NFL Survivor Picks
For those that do not know, in a survivor pool you pick a team who is going to win that week. If your team wins, you sta
I was scanning the Circa Survivor entries looking for the best future value going forward.This was the best entry I found: RPB4FUN (entry #2)He already played Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Dolphins, Vikings, Steelers, Bears, and Colts.I got his chance of winning out at 1 in 27.His other ticket is almost as good, the only difference is he picked Rams instead of Dolphins wk 4. Winni
Lol 11 team parlay at +2600
Circa Survivor update: FREEDOM_ROCKETS missed the Packers this week, and used Rams 7x and Chargers 2x with his 9 entries.
He can go with Bills this week all 9 entries, with Broncos available on 2 entries.
His current EV is about $120k.
RPB4FUN is out on entry #1 (Packers), but entry #2 is still alive (Rams).
His 9 live entries are all above average going forward.
It's actually better than $120k as that was his EV going into the week. So he should have got a 12% bump with Packers entries out.
I developed a model that estimates value for a given entry.
Circa Survivor week 10 update: 1,769 entries are live going into this week, or 9.5% of the starting field of 18,716.
Projected selection counts for this week:
Panthers: 656 37%
Broncos: 572 32%
Bills: 387 22%
Lions: 109 6%
Seahawks: 43 2%
Bears: 2 0.1%
Implied value per entry: $10,580. (this does not account for $1,000 entry fee)
Top 3 contestants, based on EV:
1. FREEDOM_ROCKETS $147,925 (9 entries live)
2. ITSTARTSWITHABET $91,233 (10 entries live)
3. PeeryBruce $79,770 (5 entries live)
Top 3 entries:
1. Sigil Slips $24,328 (entry #1)
2. BRT $23,079 (entry #4)
3. ChristineAndRon $22,689 (entry #1)
I'll take the under on Panthers p%
Circa Survivor Week 10 selection counts are in:
PANTHERS 490 27.7%
BRONCOS 429 24.3%
BILLS 261 14.8%
SEAHAWKS 261 14.8%
BEARS 168 9.5%
LIONS 90 5.1%
COLTS 13 0.7%
RAMS 13 0.7%
RAVENS 11 0.6%
BROWNS 9 0.5%
CHARGERS 9 0.5%
BUCS 8 0.5%
TEXANS 4 0.2%
JETS 2 0.1%
JAGUARS 1 0.1%
Rams moved to -6 today (about 70% win equity), but otherwise quite a few contrarian plays IMO.
Colts 13 picks leave them the most picked team so far; they are now available on only 23 entries.
Circa Survivor week 11 update: exactly 1,000 entries are live going into this week, or 5.3% of the starting field of 18,716. From last week 769 entries went out, or 43.5% of the field.
Current implied value per entry: $18,716. (this does not account for $1,000 entry fee)
FREEDOM_ROCKETS took a big hit last week, as 7 of his 9 entries are out. 4 entries had Panthers, and 3 entries had Bills. His 2 remaining entries had Broncos and are live. His EV dropped from $147,925 to $65,100.
ITSTARTSWITHABET had to sweat the Bears rallying down 10 in the 4th qtr against the Giants. All 10 of his entries had the Bears last week. He is the new leader at $204,765 EV counting all of his 10 entries.
ITSTARTSWITHABET is the last remaining contestant with all 10 entries live. THANKS DEREK is the next closest at 6 live entries.
Top 3 contestants, based on EV:
1. ITSTARTSWITHABET $204,765 (10 entries live)
2. THANKS DEREK $125,336 (6 entries live)
3. SAMMY SADIST ON OF $108,203 (5 entries live)
Top 3 entries:
1. FLICKAJJ $39,074 (entry #4). His entry includes Saints week 5 against the Giants, and Browns week 7 against the Dolphins.
2. JET WITH JON $38,718 (entry #1). He also had the Saints and Browns as above.
3. EMPTYNET $38,600 (entry #9).
900 down to 538 after yesterday's carnage.
