NCAA Football 2025

So the first CFP ranking was:

3 B1G (tOSU, IU, ORE)
4 SEC (A&M, BAMA, GA, MISS)
2 B12 (TT, BYU)
1 ACC (UVA)
1 G5 (MEM)
1 IND (ND)

You can remove one B12 team if you drop BYU following their loss (pending the results of the B12CG, but that's still only going to get 1 team in even if they avenge their loss I'd think).

B1G is keeping 3 in, ACC has to get 1 and G5 has to get 1.

So that gives you 1 extra spot which has to come from removing ND. But ND was ranked 10, Texas 11, and OU 12, so if all 3 win out in your argument, does whichever of those teams doesn't take the B12 loser's spot do enough to justify jumping ND? OU will have beaten BAMA and Mizzou and Texas will have beaten Georgia and A&M, so both obviously have better cases than ND.

Edit: Two things. I saw you said TTU wins the B12 in your hypothetical so obv they're in and BYU is out with 2 losses. You also said Ole Miss beats A&M in the SECCG. That would be pretty hilarious since you'd have 2 loss ND against 2 loss A&M, so you'd have to deal with "But ND's losses were earlier in the year" and then "But A&M lost in the CG so that shouldn't really count" and ultimately A&M holding that 1 point h2h win over ND. This would be a golden outcome for talking heads. They'd eat for days as ND gets left out.

That’s my thinking but its further justified by head to heads. UGA will have beaten ACC champ so tough to leave them out. Bama has H2H on UGA. OU has H2H on Bama. Texas has H2H on OU. That leaves A&M but I dont think they can get punished for losing the SEC championship. So feels like all 6 make it. I know the head to heads are all kinda circular, but its a fun thought experiment

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Think it's pretty clearly all the sec schools and the rest left out, resumes wouldn't even be close. Seems to be something like 80% resume and 20% power ranking plus factor in head to head.

Maybe sec champ loser left out, not sure who even plays in those scenarios

Some really tough final at large choices possible though. Ole Miss, notre dame, Oregon, Michigan could have very similar 10-2 records in various scenarios.

I think it's looking increasingly likely there are multiple deserving 10-2 teams. Not sure what's going to happen.

Indy getting smoked in the semis prolly.

Go Greyhounds!!

Ah, you have it backwards; ND would jump them immediately, then the committee would just *not* find a way to have UGA jump 10-2 ND later. How about, don’t lose two home games?

Seriously; this is the most popular team by a huge margin, they were in the final last year, they will have won 10 in a row, they’re right there in power ratings and they’ve legitimately looked like one of the best teams in the country ever since two close losses to top-ranked teams—one on the road and the other a total fluke missed xp. Great qb, 2 great rbs, defense is back to stellar; “eye test” mother****er. They’re in easily, without the committee even mentioning ND beat UGA in the playoffs last year.

But it won’t even come down to the two of them. ND will already be in and I expect (barring amazing suckitude without actually losing, somehow) they get a home game because it pretty much guarantees 2 Notre Dame playoff games.

It was thoroughly discussed sixty odd pages ago itt that a 10-2 ND is a mortal lock for the playoffs and mountains would be moved to sneak them in at 9-3, and anyone who thinks otherwise is a barely functional preguard.

^^^^

JMU Dukes are big Duke fans right now

We started with 36 teams alive for the playoff:

- TCU picked up their 3rd B12 loss, to ISU
- Washington picked up their 3rd loss, to woeful Wisconsin
- Iowa lost to Oregon in a hard fought, rainy battle
- Mizzou lost their 3rd game, which will bump them out in the crowded SEC
- SDSU is toast after losing to Hawaii. They'd be behind 9-4 Duke.

That leaves us with 31 teams still in the hunt for the 12 playoff bids.

Still kicking:

7 ACC teams:
GT
UVA
SMU
Pitt
Duke
Louisville
Miami

All 7 ACC teams are still live, including Duke who is 24% or so to win the ACC. However, Duke might not even get in if they win the ACC! They'd be 9-4 with maybe 1 top-25 win (UVA) three so/so losses (Tulane, Illinois GT) and one horrible loss (UConn). Seems likely that 12-1 JMU finishes ahead of them.

The ACC all but incinerated their chance for multiple bids (11-2 GT loses to UVA in the title game? GT/UVA champ and 10-2 Miami?), but everybody is still alive because most of the front runners lost, and gigantic multi-way ties at 2 losses are very plausible now.

