NCAA Football 2025
Not sure who will win this year, hopefully Arch goes nuts and UT can kick the door in after making the quarterfinals the
So in Scenario 4: Miami has a chance to jump ND with neither playing a game. I’m here for it but I would be in shock with that outcome.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Why not Notre Dame 8th? Oklahoma just edged the undead mummy of LSU and once again showed they have no offense. Plus their two best wins just looked like crap.
Sure would solve a lot of the committee’s problems…
Hmm…where do I bet this?
If ND is 8 and Oklahoma is 9, ND is a lock to make the playoffs, so you can just bet ND YES everywhere
If you watch the show you can sometimes snipe bets on betmgm or bet365. Haven't noticed it other places.
Thanks, unregulated state but I’ll look around.
This is stating the obvious, but Utah is totally cooked.
They now have 0 top-25 wins (Cincy and ASU were both ranked at the time)
Their last 2 games were an absolute miracle @ K-State where they got run on for 500 yards, and a closer than you'd like it to be win over Kansas.
They're gonna get jumped by at least Vandy if not also Texas, they are done, which is a shame.
Sad, but those two losses epitomize Whittingham’s tenure. An inexplicable blowout, and an unfathomable avalanche of unforced errors & headscratching decisions.
That said, Scalley’s going to make him look like Bear Wilkinson. Worst succession plan since Ty Corbin replacing Jerry Sloan. Nobody but Saban & Meyer was clearly better the past twenty years. Wasn’t a drama queen clown show whore like Kiffin, Petrino, Kid Killer, et al, ad nauseam.
Probably a little too soft on discipline. This was the second time that season Clay had done this. Senior captain, pre-season All-American. Didn’t miss a down for this, never mind losing the C.
My best guess for tonight:
9 Notre Dame
10 Alabama
If Bama beat Auburn soundly, I think they would've jumped ND, but the got outgained and out ypp, and probably should've lost. Wouldn't be shocked to see them actually DROP, but staying at 10 is most likely.
"I will tell you that the debate between Alabama and Notre Dame the past three weeks has been one of the strongest debates we've had in the room for the past two years that I've been a member of the committee," CFP selection committee chair Hunter Yurachek, the athletic director at Arkansas, said on ESPN's rankings release show on Tuesday night. "Notre Dame went on the road, had a strong win at Stanford. But Alabama went on the road, in a rivalry game, and looked really good, especially in the first half."
??? bold... WTF
Based on committee guy sounds like bears prediction could come true if byu blown out.
I only watched the second half but bama looked horrific.
If they are really that close will bama really stay above with a loss?
They are down to first half eye test to try and justify their rankings. I know I sound like tin foil hat whackoo but they clearly know the teams they want and then reverse engineer the logic for the tv interview. Bama is locked in. BYU takes ND spot if they win. B1G/SEC/ESPN run the show and want the teams that bring the eyeballs.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The committee swapped Notre Dame and Alabama so that when BYU loses and is eliminated, Miami and Notre Dame will be next to each other. They say they only use head-to-head when all else is equal, and ND and Miami will be close enough that it will matter. Notre Dame is getting left out (unless you think they'll punish Bama for losing the title game).
The committee swapped Notre Dame and Alabama so that when BYU loses and is eliminated, Miami and Notre Dame will be next to each other. They say they only use head-to-head when all else is equal, and ND and Miami will be close enough that it will matter. Notre Dame is getting left out (unless you think they'll punish Bama for losing the title game).
You can bet BYU moneyline at +400 and Miami to make playoff at +650 and print money if you think that is whats happening
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I only watched the second half but bama looked horrific.
If they are really that close will bama really stay above with a loss?
They did look better in the first half, but not…that much better.
RB Jam Miller did have a first good show of the year…you might remember him leaving the field on crutches, but since we’re just evaluating the first half I guess that’s irrelevant.
Weird.
You can bet BYU moneyline at +400 and Miami to make playoff at +650 and print money if you think that is whats happening
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I wish this were the case but I still think ND gets in. Even though Miami should be in over them. ND's "impressive win" against Stanford, gmafb! Miami just destroyed Pitt.
I wish this were the case but I still think ND gets in. Even though Miami should be in over them. ND's "impressive win" against Stanford, gmafb! Miami just destroyed Pitt.
Its ND vs BYU for the last spot unless maybe Ty Simpson tears his ACL. I still think they will reference Tua or something and keep Bama in.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
"Bama looked GOOOOOD y'all." Can't make it up.
Alabama jumping ND based on this week's data is so obviously OBVIOUSLY preposterous.
