NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
The thing is 10-2 in the Big 10 could be a shitty team.With 18 teams there are teams that could avoid OSU, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and USC in the same season, lose to Indiana and Iowa and beat 3 **** out of conference games and beat Purdue, Rutgers, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Maryland, UCLA and Northwestern in conference.Does that team deserve to get in the playoffs?Just l
10-2/10-3 championship game loser = great season for a B1G/SEC team is such a great approximation we shouldn't worry about once in a blue moon outlier cases where that is not true. That's certainly not a good reason to stick with a playoff system that will invariably have a committee getting to decide which great season team to include/exclude. That's a ridiculous outcome all rational college football fans should want to avoid. And there's an easy way to fix that inherently unfair, ridiculous system. Expand the playoffs so the committee doesn't get a chance to choose between great teams, but instead gets to choose which mediocre team to leave in/out. Is it still unfair? Sure, but NOBODY WILL CARE when a 9-3 Iowa team gets ****ed.
TTech maybe favored by 36 over Tulane?
I feel like you're the first person that's actually trying to argue honestly here. I can't fault you for challenging one of my core assumptions: That a 10-2 season within the B1G/SEC = a great season. I respect your opinion but I'm not backing off that assumption, so we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. What I can't stand from others is pretending a problem exists w
No, you're just refusing to acknowledge the obvious issue with your stance and drawing a meaningless line in the sand.
Unless it was Michigan, I'd bet you have no idea who the #13 team was in 2015 when Ohio State got "screwed" out of a title chance. You didn't care then because the system in place meant no one cared about them.
(Funny enough, Michigan was #14. Shout out Northwestern, the forgotten #13...).
Things happened between then and now that required the playoffs to be expanded (Mega conferences, NIL, etc. etc), so now you care about a potential 2 loss team getting left out where 2-loss teams could just outright get ****ed before.
Ok, fair enough, but the idea that going to:
is just wrong.
It might solve it if you assume every season plays out like this, but we're incapable of predicting the landscape changes that might happen in the next 10 years. The Pac12 might reform. Two G5 conferences might merge. GoldenBears wacky scheduling idea might come to pass. Who the **** knows.
In 10 years we might have 20+ teams with 2 losses and you'll suddenly be right back to arguing that the committee having to decide between this 2 loss team and that 2 loss team is a travesty!
Chair did explicitly say if Miami could get close to notre dame head to head would be "very important".
No, you're just refusing to acknowledge the obvious issue with your stance and drawing a meaningless line in the sand.Unless it was Michigan, I'd bet you have no idea who the #13 team was in 2015 when Ohio State got "screwed" out of a title chance. You didn't care then because the system in place meant no one cared about them.(Funny enough, Michigan was #14. Shout out Northwest
I have nothing else to say here. I seriously feel like I'm in the twilight zone. Can I at least get you to admit this much: A 16 team playoff system that potentially screws over a 9-3 Illinois team is better than a 12 team playoff system that potentially screws over a 10-2 Oregon team. That's all I want here. At this point I'm not trying to be right on the internet, I'm trying to restore my faith in humanity. I feel like there's not one college football fan in the universe that would disagree with that. And if you do disagree I'm not gonna assume you're stupid or ******ed. I'll assume that you're not real and the matrix is ****ing with me or you're some lizard alien troll being hiding underneath human skin.
I mean the committee is a group of highly fallible human beings. Don't we wanna mitigate their effect on the process. Wouldn't we all be better off as college football fans if the committee had no say on the playoff status of teams that had great seasons and was instead relegated to only deciding the fate of teams that had mediocre seasons. HOW IS THIS NOT PATENTLY OBVIOUS TO EVERYONE
Eventually you water down the regular season if you take 6-7 teams from both the SEC and B1G (which is how a 16 or 24 team playoff would play out).
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Eventually you water down the regular season if you take 6-7 teams from both the SEC and B1G (which is how a 16 or 24 team playoff would play out).
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If I recall, that was the original argument against the BCS way back when. "The regular season won't matter as much. Right now, every game matters!". Seems kinda silly to me, but I'm sure they had their reasons.
It feels like we've got a decent spot right now. The teams that are likely to get left out this year still lost 2 games. Don't want to stay home? Don't lose two games. Even if they were to other top teams, the point is to find the best team. If you've already played and lost to two teams in the top 10, that's probably not you...
Bigger issue is conference size/scheduling. Can't have 18 team conferences and 9 conference games without the chance a team will play all or almost all of the worst teams. It's a mathematical certainty at that point.
Chair did explicitly say if Miami could get close to notre dame head to head would be "very important".
I don't even have a dog in the race but it's a joke ND is ranked ahead of Miami. You can't go by the flavor of the week, the "eye test" or recency bias. Miami beat ND on the field, has the same record and a similar (honestly, better) resume. The seeding is a farce.
It’s all fun and games until Notre Dame bumps your team. This is outrageous!!! Hasn’t Bama suffered enough?