6 American teams:
Navy
USF
Tulane
Memphis
UNT
ECU

4 B12 teams:
BYU
Cincy
Texas Tech
Utah

5 Big-10 teams:
Indiana
OSU
Oregon
USC
Michigan

Notre Dame

7 SEC teams:
ATM
Alabama
UGA
Ole Miss
Texas
Oklahoma
Vandy

Non AAC G5:
James Madison

WEDNESDAY
7:00:00 PM Buffalo 2.5
7:00:00 PM Central Michigan -1.5

7:00:00 PM Northern Illinois -11.5
7:00:00 PM Massachusetts 11.5

7:00:00 PM Toledo -4
7:00:00 PM Miami (OH) 4.5

THURSDAY
7:30:00 PM Troy 11.5
7:30:00 PM Old Dominion -10.5

FRIDAY
7:30:00 PM Clemson 3
7:30:00 PM Louisville -2.5
7-5 is not going to make anybody at Clemson happy, but winning out against FSU, Louisville and USCe would be a decent finish to the season. Louisville somehow just lost at home to my Cal Bears and now has to win out and hope they win a multi-way tie to get in to the ACC CG, because even at 10-2 they are all but dead for the playoff.

9:00:00 PM Minnesota 25.5
9:00:00 PM Oregon -25.5
Oregon finishes with Minn, USC and @ Washington. They're a lock at 11-1, but they might be a bubble team at 10-2 if the SEC keeps going chalk.

SATURDAY
12:00:00 PM Air Force 7.5
12:00:00 PM UConn -7

12:00:00 PM UTSA -18.5
12:00:00 PM UNC Charlotte 18.5

12:00:00 PM South Florida -10.5
12:00:00 PM Navy 10.5
AAC elimination game. Pretty likely two teams in the AAC finish with 1 loss, so a 2nd loss probably kills you, and both of these teams already have 1.

12:00:00 PM South Carolina 19.5
12:00:00 PM Texas A&M -18.5

12:00:00 PM Arizona 6.5
12:00:00 PM Cincinnati -6.5
If Cincy can win here, that sets up a massive de-facto elimination game against BYU the following week

12:00:00 PM Kansas State -19.5
12:00:00 PM Oklahoma State 19.5

12:00:00 PM Notre Dame -12.5
12:00:00 PM Pittsburgh 12.5
ND's only quality opponent left on the schedule. A narrow win here might also look bad if fellow potential bubble teams GT and Miami (who Pitt plays next) blow out the Panthers (or vice versa).

12:00:00 PM Wisconsin 29.5
12:00:00 PM Indiana -29.5

12:00:00 PM Michigan -11.5
12:00:00 PM Northwestern 11.5
Win and stay alive for Michigan

12:00:00 PM Eastern Michigan -2.5
12:00:00 PM Ball State 2.5

12:45:00 PM Arkansas 5.5
12:45:00 PM LSU -5.5

1:00:00 PM Oregon State -2.5
1:00:00 PM Tulsa 2.5

1:00:00 PM West Virginia 11.5
1:00:00 PM Arizona State -11.5

1:30:00 PM Tennessee Tech 20.5
1:30:00 PM Kentucky -20.5
Kentucky has won 2 in a row, stifling Auburn 10-3 then beating the doors off of Florida 38-7. I don't know anything about FCS Tennessee Tech other than that they're 10-0, which makes this interesting!

2:00:00 PM Marshall -7.5
2:00:00 PM Georgia State 8

2:00:00 PM North Texas -18
2:00:00 PM UAB 18.5

3:00:00 PM Colorado State 14.5
3:00:00 PM New Mexico -14

3:00:00 PM UTEP 4.5
3:00:00 PM Missouri State -4.5

3:30:00 PM San Jose State -9.5
3:30:00 PM Nevada 9.5

3:30:00 PM Appalachian State 21.5
3:30:00 PM James Madison -21
Duke badly wants the Dukes to lose a game. The Dukes badly want Duke to win out.

