NCAA Football 2025

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Lol actually I made the same mistake I talked about earlier. If this happened, its IU/USC in the B1GCG I believe (same record against common opps, uSC wins SoS).

Guess they'd have a chance to upset IU and make an even bigger mess

Interesting

Tulane, UNT and USF are all favored to win out.

All 3 will finish with 1 loss in the AAC.

The first tiebreak is H2H which nobody has over the other two. The second is committee rankings, which will be USF, so USF is in

The tiebreak between Tulane and UNT is basically (a) did the committee rank either (presumably no), then (b) go to the average of four metrics.

Connolly SP+, SportSource TR116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.

I can't find the second one anywhere, and the average of the other 3 is really close

SP+ Tulane 62 UNT 27
ESPN SOR Tulane 24 UNT 31
KPI Tulane 18 UNT 22

So Tulane is ahead in 2/3 but far enough behind in SP+ that their average is lower. And I have no idea what the fouth says!

Kind of funny in the second year there are several relevant teams not ranked. In addition to those smu, Duke JMu.

To be clear, this would be moot if the committee decides to rank either Tulane or UNT

Neither is ranked right now, but Tulane is 26 in the AP and UNT is 28th

Also, randomly, how much tougher did Wazzu's schedule turn out to be than we thought?

They play San Diego State (potential MWC champ), North Texas (potential AAC champ), JMU (likely Sun Belt champ), Ole Miss (likely playoff team), Virginia (potential ACC champ), Toledo (potential MAC champ) and (lol) Oregon State - guaranteed to at least tie for the Pac-12 champ!

They're only 4-5 but beat Toledo and SDSU soundly, and lost @ Ole Miss and @ UVA by a combined 5 points.

OU would have h2h over MICH so I would think they get left out or else it starts a chain reaction of transitive h2h issues. B1G would likely get the two championship game participants: sounds like IU and USC from your other post? And OSU gets in at 11-1.

ND gets a huge resume boost from beating a playoff team in USC. Is it enough to overcome UGA who would have a win over 2 playoff teams in GT and Ole Miss?

I still think the SEC gets 6 teams in this scenario but ND vs the 6th SEC team seems razor thin

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You aren’t wrong. I basically had to come up with their doomsday scenario to put their selection in danger. But they are 99% dead with 3 losses.

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So you put USC in and keep ND out even though ND won h2h? Can't see the committee ever doing that when you factor in the "ND bonus". Can't see them keeping the B1GCG loser out at 10-2 tho either, so the 6th SEC team has to stay home, and then we're back to the first post. What a mess that would be.

Ya I think they give the conference championship loser “immunity” because they will never want to create the scenario where teams will be punished for playing that extra game. I think the conference honchos would have a real problem with that.

You may be right with ND getting in over the 6th SEC team here. Maybe they would move UGA over OU in this scenario. OU would have a win over Bama but no other playoff teams. That would be awful if OU was left out at 10-2 with their schedule though

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Right now they are 9th

5th conf champ will get the 12th spot

So in order to be out three teams have to jump them

Texas, OU and GT would all obviously jump them if they win out, although BOTH Texas and GT winning out would mean that UGA drops below them. So that's 2 at most

if 11-1 BYU beats 11-1 Tech in the B12 final, I also don't think Tech drops past them, so that's a third shot

10-2 Michigan would jump them as well - two road losses to ranked teams and a win that blows all of ND's wins put together out of the water so that's a fourth shot

10-2 Vandy stacks up very favorably, but you have to assume the committee screws Vandy in favor of ND

Then, I think people are underrating the scenario where 2 of those 4 things happen, and then Miami wins out and is 1 spot behind ND. They almost have to invoke the H2H as the tiebreaker then, and I think ND gets dropped at the buzzer. Crazy enough, it's probably the USF win that makes the difference

Say Texas, OU and Miami win out, and Utah Vandy and BYU drop another game along the way.

1 OSU 12-0
2 Indiana 12-0
3 Texas Tech 11-1
4 Texas A&M 11-1
5 Oregon 11-1
6 Ole Miss 11-1
7 Texas 10-2
8 Alabama 10-2
9 Georgia 10-2
10 Oklahoma 10-2
11 Notre Dame 10-2
12 Miami 10-2

I think they flip Miami and ND, and then the ACC champ is 12

It wouldn't happen all at once either - if OU and Texas win this weekend, both are jumping ND and UGA and Bama aren't falling past ND. So you'd see it coming way ahead of time

Michigan would be a crazy one - their overall resume top to bottom would be a playoff resume at 10-2, but it would be a WILD jump in the last week

They might be ranked something like 15th or 16th going into the last weekend against Ohio State

I hope Duke loses this weekend. Having them in contention is such a blight

Hope UGA beats the doors off of Texas and gets rid of them

Hope Tech and BYU and Utah win to keep B12's chances of multiple bids afloat

Hope USF wins to keep the best G5 team in the hunt so we might actually get a decent game from their representative in the playoffs

Hope Pitt wins just to get rid of ND

Hope Ole Miss wins because I want LANE in the playoffs

OSU losing to UCLA would be amazing, and combined with Michigan winning would jack up the stakes to a billion for that final game

Bama beating OU makes the next three games (Bama @ Auburn, OU vs Mizzou and LSU) meaningless. OU beating Bama woudl ratchet up the stakes in those games to a billion as well. Plus I think OU deserves a break for how tough their slate is. (Did you notice that Ole Miss and ATM's SEC opponents have a combined record of like 2-50 or something?)