I have nothing else to say here. I seriously feel like I'm in the twilight zone. Can I at least get you to admit this much: A 16 team playoff system that potentially screws over a 9-3 Illinois team is better than a 12 team playoff system that potentially screws over a 10-2 Oregon team. That's all I want here. At this point I'm not trying to be right on the internet, I'm try
Since you’re allegedly not being ironic I’ll be explicit; No. Overall, it *might* be better, and it *might* be worse—but it would definitely suck in some ways so shove the “people aren’t being sincere” crap right inside the “idk man, maybe letting worse teams in won’t mean worse games” crap. My money’s on worse overall, obviously, but whatever.
There’s more to it than just not screwing a stumblebum 10-2 Oregon one year, there’s also the letting in 3 and probably 4 loss teams some years and the *best case* scenario is those teams get slaughtered in a snoozefest while the worst case is it’s some stupid Ohio State or Alabama team that ****ed up repeatedly, gets a pass, and goes on a run and actually wins the damn thing. I see no reason to sentence ourselves to this bleak horrible future instead of telling #13 to “do better” a few times first. The only things that are really clear:
* there’ll be no going back
* I already don’t care about 10-2 Oregon whose best win will be 8-4 Washington.
I don't even have a dog in the race but it's a joke ND is ranked ahead of Miami. You can't go by the flavor of the week, the "eye test" or recency bias. Miami beat ND on the field, has the same record and a similar (honestly, better) resume. The seeding is a farce.
Both Sagarin’s SoS and Resume SP+ clearly favor Notre Dame. It’s just Miami lost 2 games to unranked opponents and most of your “can’t” list has been explicitly used by the committee for years. Not sure if they’ve formally taken a stance on flavor of the week.
Eventually you water down the regular season if you take 6-7 teams from both the SEC and B1G (which is how a 16 or 24 team playoff would play out).
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Eventually?
They are telling mediocre teams this instant It's okay if you lost the only two decent teams that you played.
10-2/10-3 championship game loser = great season for a B1G/SEC team is such a great approximation we shouldn't worry about once in a blue moon outlier cases where that is not true. That's certainly not a good reason to stick with a playoff system that will invariably have a committee getting to decide which great season team to include/exclude. That's a ridiculous outcome al
The fair sensible system consists of a draft, balanced conferences, pseudo-geographic divisions and a highly regulated regular season. The only problem is that it is some other sport.
Ok so projecting the rankings1 OSU 2 Indiana3 ATM4 UGA. It's possible UGA jumps over ATM. ATM's resume is not incredible, and UGA beat the doors off of texas, but I think it's still sort by losses5 Texas Tech - Certainly not jumping UGA on a day where UGA beat UT that badly and certainly not getting jumped by OM when OM struggled to beat UF and TT won by 5006 Ole Miss - if Oreg
Correctly predicted the top-14 (OU jumping ND but not Oregon, ND being ahead of Bama, Bama being ahead of BYU, Miami jumping idle Vandy)
Not shocked that they have Tulane ahead of JMU, but shocked that they have Tulane ahead of UNT. Means JMU is dead to ECU winning the AAC, which is what I thought anyway, but I thought that Tulane would jump them after winning the CCG.
Correctly predicted they'd add Missouri, Illinois and Houston.
Had ASU as the next team out, so not surprised they have them given JMU was left off.
Great news for the Big-12. If Houston wins out (26%) or ASU wins out (35%), that's another ranked win for Tech or Utah respectively. Tech has 3 (BYU, Utah and Houston) but Utah only has this one, so it's really critical for them.
BYU is 51% to win out.
BYU is 17% to lose 1 and make the B12CG.
They are 95% to play TT, and ~22% to win
.68 * .22 = 15%
They hare 51% * .78 = 40% to win out and lose to Tech again.
As it currently stands, they're the bubble team.
They need 2 of the following teams to lose just to be in BEFORE the CG loss:
Ole Miss (23%)
Oregon/USC loser (20%)
OU (46%)
ND (3%)
Bama (32%)
Michigan (84%)
which happens 71% of the time
But if they lose in the B12 title game, would they drop back behind 10-2 Oregon or Ole Miss? Would they get jumped by idle 10-2 Miami? Probably not idle 10-2 Utah. Not sure
I think their odds are at best ~50%, maybe worse.
That would make them ~35% to playoff at best
Alabama is obviously out if they lose to Auburn, but as it stands there is a small chance they win and get left out anyway
Michigan beating Ohio State would put Alabama as the first team out
BYU upsetting Texas Tech in a narrow CG probably bumps them out as well, as I doubt #5 Texas Tech drops past them
What if they beat Auburn but lose the SEC title game by 30 points? Would #11 Utah or #11 Miami surpass them? I don't think so, but it's possible. They'd have 3 ranked wins @ Georgia, vs Tennessee and vs Vandy (assming Vandy/UT winner stays ranked). In this case Mizzou loses to OU but might still be ranked at 8-4.
I'm really not sure about Oregon's chances at 10-2.
If they beat USC, they jump Ole Miss to #5. If they then lose to Washington, would they fall behind:
Ole Miss who beats Miss St? Obvoiusly yes. OM who loses? I think no?