3:30:00 PM South Alabama -4.5
3:30:00 PM Louisiana-Monroe 5

3:30:00 PM Texas State 4.5
3:30:00 PM Southern Miss -4

3:30:00 PM Middle Tenn. St 13.5
3:30:00 PM Western Kentucky -13.5

3:30:00 PM Oklahoma 6
3:30:00 PM Alabama -5.5
It's messed up, but this is probably an elimination game for Oklahoma. If they lose here, wins against Mizzou and LSU won't move the needle enough to get them in. Alabama can withstand a loss, but a loss here puts a lot of pressure on the Iron Bowl on the road in the season finale. Lose both of those, and they're likely out.

3:30:00 PM Central Florida 24.5
3:30:00 PM Texas Tech -23.5
UCF has been showing some signs of life lately, but probably not enough to keep this one close. Tech ends with this one then @ WV and will be heavily favored in both

3:30:00 PM Georgia Tech -16.5
3:30:00 PM Boston College 16.5
GT wisely sat out the ACC chaos last weekend. Assuming they get past 1-9 BC (and nobody is taking anything for granted in the ACC), they play Pitt at home then a massive closer against archrival Georgia. GT is the hardest playoff contender to figure out. Seeing as they're sitting at 16th, would a loss to Pitt and a win against UGA get them in at 10-2? I don't think so. If they win both ACC games, lose to UGA, then lose in the ACCG are they in? I don't think so. If they finish 11-1 and lose in the ACCCG are they in? I think very likely.

3:30:00 PM Virginia 5.5
3:30:00 PM Duke -5.5
Huge playoff implications here for the ACC, the AAC and James Madison.

3:30:00 PM North Carolina State 14.5
3:30:00 PM Miami -14.5
Miami has gotten off to slow starts before blowing out woeful Stanford and Syracuse, and they moved up 3 spots this week over fellow ACC teams Louisville, UVA and idle GT. NC State is only 5-4 but they've beaten Virginia and Georgia Tech so they are dangerous. With ND, Texas, OU, BYU and Utah all facing significant threats this week, this is Miami's big chance to make a move up the rankings.

3:30:00 PM Maryland 15.5
3:30:00 PM Illinois -14.5

3:30:00 PM Iowa 7
3:30:00 PM USC -6.5
Iowa is still ranked, so that means USC probably moves up a decent amount if they win here, which puts them in great position to leapfrog a lot of teams if they can parlay that with a win @ Oregon the following week. They're probably in at 10-2, but a little chaos wouldn't hurt.

3:30:00 PM Penn State -7.5
3:30:00 PM Michigan State 7.5

4:00:00 PM Memphis 2.5
4:00:00 PM East Carolina -2.5
AAC double elimination game #2

4:00:00 PM Florida Atlantic 18
4:00:00 PM Tulane -17.5
AAC elimination game for Tulane

4:15:00 PM New Mexico State 40.5
4:15:00 PM Tennessee -39.5

4:30:00 PM North Carolina 6.5
4:30:00 PM Wake Forest -6

5:00:00 PM Liberty -2.5
5:00:00 PM Florida International 3

6:00:00 PM Coastal Carolina 3
6:00:00 PM Georgia Southern -2.5

7:00:00 PM Utah State 6.5
7:00:00 PM UNLV -6

7:00:00 PM Delaware -9.5
7:00:00 PM Sam Houston 10

7:00:00 PM Florida 15.5
7:00:00 PM Mississippi -15.5
Ole Miss only has two games left 3-6 Florida and 5-5 Mississippi State. I assume they are in at 10-2 but man, they really shouldn't push it. They've faced a schedule that's a lot lighter than you might think, and have only one ranked win.

7:00:00 PM Utah -8.5
7:00:00 PM Baylor 8.5
Great weekend for Utah even if they were idle and didn't move. UVA and Louisville, who I had assumed would eventually jump Utah if they won out, both lost. BYU lost by a sizable margin, and Cincinnati got ranked. They really want Cincy to win out, which would vault them into the top-20 and drop BYU past them. ASU at 9-3 would be great also.

7:00:00 PM Purdue 17
7:00:00 PM Washington -16.5

7:30:00 PM Texas 6
7:30:00 PM Georgia -5.5
Texas has Arkansas and ATM at home. A blowout loss probably eliminates them, a close loss they have a fighting chance to be the one 9-3 team that could get included. UGA has Charlotte (lol) and GT. They need to beat either Texas or GT to get in, certainly can't lose to both. A loss also drops them out of contention for the SEC title and a top-4 bid.

