NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
its really hard to believe the SEC refs arent conspiring to get as many teams in the playoffs as possible. Every single close game conveniently goes in the favor of the team who has a shot the the CFP, Auburn is 1-6 in conference with 5 of the losses by one possession and the other loss being a 10 pt loss to UGA and they have gotten objectively screwed by the refs in well over half of those games. If anybody watched the Auburn vs OU or Auburn vs UGA games they would know exactly what I'm talking about.
its really hard to believe the SEC refs arent conspiring to get as many teams in the playoffs as possible. Every single close game conveniently goes in the favor of the team who has a shot the the CFP, Auburn is 1-6 in conference with 5 of the losses by one possession and the other loss being a 10 pt loss to UGA and they have gotten objectively screwed by the refs in well over
Lol, such a clown take, albeit expected
Sent from my motorola razr ultra 2025 using Tapatalk
I don't think you guys are appreciating how absolutely insanely fortunate the SEC has run this year
Florida, Auburn, UK, Miss St, USCe and Arkansas are a combined 1-28 against the rest of the SEC. And a huge % of those games were 1 score losses where they were winning in the 4th quarter.
That's just unbelievable.
If those teams are merely 5-24 or something, we are looking at like 3 SEC teams in the playoffs.
Bama may get a third loss in sec champ game.
They still have one of the top couple wins of playoff contenders.
I don't think you guys are appreciating how absolutely insanely fortunate the SEC has run this yearFlorida, Auburn, UK, Miss St, USCe and Arkansas are a combined 1-28 against the rest of the SEC. And a huge % of those games were 1 score losses where they were winning in the 4th quarter.That's just unbelievable. If those teams are merely 5-24 or something, we are looking at like
Don't jinx it...
Your extrapolation is invalid. Ok I'm gonna try this again. The reason the 4 team playoff wasn't a good solution is becuz it forced the committee to basically arbitrary choose between 1 loss programs. So you have ridiculous outcomes where one of the greatest teams of all time, 2015 Ohio State, gets left out. Or 2014 where Ohio State just randomly jumps TCU cuz TV ratings.
Except that they will have to add some 3 loss teams to get to 16 teams, so the same problem.
Just like 32 teams in the NCAA basketball was more than enough to prevent controversy, as was 64, and whatever they are at now.
I don't think you guys are appreciating how absolutely insanely fortunate the SEC has run this yearFlorida, Auburn, UK, Miss St, USCe and Arkansas are a combined 1-28 against the rest of the SEC. And a huge % of those games were 1 score losses where they were winning in the 4th quarter.That's just unbelievable. If those teams are merely 5-24 or something, we are looking at like
Isn't that polarization the expected product of NIL? A team like Kentucky football can no longer grab some competitve players at a modest expense?
Isn't that polarization the expected product of NIL? A team like Kentucky football can no longer grab some competitve players at a modest expense?
Um no. That list didn't include freaking Vanderbilt. Additionally, Indiana is currently a top 2 team. NIL has made it so the Bamas of the world can't stash 5*s waiting to play them until their junior year.
"Opponents' conference records" in the ACC is insane
UVA opponents 23-29
GT opp 22-31
Miami 23-29
SMU 22-33
Pitt 21-33
I don't understand why the consensus seems to be that Duke is dead.
UVA < VT
Pitt > GT
Miami > Pitt
SMU lose at least 1 to Lou or @ Cal
You'd have a 5 or 6 way tie at 6-2 and I think Duke actually wins that tiebreaker? There would be no h2h, and no mutuals between all the teams, and Duke has the best record of opponents
Miami is in rough shape. If they win out, they hand Pitt a second loss. If GT beats Pitt, GT is in and Pitt is out.
But they lose the tiebreak to both UVA and SMU as well as (importantly) a 3 way tiebreak with UVA AND SMU.
If Pitt beats GT, those 3 now have 2 losses. So they need either UVA to lose and/or SMU to lose 1 or 2 and then hope to win a 3 or 4 (or 5 or 6) team tiebreak which will come down to opponent records, and they are within a razor's margin
3 way tie with UVA GT and SMU is straightforward.
No h2h. All 3 played Wake. GT won and UVA and SMU both lost to Wake, so GT is in.
