber very much at all)

though now i have no ****ing clue what pre sim i used for this and it doesnt look right

i had to restrain myself from posting something similar lol

fwiw i dont think 100/200 live players really exist, and i doubt they grind 5/10 in their spare time if they do. id imagine he occasionally plays stream game / private which is not drastically more difficult than 10/20 in some regards

still fairly useless speculation if you dont play vs good regs and wont look at a solver (not directed at RA)

every day discord becomes slightly more likely

ok strike all of my previous posts from the record

ok whatever i did earlier was wrong. here i have 99 3bing pure 88 ~50 and 77 ~25 and Jt more often and it makes decent difference. i see some betting allowed for oop (around 13% though i am going to node lock him to pure x).

i see oop still x/ring OPs like 33-50% depending on the x/r size i allow - 33 w v's, most with JJ which makes sense and tracks similar straightening boards ime. where it differes here is 99 is indifferent to jamming but will jam around 50%, along w JJ ~50%, some ATss / KTss w bdfd, and 65ss pure. oop pure xs this turn which makes sense, ip really likes to use small bet. it wants to use b25 when i allow it a bunch of different turn sizes but i still kind of like b10-b15 (it will pure bet 99). when i look at turn solve b25 makes v indiffereint with overpairs but b15 mostly forces continue which i think makes a lot of sense. i also just think b15 is annoying enough people r going to flick it in. it will check back some straights. river is indifferent between x / b50 / jam 99 but idk man. really interesting hand.

fwiw i think this line is not tilt fueled and would guess villain is very good based on flop line / sizing

is ouRA impetus for jamming river we just think in practice we have the fabled ~80% equity or so here? i can kinda get behind this is a random enough line and if its vs random at 5/10/20 he isn't going to worry about trapping / balancing really

is kind of a dumb point but worth asking. are u guys 1.8eff bc he is in for 1.8 or you are OP? it makes a difference i think (would lay like 5:1 v covers unless 2k is maxbuy but is maybe important). i think v good player obscenely unlikely to run multi street / large complex bluff atleast here right after getting felted vs 1800 stack is why im asking - if this is the case i see not much merit to xing turn. also i guess changes the river sim since id imagine him to just not really worry about checking Tx / aa / jj here either. (99 would become pure shove in theory w 100% equity if thats the case, though could argue he just overfolds to it which was what i was thinking re comments earlier)

lol, yes. I'm a simple man at the end of the day.

No idea if smaller sizes are tenable on the river. I'm not super studied on them in general and definitely not at this SPR, and I'm not gonna FAFO with it against someone like this.

I'm wholly on-board with underbetting turn, though. Again, I just tend to think high-freq/small-size makes our range much easier to play competently and very hard for OOP to play properly. And underbet is an established exploit on the xrc, x branch anyway (continuing on the assumption that 100z/midstakes tricks of the trade are going to work perfectly fine against someone who's more likely to be a shot-taker in some juicy underground SUG 7-2 sidebet nonsense 100/200 game than Phil Galfond). And obviously the SPR means there's basically no limit to how low we can go.

I covered V, he had just lost a big pot due to an unfair ruling and didnt have time to reload yet which is why i said he mightve been tilting

interesting. i dont know what to think about the implications of that

yeah its less of a studied thing otr and more of just i dont really think he calls if we jam lol. have minimal sample of this line in general let alone this runout so i could be off for sure

I am probably wrong and shouldn't comment on it, not playing those stakes. In a 2/5 game, if someone 3! and x/red leaving a psb behind on a wet board, he would rarely be folding to a flop 3!.

If our assumption is that V is never folding his over-pairs to a 3B jam getting 2:1, then I can get behind jamming the flop. I like it better if we think V is 3B'ing 88/77 a little more, and really like it if he's not often 3B'ing JTs or 65s from the SB.

Something I'm struggling with - in my mind, the 3B-jam on the flop looks super-nutted, such that I think V could fold his over-pairs. Are you saying that hero can have enough worse hands that V calling the jam with his over-pairs is +EV?

I completely understand the range-check and x/r, but there will be other boards that favor V's range more / hero's range less. And even if V isn't 3B'ing every combo of 77-99 and JTs with 100% frequency pre, he might still 3B some of those combos some of the time, such that he could have a x/r-fold and an x/r-call range here.

If V can have 13 combos of sets / straights that x/r-call a 3B-jam, and maybe he also calls off with TT, that's 19 combos, vs the other 24 combos of over-pairs. Maybe he also calls with JJ, blocking JT. Maybe occasionally 65s works its way into his 3B range pre. It seems like he's got enough value to split his range and fold some over-pairs in this line.

If hero jams flop, the pot will be around $2430 with $1200 to call, so V's only getting a hair over 2:1. What range of hands does he assign hero when he 3B-jams over the x/r, and do his over-pairs have 33% equity vs that range?

Like, hero opened and then flat called a 3B from V in the SB, and the board is 987rb. Hero's going to have all the sets here, and maybe occasionally some 2P or straights. If hero is ever flatting rather than 4B'ing pre with some big PP's, how many big PP's in V's range are going to love calling a 3B jam on the flop? If V has QQ/KK, he's basically hoping hero is punting with TT or JJ.

you aren't going to be able to get around looking at a solver for these spots

wild one. i guess he should block

Oof.

He definitely should have blocked. Definitely not jamming 99 in this spot, but it worked out, so what do I know?

If he's not calling after making top set, what does he call with? Only straights? How does he even have straights in this line?