I'm rooting for North Texas State university.

So the SEC gets the top rankings based on wins over the SEC.

My name is Lawrence Mizzi, and I am a seasoned sports analyst and oddsmaker with a proven track record at several of Europe's leading betting corporations. For years, I was on the other side of the counter, setting the lines and understanding the intricate mechanics of the sports betting market. Now, I leverage that invaluable insider experience and my extensive network within the sports industry to provide premium, professional advisory services. My specialization lies in soccer and American sports, where my deep analytical approach uncovers value and opportunity that others miss. My mission is straightforward: to transform my expertise into a tangible financial advantage for my clients. I provide them with the high-quality, data-driven information necessary to make informed decisions and achieve sustained success.

Make sure to check out my website where I drop a free pick every single day. Sometimes you can even score a 100% free lock - that's your ticket to risk-free money!

v i c t o r y p i c k s . e u

On Friday I'm handing out a 100% locked-in, guaranteed winner for a college basketball game (NCAAB) to anyone who wants it. Here's all you gotta do:

1.Hit me up with a message.

2.Put "FIX" in the subject line. That's it. I'll send you the play. This thing is a cash machine. A quick heads-up for my regulars: You guys get first shot at this. Get your bigger bets in early before the sportsbooks slash the limits on this game.

Get on it!

You are leaving out the group of 5 champ here who would be 12th and then presumably ACC gets 11th. This is similar to the scenario I presented which I was discussing at work where ND technically doesnt control its own destiny which REALLY riles up ND fans lol

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Always nice to meet someone enjoying college football for the first time

Skeptical Michigan passes ND. Especially with usc as common opponent.

Sec deserves the credit they get. But teams like Texas tech and Utah are drawing live to win if they get in.

My name is Lawrence Mizzi, and I am a seasoned sports analyst and oddsmaker with a proven track record at several of Europe's leading betting corporations. For years, I was on the other side of the counter, setting the lines and understanding the intricate mechanics of the sports betting market. Now, I leverage that invaluable insider experience and my extensive network within the sports industry to provide premium, professional advisory services. My specialization lies in soccer and American sports, where my deep analytical approach uncovers value and opportunity that others miss. My mission is straightforward: to transform my expertise into a tangible financial advantage for my clients. I provide them with the high-quality, data-driven information necessary to make informed decisions and achieve sustained success.

Make sure to check out my website where I drop a free pick every single day. Sometimes you can even score a 100% free lock - that's your ticket to risk-free money!

v i c t o r y p i c k s . e u

On Friday I'm handing out a 100% locked-in, guaranteed winner for a college basketball game (NCAAB) to anyone who wants it. Here's all you gotta do:

1.Hit me up with a message.

2.Put "FIX" in the subject line. That's it. I'll send you the play. This thing is a cash machine. A quick heads-up for my regulars: You guys get first shot at this. Get your bigger bets in early before the sportsbooks slash the limits on this game.

Get on it!

Yeah, it's nuts. For 12 years aggy fans have been telling us what a grind the SEC is. Then last year they said Texas was gifted an easy schedule. You want to see an easy SEC schedule?

They play the 5,9,10,11,13,14,15 and 16th best teams of the SEC.
Florida on the other hand had to play 1,3,4,5,8,12,13

This should sort itself out a little bit next year with the 9 game schedule and rotation of playing the three rivals and all the other schools home and away over a 4 year period.

Texas will play Georgia for the 4th time since A&M joined the SEC this weekend.
A&M has played them once since they joined.

Texas Tech is one million percent in at 11-2 unless they somehow lose the B12CG game by 40 or something

Utah is in fantastic shape if they win out as well.

They're 13th. They need to get to 10th because 11 and 12 will go to the ACC / AAC champs

80% to jump BYU
81% to jump OU
88% to jump UT (I'm assuming they are ahead of 9-3 UT)
23% to jump ND
7% to jump Oregon (assuming they are behind 10-2 Oregon)
4% to jump Ole Miss (assuming they are behind 10-2 Ole Miss)
10% to jump UGA

So they're 46% to jump 3 teams 22% to jump 4 and 4% to jump 5+, so 72% to jump 3+ teams and get the last spot

Then, who could they lose ground to? They close with @ Baylor, v K-State @ Kansas, so not terrible but not moving the needle much. Cincy and ASU are their two ranked wins, and they're not gonna get any more, so they need those teams to stay ranked. Cincy / BYU is massive for them, will push BYU down and keep Cincy up. Vandy could jump them too

Then consider, in the scenarios where Oregon has fallen, that means USC is surging up behind them hard, Michigan could also jump them, GT could jump them (although we're already counting 1 ACC team so we only care about GT winning out then losing in the ACCG).

I still think Miami's resume will look better and better as they put more distance between themselves and those losses

That said, 10-2 Oregon and 10-2 Ole Miss could also both wind up with zero top-25 wins, and if Cincy and ASU stay ranked 10-2 Utah could have two. So jumping those teams is not impossible either. Imagine if OM gets beat soundly by Florida this weekend and their only ranked win of OU finishes 8-4?

Yeah, and Florida plays Miami, USF and FSU out of conference on top of that. An absolutely insane schedule.

That’s insane that 2 SEC schools have only played once in what 13 yrs?

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I’m not sure this is possible but Utah,Mich, ND, USC, Miami all at 10-2 with no conference championship game appearances would be a fascinating debate with 2 getting in and 3 being left out

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