I think that Alabama should've been ahead of ND in the first place, and I think the committee is humble enough to sort of think about what they've done, consult actual experts and revise bad decisions they've made in the past, but not humble enough to tell the truth and be like "yeah, you know we really sat on it for a while and realized we made a mistake and Bama > ND," so they have to pretend that they moved them based on this week's results which is obviously just a preposterous farce
I think they also might do stuff like this to jiggle around matchups in the final standings - i.e. if they can move one team one spot and go from three first round rematches to none, they would probably do it.
Revisiting the scenarios from yesterday:
BYU and Bama both win = 8%
BYU and Bama are in, ND and Miami are out. 100% certainty
Bama 100
ND 0
BYU 100
Miami 0
Bama and Texas Tech win = 37.7%
Bama is obviously 100% in (and likely rises ahead of UGA, though I don't know where the two of them land)
BYU is 100% out, and probably falls behind Miami
So the final rankings would look like:
9 Oklahoma 10 Notre Dame 11 Miami 12/13 BYU/Texas
Vegas thinks the committee will keep ND in, but I think there is a pretty good chance that they swap ND and Miami. I just don't see how you can possibly argue that ND's resume is SO SUPERIOR to Miami's that you should ignore H2H.
It's like a replay review where you don't have enough evidence either way, so you have to stick with with the result of the game played on the field.
Bama 100
ND 50
Miami 50
BYU 0
BYU and UGA win = 9.7%
BYU is 100% in, and probably jumps OU, ATM, Ole Miss and maybe Oregon
Three sub-scenarios:
A - Bama stays put, and ND and Miami are out regardless of how the committee decides to sort them
B - Bama falls 1 spot, staying ahead of Miami and creating a Miami-ND buffer, and now ND is back in, and Bama is the first one out
C - Bama falls 2 spots, so it's now 8. Oklahoma 9. ND 10. Miami. Same as above, would the committee then swap ND and Miami due to H2H?
I think this one depends a LOT on MOV.
If Bama loses on a walk-off FG like SMU did last year, I think we are probably in scenario A. I think if Bama loses 24-10 or something, we are in the zone of scenario B. If Miami loses 35-10, I think we are in scenario C.
Bama 45?
ND 50?
BYU 100
Miami 5?
UGA and Texas Tech win = 44.3%
BYU is 100% out
Three sub-scenarios:
A - Bama stays put, Miami jumps BYU, so it's 9. Bama 10. ND 11. Miami. The recurring theme of, "if BYU loses, will the committee swap jump Miami over BYU and swap adjacent Miami/ND?"
B - Bama falls 1 spot, moving ND up to 9 and creating the Miami-ND buffer. but Bama stays in. I think this is the most likely scenario
C - (if Bama gets blown out) Bama falls 2 spots, and Miami slides in. Do they rank ND 9 and Miami 10, or vice versa, who cares, they're both in.
Bama 75?
ND 95?
BYU 0
Miami 30?
Really appreciate the work you put in on this, GB.
Sooooo much more accurate and meaningful than the breathless rage bait talking heads on tv.
agree 100%
best explanations of all conference and playoff possibilities I've seen anywhere
Quick:
What team leads the nation in both offensive yards per game and points scored per game?
Spoiler
I do think ND should be out no matter what the more I think about it, and apparently Joel Klatt thinks they're out.
If TT and Georgia win then you'd think BYU drops at least a spot which creates a direct comparison between ND and Miami.
If TT and Bama win, it's basically the same thing as above.
If BYU wins then ND is just out period.
Maybe there is no path for ND.
I'm unsure how much faith in the committee I have to value h2h but maybe it's worth a bet on Miami to playoff.
And to answer the question who gets a bye in these scenarios I think it's actually simple?
If TT and Georgia win, current top 4 all get byes.
If one of Georgia or TT loses I think Oregon gets a bye.
Josh Pate thinks Bama will move up 5 spots to 4 if they beat UGA but says there's no way Bama is out if they lose. That's a pretty absurd take and I disagree that Bama could ever or should ever deserve to move 5 spots up. It's like everyone ignores their terrible loss to FSU.
If Bama and TT win I think Bama is 4 and UGA is 5.
Bama should be in unless they lose by 3 tds or something.
I guess I have less belief in the integrity of the committee/cfp system. Bama was moved up to 9 so that they could be insulated from BYU knocking them out by winning the Big 12 CCG. Several people predicted this on social media. The mistake the committee made was not foreseeing this issue 2 weeks ago or whenever OU beat Bama. Like GB said, it’s preposterous to move them up off anything that happened on the field vs Auburn.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Notre Dame odds down a bit and Miami up a bit
