Second mortal nuts get raised OTR

I think we can fold unless you think villain overvalue Ax.

I think we should bet huge on turn to set up river shove to get max value from random 4x, 99.

Turn bet is way too small. As played just jam, I don’t see why he can’t have 99.

Turn and river bets way to small. As played, 3! shove river.

There's a single A out there and a single 4, easy to think that V consider Ax to be the effective nuts here and V surely has more Ax than 4x in his range.

I don't understand the micro bets on the flop, turn, and river. Want to build the pot. Can't worry about everyone folding.

He doesn’t bluff raise rivers. Ever. You’re beat. Fold and move on.

Unless it's A9 or A4.

It's the definition of a cooler if V has the case 4. FWIW, I think V as described behaves exactly the same with any/all of 99/A4/54/A9/Ax. H beats vast majority of those, V should call off a shove with pretty much all of it, so shove.

I don't think the takeaway from the HH is "he only raises the nuts, but only on the river". I think the more likely takeaway with 80% vpip is "he doesn't understand relative vs absolute hand strength"

You can call or ship. I ship. It's a cooler if he has a 4

$25 into $120 is not barreling 😉 I go bigger on turn. River is for sure a call (please don't fold, LOL). I might shove. It's going to be tough for him to fold an A.

Turn and river bets are tiny. Could provoke a bluff or light value bet. Need to 3! shove river. Folding 2nd nuts on river is ridiculous.

Grunch:

Based on the prior hand, V sounds trappy and unbluffable. Against such a V, I'd be sizing up with value and basically never bluffing.

PRE - for crying out loud, raise bigger. At least $20. If V on BTN is loose-sticky pre I might open to $25, expecting the blinds to call too often once he calls.

FLOP - I'd c-bet bigger. At least half pot, $30.

TURN - I'd barrel huge when the BDFD appears. We can't expect them to put more money in for us. Probably betting around $90.

RIVER - any pair is a boat. I might check to let him bluff or bet worse for value.

As played, even if he's super passive and trappy, I'd think he'd raise 4x on the turn when the BDFD appears and the BB is still in the hand. I'm not folding top boat. I probably jam and pray he calls. If he's got quads he's got quads. Just pay the man.

I agree you've got to bet bigger on the turn and river.

As played I'm probably calling the river raise. I can see the argument for jamming.

It's one of those spots where fish tend to show up with unexpected hands, so it's hard to logically work through.

Pre flop the only 4x he should be continuing with are probably A4s and 44, which leaves no combos of 4x by river. However against fish they'll sometimes end up showing down some random stuff like 54o so I do think we have to be a little wary about the possibility of a 4.

Likewise on the flop he should be folding most Ax with two players still to act, unless he has A4s or A9s. This limits the potential Ax combos we're ahead of that could get to the river and potentially call a jam.

If you jam river I would say you're mainly targeting 99 and maybe A9 and all you're worried about is an oddly played 4. However with him being a fish with an 80% VPIP I do think a 4 is a real possibility so I probably just call.

Seems like this V could be flatting pre and floating flop with every combo of A9 to AK. He might have slow played 99, and I wouldn't totally rule out some combos over-played PP's that he's turning into a bizarre spaz-bluff.

Result: I fold. V says 22 but doesn't show.

I get the argument for shoving, I would probably call in game.

Fold is suboptimal IMO.

Folding is kinda ridiculous when he can value raise with worse.

Fold is terrible. You provoke a raise by betting tiny. It is hard to make quads. There aren't many combinations and he needs to call preflop with A4s, 54s, 64s or something like that. He should be raising hands you beat.

You are also guaranteed not to get much value from 2nd nuts the approach you took. You bet tiny on the river and then folded to the raise. Naturally, you need to bet large for value, particularly at low stakes. The only reasonable reason for betting so small is to provoke a raise, but then you folded to a raise.

I limp in but that's me.

I'm fine with a small cbet.

I would bet way larger on the turn. We're basically just praying one of these two guys has 4x and we want to setup a play for stacks on the river. We're not getting much action from any other hands (although someone who somehow picked up a flush draw will pay off) so we can kinda ignore targeting anything else, just go for the gold against the big hands.

Lol, super gross river. I probably bet larger to target Ax (maybe upwards of 1/2 PSB) and then consider making a hero fold if raised. Even though it was a very small turn bet, it is still concerning he made the call with the other guy behind him on a fairly drawless board. Facing the reraise on the river really sucks, as most passive MUBSy LLSNL players (which this guy clearly is given his HH line) only call with fullhouses because they fear re-opening the action for stacks versus 4x. I mean, if we get a sense this guy has played some casino poker over the years and I'm playing my best, I probably make the exploitative fold here, but in truth I'm probably just not good enough to do that.

