‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ potentially very bad for poker (players) in the US + STAY ON TOPIC!!

I think you're referring to Dina Titus My FAIR BET Act bill. If so, it been "Introduced," and Referred to the House Committee on Ways and Means. Tracking can be found: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-cong...

I only play cash, but when I ran the numbers my taxable income would increase less than 8% under the new rules and that’s without any tax avoidance shenanigans. Obviously I would prefer to pay less taxes, but it’s hardly a death blow for me. This change doesn’t kill the crushers, it kills the players around break even. Small winners have their entire profit taxed away and small losers who thought they had a free hobby now have a tax liability. I help start tables, but these are the guys really churning funds in the ecosystem.

Sports betting has a different type of ecosystem, but like you said the sites already have plenty of weapons to deal with the winners. The idea that the gambling industry wanted this provision doesn’t add up even before you consider the congressmen most beholden to the industry are leading the charge to get it reversed.

I read an article in the last edition of Cardplayer like a month ago that basically said the organization that oversees gaming(forget the name) feels pretty strongly it will get amended at some point next year. The wording was so confident I am not really worried about it for now

Hey I been playing poker for over 20 years now telling me to "move on" is victim blaming knock it off alright.

Lol no. CNN , Fox News , and MSNBC got sued in federal court and LOST. They were classified as entertainment. Main stream media is the problem. PenelopeCruz is "more right. They need to regulate it better. But the CEO is a billionare , shocker , so anything goes. You and your tone is the problem. Youve joined the hype hysteria started by the circus at MSM. Biden wanted to be president until he was 87. It isnt about the other side. Furthermore , I helped get online poker legal in my state. Theres also alot of people in America who dont care , arent smart enough 2 be a decent voter lol , and the MSM circus got alot of the baby boomer generation. The internet came out when they were like 50. Theyd much rather get spoon fed terrible news than learn how to research things without raising their blood pressure.

Politicians are very smart and some of them deserve to be there. Then you mix that with serious issues etc. The rich , especially the baby boomer rich people , can set this tone by not being professional on the news. Then special interests and CPAC money pours in.

Its government. Its tough work. Some people will be 300 pounds and never care bc theyre American. Or theyll be poor most of life in stress more etc.

We will be fine at the end of the day , and your ability to not be calm when saying this is fake and its you being an uniformed citizen like some rich people want you to be.

I know from helping legalize online poker in my state that the real way to learn government is to visit the government website and see what commitees each senator sits on. Then you get to see how well your senator is doing for YOUR state too. The weaker politicians go on main stream media to get CPAC money a ton. They have to run for reelection every couple years. Learning the commitees and their relevance is a much better way. CSPAN also shows government way more.

Poker players should not be divided on this issue lol at believing 73 year old uncle Joes Thanksgiving speech.
Trump isnt evil. Biden wasnt evil.

Thats all hysteria generated by $$$$$ and the media press first.

It cannot be changed until next year since it was passed this year. Hence the 28 pages long posts in here. There was a ton of outrage. This happened 4 months ago. My elected official said they got more gamblers calling in than people calling about Trump and medicaid. Lol. Several people have said it should get changed next year. The other thing is a very small percentage of people expect to win at sports betting or poker. Theyre not paying attention to their taxes on it. Only like 5% of sports bettors win at sports betting. In poker its maybe 15%. Thats not alot of people. And America is rich. Very rich. Government is not Americas strength here. Even our own news media got sued in federal court and lost. Yet that is where 80% of baby boomers get their news from. Some of its needed 2 get people 2 care but yeh. It will get regulated better soon. The Sean Hannitys on both sides should just take a pay cut and shift how they want to get people to care instead of shoving cpac money through the door. Microsofts CEO created USAfacts.org which is very popular. Its more so unbiased facts about government stats made in a user friendly way.

I think youre doom scrolling a little. I see why we we are concerned. I was thinking same thing. The projected revenue theyll make on this will only be 30 cents per every US citizen lol. Obviously like you said , its Political 2. The last thing you should do is do nothing about this. The United States democracy will end if the government can start doing these types of things hence the outrage. It was probably some junior new senator who wanted Trump Derangement sydrome CPAC money bc theyre in a welfare state or bad at their job. Other politicians are confident it will get reversed. The other thing Americans are terrible at is caring. And then when they care its like a sports match. Thats not reality. America is very rich. Government is not our strong point. We have 12 months to get it fixed as it wont take effect until when gamblers pay their 2027 taxes. D.C. is already fighting a losing battle on this 1. Theyve made a last minute ammendmum from a stanced rooted in Emotion. Federally judges are also taking heat for abortion being reversed and from the MAGA republicans. This has a good chance of being reversed.

Imagine some 79 year old federal judge imprisoning a 21 year old on taxes he didnt win on for 3 years on tax evasion lol. Its a case thats guaranteed to happen if this is not changed. And poker players can also tell girls you know how they feel lol. A pickup line perhaps. You have to actually make an effort though guys instead of calling 1 time next year.

You can make a difference. Online poker was legalized in my state and several others and online poker was never shut down in 14 years after Black Friday in 2011 so thats a win.

thanks for the other insights

I don't see how anybody could win at sports betting with the new tax law next year. The margins are too thin.

Not professionally.

Impossible!

I'm finished with Sports betting until this law gets repealed if ever.

