Name: (AUS) – Variance, Mental Game (Tilt) & Victory: My Poker Journey
1st post: Introduction
Well every Blog should start with a hey right? So hey you the reader how you doin? (yes this is a
Weekly Update – Rolling Into Christmas
It’s been a busy lead‑up to Christmas with a mix of live poker, online volume, and a surprising return to a format I probably should’ve been playing more of all along. Let’s dive in.
🎄 Xmas Cup – Live Poker Recap
This time of year is chaos for me — work is still rolling, I had family Christmas on Saturday, and I’ve got tickets to the Adelaide Oval Test (go Aussies). That meant I only had one real shot at the Xmas Cup: Thursday night’s MLR flight.
We finished five spots off the money and a day 2. The final hand was a 6bb jam with 55 into KQ, and that was that. Found a double early, then went completely card dead and couldn’t build anything meaningful.
Even so, what a year for live poker. Truly blessed.
• 2× Main Event runs at Stacked Social
• 1× Main Event victory in Adelaide (finally!)
• APL Millions Mini High Roller chop
• Over $85k profit in live MTTs as a part‑time grinder
No complaints. What a ride.
🖥️ Online Recap
We’re up to 182 tournaments this month. Couldn’t go back‑to‑back deep in the $150 1M GTD, but we did make Day 2 of the $25 Weekender PKO before running JJ into QQ for 40bb with ~670 left. Rough.
Sunday was shaping up to be a disaster… until the PLO MTTs stepped in.
🔥 The Return of PLO MTTs
PLO tournaments have always been a format I enjoy and feel naturally comfortable in. There isn’t much free MTT‑specific PLO study out there, but there’s plenty of cash‑game content on YouTube, so I decided to fire a few events on Sunday.
Great decision.
$32 Sunday Omaha Bounty – 2nd Place
We saved the session with a deep run, finishing 2nd after getting brutally one‑outered heads‑up.
• We 4‑bet KK76 on the button
• Opponent calls 7754
• Flop 3‑2‑7 (one suit)
• We get it in for less than pot
• Only one 7 in the deck… and it lands to basically have us dead.
A ~$2k heads‑up pot slips away. Pain.
But the momentum was real.
More PLO Success
• Won the $21.60 PLO bounty on Saturday
• Cashed the $100 PLO5
• Came super close to a huge run in the $108 Winter Series PLO Main
And the graph for the month?
28 PLO MTTs → 216% ROI → 50% ITM
Tiny sample, but elite numbers.
It reminds me of the old $100 → $10k bankroll challenge, where most of the profit came from low‑stakes PLO MTTs before burnout hit at $2k. Looks like it’s time to bring them back into the rotation.
🎁 Wrapping Up
All in all, a great week. Below this update I’ll drop the graphs for the month so far — the close calls, the deep runs, and the overall volume.
With Christmas and the Boxing Day Test coming up, I’ll be playing a bit less, but I’ll recap whatever I do fire. And for those wondering: barely any Battle Royales this week. Too many good MTTs running right now.
Hope you all have an amazing Christmas period.
Total profit/loss for this month on PT4 for MTTs- please note avg position is very skewed - for thos wondering 2977.53 over / 63.42hrs = $46.95 per hr USD or aud 4466.89/63.42 = 70.43 per hr
(JUST PLO MTTs is 2366.23/21.90hrs = $108.05 per hr or in aud 3549.82/21.9 = 162.09 per hr)
1st place sat 21.60 PLO bounty
the Sunday 2nd place in the $32 PLO
The 108 PLO main winter series- came oh so close to a massive run.
Welcome to 2026
We wrapped up 2025 with a late‑session heater and rolled straight into the new year with a very clear focus — and maybe, just maybe, we’ve already kicked off 2026 with a bang.
Farewell 2025
I spent the final days of the year in Melbourne: cricket at the MCG, celebrating my partner’s son’s 18th at Crown, and enjoying a few days to reset. The G was absolutely rocking with 90k+ fans — unreal atmosphere.
When I got home, I only managed two sessions to close out the year… but they were worth it.
We shipped our third‑to‑last tournament of 2025, keeping the PLO run‑good alive.
That win capped off a strong December online. We finished the month just under $5k USD profit ($7,332.71 AUD). As expected, most of the profit came from PLO.
Results for the month of dec
PLO results for the month of dec
NLH was a small win — $723 AUD — after a hot start cooled off. The $25 Mystery 18‑mans were a rollercoaster: up over $3.5k at one point, finishing +$2k before the downswing hit.