ETA: Didn't even consider that this was a jam versus call situation. I can get behind calling. How the heck does he see the turn with the single Ax in the deck with 2 others to react? The most common trait in LLSNL players is MUBSyness, which is why they miss so much value on the river (never betting TP for thin value, never betting a straight with a flush on board, never betting anything other than a boat on a paired board, etc.). This guy made the nut straight in the HH hand and check/called it down. Think our river sizing should have been larger which makes a fold easier, but honestly don't hate it is much as everyone else, so long as Villain isn't giving off noobish vibes.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The reason why jamming is on the table is because 99 is still very much in Villain’s range. Otherwise no I am not jamming.

I don't know. I'm running so badly lately I guess it just got in my head that he had a 4 somewhere in the line. That's literally all he had is a 4 or 99. He doesn't do this with a naked A. And I imagine he has everything from A4o and about 10 combos of suited 4X for 15 pre in position.

Maybe you were on tilt, because this hand does not seem like your usual style.

You are getting 2.3-1, so have to call. Your read might also not be perfect. OK, not to shove based on read.

There aren't that many combinations of 4s, because there is only one 4 left. He can't have Ac4c. Not sure he calls with Ad4c, so maybe Kc4c, 6c4c, 5c4c, 4c3c. There are also 3 combinations of 99 possible.

I don't understand the rationale for the tiny turn and river bets.

So...we've all gotten stuck in our own heads when we're running bad. It's understandable. You can't let it be an excuse to not learn and improve, nor can you let it feed into a self-defeating mindset that turns into self-fulfilling prophesy.

Don't know if this helps, but it may be worth keeping in mind for the future...

1. Most low stakes players are recs who play for fun. Folding isn't fun, so they play WAY too many hands.

2. When they play too many hands, they show up with such wide ranges that we need to consider not just the possibility they'll have some trashy hand that became nutted, but also consider the much more likely possibility that they'll turn something random into a super-spazzy bluff, even if it makes zero sense to us.

3. Most of them are terrified of being out-drawn or not getting max value when they make a nutted hand with some trash they should have folded on an earlier street. This leads them to start super-fast-playing whenever it looks like we have a hand that's strong enough to call or a draw appears.

4. There's a type of player, often middle-aged or older men, very often from parts of the world where stupidity is frequently conflated with bravery, who hates being bluffed so much that they're simply un-bluffable.

5. As a corollary to the above, when we show any sign of weakness, they'll bluff, for the same reasons they hate being bluffed. It's about bravery for them, not theory. They're more embarrassed to check back with a missed draw than show down an absurd bluff. They say things like, "it was the only way I could win."

What's going on in their heads doesn't hold up under logical scrutiny, but we need to allow ourselves to consider all the possibilities, not limit our thinking to only those possibilities which make sense to us.

When you raise small pre, they're going to continue wider. Especially this type of guy - if he VPIP's 80%, he hates folding, especially on the BTN or BB. He views it as his job to keep everyone else "honest".

When you bet 1/3p on the flop, he's calling with any piece of the board, and any PP, because he either has a piece and thinks you could be FOS, or he's hoping he can improve, or that you'll slow down and check, and he can steal the pot from you with a bet - it doesn't make a difference to him if he's betting for value or bluffing.

When you barrel turn for an absurdly small size, he's calling with EVERYTHING. Literally. Think about it - any hand that he folds to this sizing already folded on the flop. He's not folding any pair or draw getting almost 6 to 1.

But if he had thick but vulnerable value, like 4x, he'd raise. He's going to raise because he puts us on AX that made top pair and will pay him off, or he puts us on the BDFD, or he's worried we won't pay him off with our AX if the flush draw comes in on the river and he bets, even for a small size.

Hell, he might even raise the flop, with no draw on board, rather than let you catch a two-outer to make a boat. They just don't ever slow-play when their hand is strong but vulnerable. They slow play when their hand is invulnerable.

Guys like this don't mind you folding when they fast-play. They'll show you 4x so you know they're calling your pre-flop raises with everything, as a way to discourage you from bluffing them. They HATE being bluffed, which is why we can value-bet them to death.

The prior hand history isn't enough for us to decide that he's always nutted when he takes this line. That hand was multi-way, and he was in the middle. He turned the nuts, he didn't smash the flop. He called the OOP donk and barrel with the TAG behind him.

He didn't bet or raise with his hand because he didn't think he needed to. I'd bet a lot of money he said something like "you got lucky on the river" to the TAG who boated up.

Your micro-bet sizing is going to induce some frequency of spaz-raise, and the smaller you bet on each street, the more hands he has that get to the river and feel like they have to raise once they've come this far and your line looks weak. When we show weakness, this type of opponent will pounce.