Will be 49 left if Bears win. 510 if Eagles.
Mass extinction event. 900 entries down to 49, 95% gone in week 13a.
Entrants had to take an underdog of the 4 games to survive. 28 took the Bears, probably thinking that counting on an Eagles+Ravens loss was too much to ask for.
Contestants with multiple entries could take both sides, hoping for a slaughter and guaranteeing survival.
Bears was the best pick knowing that Eagles were going to be so heavily owned.
The other dogs weren't great picks, but they got there.
There were 13 entries going into the week with no favorites available. So they benefited from a bit of serendipity.
The 2 leading contestants:
1. ACCORSI, who staked all 4 of his remaining entries on underdogs, Bears x3 and Cowboys.;
2. Heater City, who took underdogs on 3 of his 4 entries. (Bears x2 and Bengals) He lost with Ravens.
Four contestants have 2 live entries including ITSTARTSWITHABET, the previous leader going into the week and who survived with Cowboys and Bengals from his 7 entries.
A total of 21 contestants with multiple entries going into the week survived, with 19 survivors staying on with a single entry. Of the 21 contestants with multiple entries going into the week, 6 survived with multiple entries going into week 13b on Sunday/Monday.
A total of 88 contestants with multiple entries will be saying sayanora, including;
-THANKS DEREK, sinking all 6 of his entries on favorites, Eagles x4 and Ravens x2;
-Browna, drawing the o-fer with the Eagles x2, Chiefs, and Ravens;
-PeeryBruce, who had previously appeared on the leaderboard and chose Eagles x3 and Ravens.
Implied value per entry jumped from $20,798 to $382,000.
That would be W.A.R.
The other no-show was Haik17, who had Eagles and all the dogs (except Packers) available.
Actually there were only 8 entries with no favorites available (including W.A.R.)
ACCORSI was the most notable of the group as none of his 4 live entries had any favorites available. He also did not have Packers available.
carnage.
11 left and one of them is on PHI tomorrow (sam soverel)
I was surprised Rams were taken on only 3 entries, when they were available on 8.
ACCORSI went out with 3 of 4 entries, only surviving with Dolphins.
ITSTARTSWITHABET and Heater City took Bucs on both of their entries and are out.
There are no remaining multiple entrants.
Dylan W had 2 picks and has Pats available against Jets wk 17. That's one example.
Actually Dylan W did not have Pats and Rams available on the same ticket.
Looking it over the non-Rams picks seem ok.
SUNTANBIRD had Rams available this week (80%) and Bengals (~ 70%) home to Cardinals available wk 17.
We're down to 10 in Circa survivor.
Here are the contestants, along with their remaining available teams:
[code]
Circa Alias entry AT AZ BF BL CA CH CL CN DL DN DT GB HU IN JK KC LC LR LV MI MN NE NG NJ NO PH PT SE SF TB TN WS
ACCORSI 4 AT AZ CA CL CN DL HU LV MN NG NJ NO PT SF TB TN WS
BRAD LEE 1 AT CA CL CN JK LV MI MN NG NJ NO PH PT SF TB TN WS
C3 PICKZ 2 AT AZ BF CA CL CN LV MI MN NG NJ NO PH SF TB TN WS
Caveman6470 3 AT CA CL CN DL LV MI MN NG NJ NO PH PT SF TB TN WS
DYLAN W 10 AT AZ CA CL LV MI MN NE NG NJ NO PH PT SF TB TN WS
GaryA 10 AT AZ CA CL CN JK KC LV MI MN NE NG NJ NO PH TB TN
JUICY KEWCHI 7 AT AZ CA CL DL JK LV MI MN NE NG NJ NO PH SF TN WS
KICK YOUR KNEES UP 1 AT CA CH CL CN DL HU JK LV MN NG NJ NO PH TB TN WS
PARTZ1 9 AT AZ CA CL CN JK LV MI MN NE NG NJ NO PH TB TN WS
REAL BRO 3 AT CA CL CN DL HU JK LV MI MN NG NJ NO PH PT TN WS
[/code]
Week 15's big favorites (HU, JK, PH, and SF) are generally available. HU and JK also look very good in week 18, and may be deferred until then. PH should be the majority pick as they are available for 9 of the contestants, although they also have future value in weeks 16 and 18. CH is available for KICK YOUR KNEES UP as a solid contrarian play.