But here’s the big one…
After importing everything from PT4 into the bankroll tracker, we officially locked in a $100,000 profit year (AUD) — clearing the mark by just $200. Honestly, I’d mentally given up on the 100k chase after a rough Matchroom series, but the late‑year PLO MTT surge saved the 6 figure year.
Starting 2026 With a Bang
Not going to lie — the first session of the year didn’t start pretty. I woke up late, fired a PLO‑only schedule, and immediately found myself down over $600 USD, punting off bullets everywhere (including 2x in the $108 Main).
Down to one table — the $54 PLO PKO — I decided to flick in a $30 satellite to the $150 PLO Winter Series Heater.
Won the satty.
And then things got wild.
The $150 Heater
Four hands in:
• 3 knockouts
• 4x starting stack
• Instant profit locked
The sun‑run continued and I finished with 12 total KOs.
The $54 PKO
Won a 3‑way all‑in for two bounties, cruised to the bubble with a healthy stack, and then absolutely bulldozed the final table.
• Took the chip lead from 4/7 to 1/6
• Knocked out the rest of the field
• Finished with 10 KOs
• Shipped it for $1.5k
Profit secured for the day — let’s go.
Back to the $150
We lost a huge pot 5 off the money (set + flush draw vs naked open‑ender), limped into the money with <20bb, then heated up again to reach the FT and take the chip lead with 5 left.
But unlike the $54, the run‑good didn’t hold.
• Lost a massive $448 bounty flip (straight draw + nut FD vs top pair)
• Then this gem:
BTN opens, SB folds, I 3‑bet pot with AA (As blockers), he calls.
Flop: I pot‑jam, he calls off with T‑high flush draw — horrendous call pre and on the flop.
Turn: he binks. GG me in 4th.
Still an insane score from a $30 satty, but brutal to miss what would’ve been a $5k+ total.
Incredibly, those two deep runs made nearly half of last month’s PLO profit — in just two tournaments.
2026 is officially underway.
Goals for 2026
1. Try to Beat 2025
It won’t be easy — $100k profit as a semi‑pro is a huge benchmark — but with more volume and sharper game selection, who knows.
2. Focus on PLO MTTs
The PLO To date graph says it all.
Even with a tiny sample, the ROI, BB/100, and adjusted numbers show we’re crushing mid‑stakes PLO fields.
I’ve never formally studied PLO MTTs, so at some point I’ll look into proper study material. But for now, the natural feel is carrying us strong.
Results to date note the 42% ITM and ROI of 189% - will say ITM is skewed because PT4 says that if I bust an mtt but have a KO (even a min KO) we have cashed the mtt
BB/100 is 25.30 crushing the field, anything over 10bb/100 it mtts is considered great so curshing over the small sample. Our Adj BB/100 says we should of won at 27.06 so we actually have run slightly under EV so far over 3k hands
3. Keep Playing All My Usual Live Events
Live poker treated me well in 2025. If we can continue that momentum, another six‑figure year is absolutely in play — and if we fall short, that’s fine too.
Happy New Year
Wishing everyone a safe, happy, and profitable 2026.
May you run better this year than you did last year.
Ask Co-pilot that 10bb/100 is still crushing in PLO mtts as its crushing in NLH MTTs and this was the answer FYI
Bink BIG and bink OFTEN!
Weekly(ish) Update
Hey everyone — time for a fresh update. PLO has been in full swing, and after an absolutely insane session on January 2nd, the run has continued strong over the past week.
It hasn’t all been smooth sailing, though. When volume dips, I’ve been mixing in some PLO cash as well. So let’s break everything down and see where we’re at.
NLH MTTs — The Ugly
NLH MTTs have really dragged down the overall monthly grind so far. They’ve always been my bread and butter, but the edge in mid–high stakes is razor thin right now. With PLO MTTs being such a gold mine, shifting my focus makes way more sense.
I’ve also been table‑hunting Lex now that he’s back — it’s been 12 years since we last shared an online table — but that hasn’t helped the results either. With so much of the monthly EV tied to one massive deep run, I’ll be avoiding most NLH MTTs for the time being.
NLH MTT graph! Just awful straight down- I have run below BB/100 ev but still not a great graph to see. Very small sample size however
PLO MTTs — The Great
The upswing continues. After a rough session immediately following a small withdrawal on GG, we bounced back hard and kept crushing. Plenty of cashes, deep runs, and even a couple of binks. I’ll post some of those results below.
The data so far shows that at mid–low stakes, I’m printing — even if it’s still a short sample. I’m over the 5k‑hand mark now, so it’ll be interesting to see how things trend as the volume grows. Still early days, but the momentum is real.