UVA opponents are 22-34 (currently 22-31, then VT, Cal and Louisville all pick up a loss) in this case, and SMU's are 22-35 (currently 22-33 plus two losses)
So it just comes down to the other games between mutual teams
UVA's unique teams are
FSU
UNC
Duke
VT
SMU's are:
Cuse
Clemson
Miami
BC
Clemson is done, BC and Cuse play each other so that's 1-1 and Miami has 2.7 expected wins
UNC-Duke is 1-1, VT in this scenario is 0-1, and between FSU, Duke and UNC there's also 2.7 expected wins
lol, so this goes insanely to the wire
3 way tie with UVA Pitt and SMU:
UVA and SMU beat Louisville, Pitt lost to Louisville, so Pitt is out
its really hard to believe the SEC refs arent conspiring to get as many teams in the playoffs as possible. Every single close game conveniently goes in the favor of the team who has a shot the the CFP, Auburn is 1-6 in conference with 5 of the losses by one possession and the other loss being a 10 pt loss to UGA and they have gotten objectively screwed by the refs in well over
If this was true then the refs would called more than 1 penalty on Georgia on Saturday. Georgia can afford a loss and still be in, Texas has around a 10% chance now with the loss.
Smu vs James Madison conference champ is interesting. Market thinks smu misses some amount of the time?
I think smu is a lock.
Committee will probably have neither ranked and just north Texas so we'll have no hint.
TUESDAY
7:00:00 PM Akron 3.5
7:00:00 PM Bowling Green -3.5
7:00:00 PM Massachusetts 32.5
7:00:00 PM Ohio -32.5
7:00:00 PM Western Michigan -5.5
7:00:00 PM Northern Illinois 6.5
WEDNESDAY
7:00:00 PM Miami (OH) 2.5
7:00:00 PM Buffalo -1.5
7:00:00 PM Central Michigan -8
7:00:00 PM Kent 8.5
THURSDAY
7:30:00 PM Louisiana-Lafayette 3
7:30:00 PM Arkansas State -2.5
FRIDAY
8:00:00 PM Florida State -4.5
8:00:00 PM North Carolina State 5
10:30:00 PM Hawaii 3.5
10:30:00 PM UNLV -3
The MWC is a six way race right now, with SDSU alone in first and five teams tied with 2 losses. The winner of this game stays alive, the loser is dead.
SATURDAY
12:00:00 PM Tulsa 11
12:00:00 PM Army -9.5
12:00:00 PM Delaware 18
12:00:00 PM Wake Forest -17.5
12:00:00 PM Missouri 9.5
12:00:00 PM Oklahoma -8.5
Even with wins over Tennessee, Alabama and Michigan, the logjam is probably too big for any 9-3 team to make it this year. So OU has to win at home vs Mizzou and LSU to make the playoffs.
12:00:00 PM Kansas 4.5
12:00:00 PM Iowa State -4
12:00:00 PM Louisville 3.5
12:00:00 PM SMU -3
The ACC has four teams tied with 1-loss and Miami and Duke sitting back with 2. SMU (featuring 2 losses to B12 teams) has a chance to appear in the CCG for the second consecutive year if they can win out vs Louisville and Cal
12:00:00 PM Miami -16.5
12:00:00 PM Virginia Tech 17.5
The 3, 4, 5 and 6 way tiebreaks go all the way to the wire. Miami is still live if they win out. They also have a shot at making the playoffs as the final at-large team, but will need some help.
12:00:00 PM Minnesota 5
12:00:00 PM Northwestern -4.5
12:00:00 PM Rutgers 30.5
12:00:00 PM Ohio State -30.5
12:45:00 PM UNC Charlotte 45.5
12:45:00 PM Georgia -44.5
1:00:00 PM Old Dominion -12.5
1:00:00 PM Georgia Southern 12.5
1:00:00 PM Washington State 13.5
1:00:00 PM James Madison -13.5
Fun fact! There is a chance that Wazzu plays EIGHT games against conference champions. JMU, SDSU, UNT, Ole Miss, UVA, Toledo and technically Oregon State twice! AAC teams (and SDSU) are certainly rooting for the Cougs here.
1:00:00 PM Baylor 6.5
1:00:00 PM Arizona -6.5
2:00:00 PM Nevada 6.5
2:00:00 PM Wyoming -6.5
2:00:00 PM Missouri State 6.5
2:00:00 PM Kennesaw State -6.5
2:00:00 PM Ball State 27.5
2:00:00 PM Toledo -27
2:30:00 PM Marshall -3.5
2:30:00 PM Appalachian State 3.5
3:00:00 PM South Florida -20.5
3:00:00 PM UAB 21
3:00:00 PM UConn -7.5
3:00:00 PM Florida Atlantic 7.5
3:00:00 PM Liberty 1.5
3:00:00 PM Louisiana Tech -1.5
3:00:00 PM Sam Houston 7
3:00:00 PM Middle Tenn. St -6.5
3:00:00 PM New Mexico State 3.5
3:00:00 PM UTEP -3
3:30:00 PM Southern Miss -2.5
3:30:00 PM South Alabama 3
3:30:00 PM East Carolina -2.5
3:30:00 PM UTSA 2.5
Four teams are tied with 1-loss in the AAC. ECU is likely last in line, and will have to hope that at least 2/3 of the others lose. JMU is certainly in their corner, that's the scenario that they need.