In week 16, SF is available for 6 entries, and PH 9 entries. Possible contrarian picks for C3 PICKZ (BF), and those with HU (ACCORSI, KICK YOUR KNEES UP, REAL BRO). GaryA will almost certainly reserve KC for week 17a and take PH here.
Week 17a looks to be the key week. GaryA appears to be in a very advantageous spot as only he has KC available. DL (ACCORSI, Caveman6470 , JUICY KEWCHI, KICK YOUR KNEES UP, REAL BRO) projects to be a weak road favorite and will almost certainly be the most popular pick. BRAD LEE, C3 PICKZ, DYLAN W, and PARTZ1 only have the dogs (MN or WS) to choose from, but both teams are at home and could play a spoiler role similar to week 13a.
NE looks to be the biggest favorite in week 17b, and has been saved by 4 of the contestants (DYLAN W, GaryA, JUICY KEWCHI, and PARTZ1. CN is available for everyone except DYLAN W and JUICY KEWCHI. JK looks to be a big road favorite and is available for BRAD LEE, Gary A, JUICY KEWCHIM KICK YOUT KNEES UP, PARTZ1, and REAL BRO.
Week 18 is a bit too far out to accurately forecast, with some teams locking up playoff seedings, and other teams trying out new talent. With that in mind I suspect the biggest favorites in order: HU, JK, BF, PH, CN, DL, and AT. Contestants will likely reserve as many choices as possible, which I'm guessing will include AT and CN, and possibly JK, HU, and PH.
From what I see GaryA has to be the favorite to win it. He has a solid contrarian pick in 17a (KC), NE in week 17b, but may need to take JK in week 15 and go with a weaker pick like AT or CN in week 18.
C3 PICKZ also has a solid contrarian play with BF in week 16, and could be one of the few still standing if the popular picks SF and PH go down. Week 17a could be the biggest obstacle with only WS or MN available.
KICK YOUR KNEES UP has CH to counter the popular picks in week 15, and also has DL in week 17a and JK for week 18. Although week 15's favorites look strong, if they go down we might be looking at the winner of Circa Survivor with 4 weeks remaining.
Week 15 picks are in:
Jaguars the most popular pick, as 5 of the 6 had Jags available. REAL BRO could have gone Jags, but seemed to have made the correct value move taking Eagles, gaining about $150k in current value by avoiding the 50% pick.
KICK YOUR KNEES UP could have also avoided Jags and gone with Bears, but saves about $50k in current value with Jags. What is not accounted for is losing a chance to play Jags in week 17b (@ Colts) or week 18 (vs Titans). Bears have basically zero value after this week.
GaryA could have taken a stab with Bucs @ 71% against Falcons to save Jags for week 18, but avoided disaster. He can't wait until week 17a and Chiefs and will likely take Eagles in 16 @ Commanders.
Of the other Jags takers, BRAD LEE could have gone either with Eagles or 49ers and gained a bit in current value while keeping Jags for 17b/18. Same for JUICY KEWCHI. PARTZ1 saved Eagles for 16/18, as he does not have either Texans or 49ers.
Caveman6470 looks to be in good shape thru 17a, as he has Eagles for 16 and Cowboys for 17a. ACCORSI also sets up well for the next 3 weeks as he has Texans vs. Raiders in 16 and Cowboys in 17a.
DYLAN W also has Eagles next week, but will need to pick either Vikings or Commanders in 17a, as does C3 PICKZ. If DYLAN W gets past 17a he has Patriots in 17b.
I'm still favoring GaryA. REAL BRO moved up avoiding the Jags and I have him 2nd choice to win it.