OU who wins out obviously yes, OU who losess? I *thinK* no?
ND who wins out obviously yes, ND who loses, obviously no
Bama wins obviously yes, Bama loses to Auburn obviously no
BYU who loses reg then loses champ game? Obv no
10-2 Michigan, obviously yes, 9-3 Michigan obviously no
Then what about 10-2 Utah, Miami and Vandy?
If they would drop past all 3, that would mean they need 6 of the other 9 teams to lose, which is only 8%
If they drop past none of those 3, that would mean they need only 3 of the other 6 teams to lose, which is 45%
They'd have a ranked win vs USC, possibly another against Iowa if Iowa wins out and finishes 8-4, and a bunch of blowouts against garbage teams.
If they lose to USC and beat Washington, they now have an extra team to jump, and one fewer ranked win. Tough shape.
The fair sensible system consists of a draft, balanced conferences, pseudo-geographic divisions and a highly regulated regular season. The only problem is that it is some other sport.
Right. The real answer is create a system where a committee is not needed. No doubt. But as long as we have a committee I don't want them deciding which 10-2 team gets left out. I don't want them having that kind of power. Let them fumble over which mediocre team to leave out.
This is all just dumb.
At the level of college football teams good enough to be in discussion for a 12-team playoff, there are anywhere from 7-9 games close enough to actually matter. The other 3-5 being total expected blowouts depending on schedule.
This just isn't a sport designed to sort out teams this far down the pecking order.
Alabama is obviously out if they lose to Auburn, but as it stands there is a small chance they win and get left out anywayMichigan beating Ohio State would put Alabama as the first team outBYU upsetting Texas Tech in a narrow CG probably bumps them out as well, as I doubt #5 Texas Tech drops past themWhat if they beat Auburn but lose the SEC title game by 30 points? Would #11 U
I think it will be interesting if BYU defeats cinci this weekend. Will that be enough to move them ahead of Bama? If not, you gotta think that BYU’s only path is thru a conference auto bid
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I think it will be interesting if BYU defeats cinci this weekend. Will that be enough to move them ahead of Bama? If not, you gotta think that BYU’s only path is thru a conference auto bid
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I don't think 11-1 BYU jumps 10-2 Bama at any point, so 11-2 BYU certainly wouldn't be ahead of them
BYU's at large equity isn't coming from them jumping teams who win, it's coming from teams losing.
Bama is only -5.5 in the Iron Bowl
OU is 46% to lose at least one game (9-3 OU vs 11-2 BYU is pretty interesting though, much less 10-2 Miami and 10-2 Utah)
The Oregon/USC winner has a very losable game (@ Washington / @ UCLA)
Ole Miss is 23% to lose to Mississippi State, which would give them a terrible loss
BYU probably only needs ONE of those (two if Michigan wins)
ah wow, I found an error in my calcs. The AAC championship is on campus of the higher seed, which I had been assuming would be UNT but now will certainly be Tulane if Tulane wins out. So, six point swing in that game. Think Tulane will still be a small dog, but yeah that puts them ~32% to get the bid
Tulane being ranked also gives Ole Miss another ranked win, which is huge
Record 34-37. Superlocks: 4-8
Here's the LOCKS of the week:
Virginia Tech +17.5 (-105)
USC +10.5 (-130)
Arkansas +8.5 (-108)
Georgia Tech -2.5 (-115)
BYU -2.5 (-115)
Penn State -6.5 (-147)
Michigan ML (-535)
$20 to win $927.47
Same as before with Michigan ML. Loss counts toward record but win doesn't. Super lock of the week has to be GT -2.5. I don't understand this line at all. Feels like GT should be favored by at least 7.5 over Pitt at home. This line is just way off. Pitt sux. GT has one of the best offenses in the game led by one of the best QBs in the game and they're at home. This could easily be a massacre. For those who like to print money this is where it's at. GT would probably beat ND and we all saw what ND did to Pitt last week.
Miami is rooting for:
Pitt huge for ACC hopes
Louisville v big for ACC hopes
UNC big for ACC hopes
Stanford for ACC hopes (important factor in multi way tiebreak against SMU)
Missouri
Syracuse
Kansas State
Maryland
Cincinnati
Arkansas and Kentucky just to be safe?
Florida, USF nice bonuses
Utah is rooting for:
Cincinnati huge (to force a tiebreak and also to stay ranked)
Missouri
Syracuse
Maryland
Arkansas and Kentucky just to be safe?
ASU (to stay ranked)
UCLA would be nice
Vandy is rooting for:
Missouri
Arkansas for sure
Cincinnati
Syracuse
Maryland
Kansas State
VT
All the same ACC stuff as Miami (Miami winning the ACC would free up a spot for Vandy since Miami is ahead of them anyway)
Colorado (to remove a ranked win from Utah)
Right. The real answer is create a system where a committee is not needed. No doubt. But as long as we have a committee I don't want them deciding which 10-2 team gets left out. I don't want them having that kind of power. Let them fumble over which mediocre team to leave out.
Whereas others feel actively changing the rules to deliberately put mediocre teams in the CFP is a worse issue.
