NCAA Football 2025

Let's be as tough as possible and assume that Miami is behind 2-loss Utah, UGA, Ole Miss, Oregon, ND, Texas, OU

Let's also assume that 11-1 BYU or Tech that loses the B12CG is ahead of Miami but 10-2 is not. Let's also just reduce the B12 title to BYU and Tech

Let's also assume they cannot catch IU OSU ATM BAMA

So:

at least 1 of Tech/BYU will be ahead of them. The odds both are ahead of them are 53%

At least 1 of UVA/GT/Lou will get the ACC bid. Duke getting it knocks out UVA at minimum. For now let's just assume it's Louisville.

So that's 5 champs, IU or OSU and Bama or ATM ahead of them, so 7 spots taken 5 left.

There are 11 teams ahead of them, and they need to jump 7 of them.

UGA (lose twice) - 13%
Ole Miss (lose twice) - 9%
B12 loser (lose 2x BYU or lose 1x TT, then lose B12) - 47%
Oregon (lose twice) - 15%
ND - 28%
Texas - 93%
OU - 82%
Utah - 55%
UVA - 85%
GT - 93%
Vandy - 79%

I get:

~0% chance they jump all 11
0.2% chance they jump 10
1.5% chance they jump 9
9% chance they jump 8
23% chance they jump 7, which is what they need

So about a 33% chance they get in IF they win out, under the toughest possible assumptions. 33% is not exactly "chaos"

Additional things that could go even more in their favor:

- In the 'Jump only 6' scenario (another 33%) they are the first bubble team, but they are usually ONE SPOT behind ND. Their resume will be comparable to ND's, their power rating will be comparable to ND's and they will have H2H. Will they really get left out?

- Texas Tech is favored by 10.5 over BYU. Imagine they slap them down by 20, then beat them by 20 again in the B12 CG. Is BYU really getting in over Miami at that point? Especially if Utah is ALSO in? Are they really gonna give the B12 three teams?! (although BYU did beat Utah so...)

- Let's say the top teams keep winning so Ole Miss stays at 6. They have a very losable game @ 5-6 Mississippi State in the finale. Miami is probably like 12th at this point. If Miami beats Pitt and Ole Miss loses to Mississppi State and they both finish 10-2 are we SURE OM is ahead? OM has the easie
st SEC schedule possible.

- Oregon's best win is currently Northwestern. Let's say they beat USC and Iowa giving them each their 3rd loss. Then they play each other which gives one another loss. If the other one loses another game, Oregon might end with zero top-25 wins. If they then lose the finale @ Washington, what happens? Again, assume Miami is like 11 and Oregon is like 8. Are they gonna stay ahead of Miami in spite of zero top-25 wins and ending the season on a loss? Would Washington JUMP Miami? (they could lose @ UCLA and make it easy on Miami)

GT is probably in if they run the table then lose the ACCCG. If they lose to UGA and then lose again in the ACCCG they're stone dead

UVA on the other hand, is not a lock if they run the table and then lose in the ACCCG since they won't have that huge win over UGA.

What happens to 10-2 Pitt that runs the table? They'd need Louisville or UVA to lose to make the ACCCG. If they make the ACCCG win and in and lose and out.

But what if they don't make it? They'd KO Miami, ND and GT along the way. They're already ranked. Eight wins in a row including over those 3 teams and FSU?

I think they have a slim shot, call it 20% but it's not zero

SMU is obviously dead unless they win the ACC

Texas Tech can either win the B12 or run the table and lose in the title game and they're in. I have that at 73%, about the same as Vegas

BYU can either win the B12, run the table and lose in the title game, or lose 1 game, then lose the title and sneak in with maybe 30% chance

Utah is tough. If they win out (45%)

They're ahead of GT and Louisville right now, but surely GT and probably UL will jump them if they win out. So basically the same calculus as Miami, except they don't need to jump Vandy and they don't need to jump themselves (although they might get stuck behind 11-2 BYU bc of H2H)

So that has them at better than a flip to make it, in the 55%ish range (if they win out)! which seems insane

Duke is currently the plurality favorite in the ACC at 25%. They are only -8.5 at UConn this weekend. If they lose to UConn and win the ACC, there is a very real possibility that they are the 6th conf champ (behind AAC champ and 12-1 SDSU or 12-1 JMU) and they get left out.

What are Texas' odds at 9-3?