7:30:00 PM Virginia Tech 14
7:30:00 PM Florida State -13.5

7:30:00 PM UCLA 33.5
7:30:00 PM Ohio State -31.5
UCLA has come back to earth after their 3 game run, losing by a thousand at Indiana and losing a coin flip at home against Nebraska. They are 32 point dogs here for a reason, but it would be so funny if they shocked the world one more time.

7:45:00 PM Mississippi State 7.5
7:45:00 PM Missouri -7

8:00:00 PM Kennesaw State -3
8:00:00 PM Jacksonville State 3.5

10:00:00 PM Louisiana Tech 8.5
10:00:00 PM Washington State -7.5

10:15:00 PM TCU 4.5
10:15:00 PM BYU -4.5
Huge game for BYU. A loss means they're hoping to win a massive 7-2 tiebreak to get back into the B12CG. A win keeps hopes alive of making the B12CG at 11-1 and likely getting a bid even if they lose.

10:30:00 PM Boise State 3
10:30:00 PM San Diego State -2.5

10:30:00 PM Wyoming 3.5
10:30:00 PM Fresno State -3.5

Record 30-35. Superlocks: 3-8

Here's the LOCKS of the week:

Pittsburgh +11.5 (-112)
Oklahoma +7.5 (-155)
Penn State -6.5 (-139)
Florida +15.5 (-108)
Georgia -6 (-110)
Baylor +8.5 (-110)
Michigan ML (-500)

$20 to win $902.01

As before, I just added Michigan ml to juice the parlay over $800. If Michigan wins I'm not counting it towards my record but if they lose I will (They're never losing tho). My superlock of the week has to be Penn State -6.5 vs Mich State. Penn State is basically a few plays away from being 8-1 right now. They're a legit top 10-15 team. Michigan State is a complete dumpster fire with very little talent anywhere on the roster. The Nittany Lions keep showing a lot of fight. Even with half that passion they should beat the Spartans by double digits. Load up gentlemen. This is truly free money. Seriously this time.

Michigan

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Also, Texas Tech jumping Ole Miss is a great example of why the committee > AP/coaches

Tech beat a top-10 team 29-7, while Ole Miss beat the Citadel. The committee allows itself to switch teams even when somebody wins, which the AP/coaches seem to think is illegal

Also lol AP who had OU at 11 and Texas at 13 last week, then jumped Texas over OU to match the committee despite neither team playing

Kennesaw State / Jacksonville State is a HUGE game for their conference.

Thanks for the weekly write ups GB. I think we all appreciate them

just this afternoon sparty threw a pity party after receiving three years double secret probation as a result of mel tugger loading up on other sorts of wreckless passion

while simultaneously experiencing a hangover the day after their coaching staff hung up one of the final emotional crutches by benching chiles for milivojevic
(no need to feel awkward or panic, there are at least a million ways to your victory while pronouncing that last name, you go have fun exploring playful ways of saying different letter clusters aloud)

speaking of vowels, aidan was unable to beat out dju in corvallis
(please pause and reflect upon that mirror for few seconds)

so he quit being a buld the dam beaver and followed j.smith to least chancing, immediately being named starter and team captain

agree miss you stock is plumeting but predict this game result is a dead cat bounce shrouded in spartan back door covering that gets him an additional contract year

Let massive, multi-way tiebreaker chaos reign

The only remaining games between these teams are:

Navy - USF
Navy - Memphis
Memphis - ECU

UNT and Tulane don't play any of the others

The only remaining games between these teams are:

GT - Pitt
UVA - Duke
Miami - Pitt
SMU - Louisville

A 7-way tie at 6-2 is well within the realm of possibility

Louisville and Miami win out, Pitt beats GT, and the Duke/UVA loser drops another game is all it would take

Only ONE game remains bewteen all these teams, BYU vs Cincy

So if the winner of that game loses once (extremely plausible), could easily have a 5 way tie for 2nd at 7-2

(TCU plays THREE of these teams)

Hell I guess that means TCU is still live. If they scoop, Houston would have 3 losses, and the BYU/Cincy loser would have 3 losses, and the winner would have 2. Winner loses 1, ASU loses 1, Utah loses 1, we have a SIX way tie for 2nd at 6-3

Hell, If Arizona wins out and Cincy > BYU, then that takes care of Cincy's extra loss and ASU's extra loss as well. Why not go 7 ways?