3:30:00 PM Jacksonville State 1
3:30:00 PM Florida International 1.5
3:30:00 PM Arkansas 10.5
3:30:00 PM Texas -10
I am of the opinion that Texas is basically dead (same logic as OU, but worse). However, if a miracle is to be had, it would start here with a convincing win over Arkansas.
3:30:00 PM Kentucky 10
3:30:00 PM Vanderbilt -9.5
Vanderbilt needs to win out vs UK and @ Tennessee and hope that either the committee is kind to them, or there's chaos ahead of them.
3:30:00 PM Duke -6.5
3:30:00 PM North Carolina 6.5
I am pretty sure Duke is still live for the ACCCG and would go in the event of a 5 or 6 way tie for first. Also, I think that Miami needs Duke to lose. Somebody did some other calcs and claims that Miami needs DUke to win this game and lose to Wake, but I don't think that's right.
3:30:00 PM Syracuse 35.5
3:30:00 PM Notre Dame -34.5
3:30:00 PM Michigan State 16.5
3:30:00 PM Iowa -16.5
3:30:00 PM USC 9.5
3:30:00 PM Oregon -9.5
The B1G's version of OU-Alabama. If Oregon wins out, they are in and USC is out. If USC wins, they could theoretically both make it, and theoretically could both miss, but probably USC is in and Oregon is out.
3:45:00 PM Tulane -7.5
3:45:00 PM Temple 8.5
Tulane tries to hold serve here and win their way in to the AACCG
4:00:00 PM Georgia State 11.5
4:00:00 PM Troy -11.5
4:00:00 PM TCU 2.5
4:00:00 PM Houston -2.5
4:00:00 PM Kansas State 17.5
4:00:00 PM Utah -16.5
Utah has absolutely been dump-trucking everybody in their path, and the committee is taking notice. They're squarely on the bubble, currently behind ND, BYU and ahead of Miami and Vanderbilt. The big question is where they'd stack up against 10-2 Oregon and/or 10-2 Ole Miss
4:00:00 PM Oklahoma State 14.5
4:00:00 PM Central Florida -14.5
4:00:00 PM Michigan -13.5
4:00:00 PM Maryland 14
Michigan escaped last week at Wrigley Field, and has one more game before the huge showdown @ OSU. They're probably in if they win there, but a sizable win here certainly wouldn't hurt. Maryland has lost six in a row.
4:15:00 PM Coastal Carolina 23.5
4:15:00 PM South Carolina -23.5
5:00:00 PM Louisiana-Monroe 19.5
5:00:00 PM Texas State -18.5
7:00:00 PM New Mexico -2.5
7:00:00 PM Air Force 3
7:00:00 PM Colorado State 16.5
7:00:00 PM Boise State -16.5
7:00:00 PM Pittsburgh 3
7:00:00 PM Georgia Tech -2.5
Two of the one-loss ACC teams face each other here. Pitt has been on fire until getting smoked by ND, while GT has been living extremely dangerously. GT is a lock for the title game with a win, and Pitt is likely in as well. Both are still technically live with a loss, but on life support. I believe Miami needs Pitt to win.
7:00:00 PM Nebraska 9.5
7:00:00 PM Penn State -8.5
7:30:00 PM North Texas -17.5
7:30:00 PM Rice 18.5
UNT will be ranked this week, and is a lock for the playoff if they win here, vs Temple and in the AACCG
7:30:00 PM Tennessee -3.5
7:30:00 PM Florida 3.5
Tennessee is dead, but Vandy, Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama are all rooting for them to win here and stay ranked.
7:30:00 PM California -2.5
7:30:00 PM Stanford 3
Hey, it's the big game! A classic Atlantic Coast Matchup between two teams in the San Francisco Bay Area
7:30:00 PM Illinois -9.5
7:30:00 PM Wisconsin 9.5
7:45:00 PM Western Kentucky 22.5
7:45:00 PM LSU -21.5
8:00:00 PM Arizona State -7.5
8:00:00 PM Colorado 7.5
8:00:00 PM BYU -2.5
8:00:00 PM Cincinnati 2.5
I haven't crunched the B12 numbers yet, but I know that BYU will be heavily favored in their last game at home vs UCF. If they win here, they keep their playoff hopes alive even with another loss to TT. If they lose, they create a 5 way tie for 2nd place between BYU, Cincy, Utah, Houston and ASU.