I think that's the whole point. I think books just wanted a way to fight back against advantage gamblers and sharks. Another way to nerf ppl who simply take from their profit margin

Agree

This affects advantage players like Poker Pros and Sports Bets

I don't understand why the sports books really care, since they are making a ton of money if they set the lines correctly regardless of who wins.

I also don't see how online poker would be beatable, based on my past results and records. Usually, my wins would be quite high, but also my losses.

I know the BBB passed the house but was the gambling language removed or not?

No, it was added last min.

i forget the name, but whatever the official lobby of casinos is strongly and very publicly applauded the inclusion of that bill for the above stated reasons - it gets advantage players to self back off

Im not surprised at this rickroll, if this is actually true and not a conspiracy (which it totally could be). These casinos want to win, this a game of blood for them now.

Let's think about the kinds of gambling advertisements and sponsorships they've been rolling out in the last 1-2 years mainly trying to target a younger audience. These people want to win anyway possible, they couldn't care less if young people develop a gambling addiction. Why don't you see them advertising poker?

Its all about sportsbooks and slots... (all these celebrities promoting gambling... its basically on the same evil as child predation)

People seem to forget that gambling is for the uber rich, these companies like MGM and DraftKings want to manipulate vulnerable young minds to make them think that any1 can gamble.

It's always easy to target the most vulnerable, think about it, you want to win right, you have no honor or integrity (they think this is a card game like poker, but this is real life), this means they are the definition of evil, there is real evil out here and its right in front of you... (so many wolves in sheeps clothing)

It's trivially easy to beat almost all American sportsbooks which is why almost all of them limit users bets, often to only being able to bet under $10, at the slightest sign of intelligence.

Actually, Black-Scholes is not super difficult to beat either, it's a simplified model with various shortcomings. What quants do is usually somewhat more elaborate than that. But it's still widely employed, mostly because it's good enough and most people are stupid. Similar to poker/sportsbooks. And competition, if the market makers would give you something worse than Black-Scholes they would usually be eaten alive by the competition. In the case of the financial markets the market makers and the brokers are typically different entities unlike poker/sportsbooks. Hedge funds are typically also very beatable, if they are not it's usually because they do something shady but let's just leave it at that.

I agree with rickroll, it's certainly very conceivable that the casinos and sportsbooks would be behind this and to answer the question before, of why would they do this when they can make enough money anyway? The answer is corporate greed, it's the same answer of why there are now resort fees and parking fees and whatever other fees. The casinos wouldn't need to do this, however the execs need to present ever increasing quarterly revenues and their bonuses depend on it, that's why they come up with things like that. Obv it only works until the customers stay away, but that is usually only found out after the fact. As usual especially Americans tend to be very optimistic and they think they can get away with it until they can't.

We’ll run book doesn’t try to beat you. Similar to poker house is agnostic to who wins. The book wants the risk to be equal on both sides of the bet such that house takes all the vig and loser pays winner.

In short, you don’t need to beat the house. You need to be better than other side of the bet and house profits on volume. House is not like a hedge fund do much as they are the market maker.

Because the betting events are not random, team X is better than team Y. What you need to find is situations where the other bettors are shifting the odds such that market is mispriced.

next time you are confused, you should probably save yourself some embarrassment and keep your ignorant guesswork to yourself

sportsbooks are very easily beatable - their entire business is predicated on quickly identifying winners and limiting them while allowing the 99% who are just clicking buttons and thinking "mahomes is going to ball tonight"

it's precisely why the key to winning is logistic, about how you can get down wagers under the radar - not how you decide which wagers to make

even so, if you look at the publicly available info, most sportsbooks in the usa lose money on regular wagers after marketing and operating costs (those kevin hart commercials are very pricey) - where they make their money is on parlays - where they have a crazy double digit edge - that's why every ad you see is pushing parlays

@ Niedam and FWWM

All I heard was a bunch of poker player ego table talk jargon, if you guys are so street smart why aren't you both millionaires yet?

The point im trying to make is that blackjack and sportsbetting both fall into the niche category in the sense that only the top 5% or whatever can win, which means not a lot of people when you compare that to poker where anyone can realistically be a 5bb/100 winner micro stakes or $25/hr winner at 1/3 at the casino.

More people can beat poker/the rake at the casino then they can beat sportsbetting/blackjack, and im still struggling to understand why these casinos want to sponsor all these young youtube degens/famous celebrities to advertise sportsbetting/slots/online gaming etc.

You really don't understand how simple it is to beat sports. In any state that that has a reasonable amount of books there will exist at any given time 20+ arbitrage opportunities.

I just spent literally 3 seconds looking a free odds screen and saw that the consensus is that Central Michigan vs Loyola basketball game tonight is under 140 points. However BetRivers has the line at 141.5 which is approximately a 3% edge.

Little brain power is used to win like this. MUCH easier than making $25/hr at poker.

no, poker is a zero sum game

take away the 50-60bb/100 for the rake and we're already starting off everyone in the negative

some can play well enough to be profitable but that is finite - there can only be so many winners

every single raked poker session requires at least one loser and usually quite a few - ie as we all know, if you took the best 9 players in the world and sat them down at a table that only a small handful will have a winning session

this is not true for sportsbetting where 9 people can walk into a sportsbook and all leave winners

DK and MGM are clown bookmakers. Their lines are not sharp at all. But they just limit people do dust, often times even long term losers.