Texas rises at least to #10 this week on their bye over the TT/BYU loser, possibly #9 if Oregon loses @ Iowa

If they lose to UGA the following week,

Say UVA (@ Duke) and OU (@ Bama) also lose

They get jumped by 1-loss GT, USC, Utah, Louisville, 8-2 Miami?

Maybe also Vandy, even though they beat them?

5 UGA
6 Texas Tech
7 Ole Miss
8 Oregon
9 ND
10 Utah
11 Louisville
12 BYU?
13 GT
14 Vandy
15 BYU
16 Miami
17 USC
18 Michigan
19 Texas? oof

Week 13 they beat Arkansas
BYU loses to Cincy (or TCU prior week)
USC loses to Oregon
Louisville loses @ SMU
GT beats Pitt

5 UGA
6 Texas Tech
7 Ole Miss
8 Oregon
9 ND
10 Utah
11 GT
12 Vandy
13 Miami
14 Texas

Week 14, Texas beats 11-0 ATM at home
Vandy loses @ Tennessee
GT loses to Georgia

So that puts it at least
5 UGA
6 Texas Tech
7 Ole Miss
8 Oregon
9 ND
10 Utah
11 Miami
12 Texas

They'd need to get to 10 to go. Between ND, Utah, Miami and Texas you'd have three 10-2 teams and one 9-3 team, and two spots.

Texas would have wins over:
- Top-5 ATM (who beat ND at ND)
- 9-3 ranked Vandy
- 9-3 or 8-4 ranked Oklahoma

and three losses, two of which were narrow road losses to top-5 teams. Do you really want to punish them for scheduling Ohio State?

Utah would have 0 or 1 top-25 wins. I have to think they're out.

Miami probably has 2 ranked wins (ND and maybe USF or Pitt)

ND could easily have no ranked wins.

Genuinely don't know who they would take

And of course, this could get easier if ND or Miami lose @ Pitt, or Utah loses @ Baylor

What if they lose the finale to Texas A&M?

After beating UGA, they'd clearly jump ND and UGA and the BYU/Tech loser. They might even jump 1-loss Oregon as well, although Oregon would also be picking up a good win @ Iowa.

So thye're probably 8th.

Maybe Bama or Oregon loses one of their losable games and they're up to 7th.

Would losing to 11-0 ATM in the last game really drop them from the playoffs? No clue.

What if they lose to Arkansas? That would be a second bad loss (Arkansas would finish 3-9 and 1-7 in the SEC), but it would also mean they pick up two top-5 wins.

For some reason iowa state is listed at -2000 to not make the playoff on mgm

Not great return but it's 100%

If you guys are in to free money, deposit some USDC on Kalshi. You earn 4% just for holding, so you basically break even vs the interest rate.

I am selling:
30k contracts of Auburn NO
25k contracts of LSU NO
3.5k contracts of Nebraska NO
3.5k contracts of Tennessee NO

For 99 cents

So you make 1% in 1 month plus the baseline 4% rate on up to 62k

Haven't seen a team start out with two defensive touchdowns for a while...wonder if we'll see USF's offense before the 2nd quarter.

UTSA first posession, pick six
UTSA second posession, fumble six
UTSA third posession, punt, muffed, UTSA recovers

USF offense hasn't stepped foot on the field lol

This is great, they're really asking us to look closely at this guy's "cheek"

lol

They're a borderline bye team m8

Nvm

lol, most consistent clownshow on 2p2 outside of politics. Never change

Here's my political contribution for the year: Anarcho-socialism ftw. Democratize all institutions. The idea that people should have to work for a private dictatorship for the majority of their waking adult lives is absurd. And the idea that we should submit to a system that prioritizes profit maximization over the health and well-being of people, animals and the planet is even more absurd. The .1% that effectively own this planet are out numbered 999-1. Fight the power! "Rise like lions after slumber in unvanquishable number. Shake your chains to earth like dew, which in sleep had fallen on you. For ye are many – they are few."

You don't have to work for whatever that is.

BYU did not have to punt on 4th and 7 at midfield, trailing 0-19 at the dawn of the 4th qtr.

Nobel Prize

Um..... there's some undefeateds that aren't gonna be undefeateds in about a half hour.

What the **** was that spike?

Stop ****ing spiking the ball! You have plenty of time.

Penn state doesn't want it. Prevent defence never works. Should be banned by all teams.

Pedos might wish they had those two TOs back.

But of course there is no God, so they'll hold here.

omg that's a catch..... insane

That would have been a catch in the NFL. Holy ****.

Holy ****