10:30:00 PM Utah State 2.5
10:30:00 PM Fresno State -2.5
10:30:00 PM San Jose State 11.5
10:30:00 PM San Diego State -10.5
10:30:00 PM Washington -10.5
10:30:00 PM UCLA 10.5
A subtly important game, I think. With a win, UW would move to 8-3 and likely be ranked heading to their season ending matchup with Oregon. If Oregon ends up splitting, it'll be helpful for UW to be ranked. It's also marginally helpful for Michigan and OSU who also beat them.
Smu vs James Madison conference champ is interesting. Market thinks smu misses some amount of the time?
I think smu is a lock.
Committee will probably have neither ranked and just north Texas so we'll have no hint.
SMU is a lock over JMU, even if JMU might be ahead of them prior to that
They'd have wins over Miami, Clemson, Louisville and GT or UVA. Nothing on JMU's resume comes remotely close to that.
Two of their losses are by the narrowest margins, and all three of their losses are also to teams better than anyone JMU has beaten
Conveniently, JMU also played Louisville and lost by two touchdowns.
This idea of Duke winning the ACC aligns with my goals and expectations; 2 G5 champs in the playoffs!
Currently SP+ has North Texas (the latest AAC favorite) 24 and James Madison 25, with Duke #57 and at an 8.5 point deficit. Beating UNC, Wake Forest, and...not-Miami seems unlikely to move the needle that much for an 8-5 team if the others keep winning. Particularly if they all stay in recent character; Duke wins back-and-forth games while the others "looks like I got dog**** on my shoe", right?
I guess the outcome doesn't matter to Miami, but it'd still be hilarious!
It took me a while to come around on JMU mainly because I thought their "opponent adjusted" defense ratings were overstated due to fluke gawdy numbers against Louisville. Gotta' admit, they've kept doing it even as their offense has greatly improved. OK, also because of Troy's fade.
Anyone other than Duke? Sure JMU's ****ed. Gotta' think their odds factor in an AAC implosion.
3:30:00 PM USC 9.53:30:00 PM Oregon -9.5The B1G's version of OU-Alabama. If Oregon wins out, they are in and USC is out. If USC wins, they could theoretically both make it, and theoretically could both miss, but probably USC is in and Oregon is out.4:00:00 PM Michigan -13.54:00:00 PM Maryland 14Michigan escaped last week at Wrigley Field, and has one more game before the huge s
The B1GCG scenarios are both super simple and super goofy.
IU (8-0), BYE, @Pur
Win and In
tOSU (7-0), RUT, @Mich
Win and In
USC (6-1), @Ore, UCLA
ORE (6-1), USC, @Wash
USC is a possible B1GCG play-in...or it's nothing if IU/tOSU win out (which is the most likely outcome). As you said, if nothing else, it's likely a CFP eliminator.
If tOSU loses to Michigan and Oregon wins out, they're in based on the tie breaker (strength of opp). If tOSU loses to Michigan and USC wins out, USC is in based on the tie break (common opp: Michigan).
MICH (6-1) @Mary, tOSU
If Michigan can upset Ohio State AND IU loses to Purdue AND Oregon and USC both lose one more game each, Michigan can make the B1GCG. If they tie either at one loss, they lose the Tiebreak to ORE (record vs. common opp: USC, assuming ORE wins this week) and to USC (h2h), so they need a ton of help. Hilariously enough, they would win the tiebreak against IU if IU loses next week (common opp: Purdue)
Lol fpi has duke 3.8% to win acc so like 8.5 percent to make the title game? I assume they program tiebreaks correctly. Take that as you will.
Ok, ran all the b12 tiebreakers.
Cincy and Houston are cooked.
Utah does way better than you'd think, they win a ton of the multi-ways
ASU also does pretty well, mostly since they are the only ones with a h2h win over tech
I got something like:
BYU 67%
Utah 21%
ASU 9%
Cincy 2%
Hou 1%
If tOSU loses to Michigan and Oregon wins out, they're in based on the tie breaker (strength of opp). If tOSU loses to Michigan and USC wins out, USC is in based on the tie break (common opp: Michigan).
)
For the first, I assume you mean "they" as in Oregon goes, in which case I agree
In the second, I think you have the wrong tiebreaker, but the right result.
Michigan, USC and OSU would all have 1 loss, Mich is 1-1, USC is 1-0, OSU is 0-1.
Because they did either (a) all play or (b) one defeated both or (c) one lost to both, you move on to the next tiebreaker, which is record of conference opponents, which USC will win.
Michigan loses a 3 way tiebreak involving USC or Oregon.
Michigan's only paths are:
-win out
-Oregon/USC loser loses again (totally plausible)
or
-win out
-Indiana loses to Purdue
This would create a 4 way tiebreak. Oregon/USC winner would be the first in based on opp records, then Michigan should be the second one in.
For the first, I assume you mean "they" as in Oregon goes, in which case I agreeIn the second, I think you have the wrong tiebreaker, but the right result.Michigan, USC and OSU would all have 1 loss, Mich is 1-1, USC is 1-0, OSU is 0-1.Because they did either (a) all play or (b) one defeated both or (c) one lost to both, you move on to the next tiebreaker, which is record of co
I've been super confident Michigan is gonna beat Ohio State all year. A big part of the reason why is our OL can pave in the running game and we have the best RB room in college football with Haynes and Marshall. Two all-American level backs. Well there's now a good chance both RBs will but out for The Game. Haynes is most likely out for the year (that's been an open secret) and Marshall is probably 50-50 for The Game after that shoulder injury vs jNW and even if he plays he probably won't be near 100%. All Michigan needed was one of those guys at near 100% and Ohio State would effectively be drawing dead in Ann Arbor. Now I'm rattled.
Anyways, assuming Michigan beats tOSU I would say there is no rational Michigan fan that wants to make the championship game since getting that 3rd loss probably means we're out given the logjam. This is another absurdity of the current system that needs to be fixed. Just making the championship game (at least for the SEC and B1G and certainly for the other conferences if we ever go to 16) should be an automatic qualifier for the playoffs. Have teams and entire fan bases basically not wanting to win a conference championship is insane.
I agree that the problem exists in your head, but it doesn't exist in reality. Nobody is going to care about a 17th ranked Virginia team getting "screwed".
To me this is identical to the current "problem" of some 2 loss teams not making the cut. Last year none of #9 - 12 lost by single digits in the 1st round away games, and I fully expect the same to happen this year because the impromptu home game is an enormous advantage* and for a team that's already the better one. Numbers 13 - 16 would logically do even worse. Why on earth do we need 4 more sleepers?
* I know it wouldn't make any sense, but giving the lower-seeded team the home game might actually make those games competitive. Maybe do a coinflip for it like in the Secretariat movie? Like why are we sentencing ourselves to those terrible games?
Yeah, that was in reference to Oregon.
In the second, I think you have the wrong tiebreaker, but the right result.
Michigan, USC and OSU would all have 1 loss, Mich is 1-1, USC is 1-0, OSU is 0-1.
Because they did either (a) all play or (b) one defeated both or (c) one lost to both, you move on to the next tiebreaker, which is record of conference opponents, which USC will win.
Michigan loses a 3 way tiebreak involving USC or Oregon.
For some reason I forgot that Michigan would also have 1 loss if they upset tOSU so I wasn't counting them in the USC tiebreaker. Both they and ORE are up bigly in the "Common opp win%" tally tho, so they'll handily win that if it gets there.
Michigan's only paths are:
-win out
-Oregon/USC loser loses again (totally plausible)
or
-win out
-Indiana loses to Purdue
This would create a 4 way tiebreak. Oregon/USC winner would be the first in based on opp records, then Michigan should be the second one in.
Kinda crazy that IU is actually got one of the clearer paths to being out of the game. Yeah, losing @Purdue isn't likely at all, but if they do, they'll be behind on a bunch of tie breakers (They lose to USC and Michigan should it get there). Their H2H win against Oregon saves them so that one might be settled while they're on a bye this weekend.
There's so many scenarios that could play out where I don't know who they take. Here's a couple
Scenario 1:
Texas Tech, BYU and Notre Dame win out, TT and BYU meet in the B12CG and BYU wins. There's 2 spots for the 3 of them.
12-1 BYU
11-2 Tech
10-2 ND
Is ND out?
Scenario 2:
USC wins out, Michigan wins out, Oregon finishes 10-2. Who in the world is in?
10-2 USC
10-2 Michigan
10-2 Oregon
And there's others.
Also re the Big 10 scenario would USC be out if they beat Oregon but lost a close game to Indiana in the B10CG? lol.