PLO MTT graph - thes are going great. 2.3k hands this month an unreal BB/100 and adjusted data. ROI % is huge and up a fair amount. These do look promising over the small smaple size
All PLO MTTs since dec 22 when I have been tracking, the data here looks fantastic but 5k hands is to early to tell.
PLO Cash — The New
I’ve started dipping into PLO cash as part of studying the game more broadly. Most good PLO content is cash‑focused with some MTT adjustments sprinkled in, so it feels like the right move. I’m tempted to grab the Upswing PLO course, but for now I’ve got enough free study material to work through.
So far, I feel comfortable in these games. The jump from 25PLO to 200PLO isn’t huge in terms of pool quality — the regs at 200PLO are strong, but there are still plenty of weaker players. Again, tiny sample size, but the early results are promising.
The graph below shows the win/loss for all PLO cash in January. It’s a super small sample and doesn’t include rakeback yet. With GG changing their RB system, adding some cash volume to boost RB makes sense, but the main focus will stay on PLO MTTs.
The cash graph for PLO - I am up as you can see over 718 hands, however I have a poor BB/100 and adjusted - this highlights I have either been A) lucky in some all in spots or B) (and what its more been) - getting it completely dead in some cooler spots. - sample size makes this wing a bit.
Conclusion
The month is shaping up nicely, and PLO MTTs have been an absolute gold mine. I’ve got a clear focus now: keep improving, keep grinding, and reassess where I’m at in 2–3 months.
Have a great one, and I’ll catch you all soon.
shipped the 32 PLO PKO for piles
very close to another 4-figure score here in the $54 PLO PKO
Turbo $30 lost the heads up but we did deal! another solid 10x result
The small ones count shipping the $10 PLO
yes but how much did u lose?
u are poker pro. keep binking and remember if you aint first your last. BINK BIG and BINK OFTEN! Don't never forget that.
SERIOUS coins are made in blackjack roulette and slots. poker is a mugs game.
Weekly Update: Riding the PLO Waves
About nine days have passed since the last update, and there’s been no shortage of PLO action. Time to break down how things have gone and what the rest of the month might hold.
PLO MTTs
The past week in PLO MTTs has been on the rougher side. Our hot run and strong conversion rate cooled off, with a mix of soft bubbles, brutal coolers, and a couple of spots where we simply didn’t play our best.
The good news: we’re still up for the month and the overall data looks solid. The downside: no major scores over the last stretch to keep the momentum rolling.
One highlight, though — the $32 Winter Series PLO event. It took 13 bullets to make Day 2, but bullet number 13 finally delivered. We bagged 13 starting stacks, picked up a pile of KOs, and finished the flight 2nd out of 13.
Last check had us sitting 331/1479 with 81bb heading into Day 2. With $15k + PKO up top, a deep run here would more than make up for the week’s frustrations.
Very rough stretch of mtts over this point - have run under the data but still should be losing BB/100 - 1 poor week doesnt shape the month though
PLO Cash
Cash games have been… interesting.
At 25PLO, the pool has been giving us absolute headaches — losing big pots, running into coolers, and not improving in key spots. But the story flips completely at 50PLO, where we’re winning comfortably against the field.
Even the occasional shot-take at higher stakes has gone well when we’ve spotted a soft table. So overall, we’re up a respectable amount in cash games.
The BB/100 graph looks ugly because the big losses are concentrated at 25PLO, while the wins at 50–100PLO tend to be small-to-medium pots. But profit is profit, and between winnings and rakeback, the cash grind is doing its job.
On top of that, I’ve now got access to the Upswing PLO Masterclass at a fraction of the cost. With more structured study, the goal is to turn a solid win rate into a great one.
Winning over $700 usd or ($1,058.96 aud) at $43.78usd an hr or $65.49 aud. - however note still down on BB/100 due to the poor run at 25plo
Live MTTs
Live poker is back.
The Stacked Poker Championship kicked off yesterday, marking our first live stop of 2026. Last year we final-tabled the Main Event in two out of three stops — hoping to repeat that success this time around.
The schedule includes a $100k GTD Mini Main, a Stud event, and a couple of PLO tournaments. I haven’t locked in my full schedule yet, but I’ll update you all as I decide what to fire.
Conclusion
All things considered, it’s been a decent week. The month is still shaping up to be a winning one, and with a deep run or two, January could turn into a fantastic start to 2026.
I’ll keep you posted — and below you’ll find the month-to-date results for both cash and PLO MTTs.
Month to date PLO cash graph
Month to date PLO MTT graph- still showing some really strong data even after losing 1k in a week
so close to a massive run in the $32 PLO winter series day 2 - played very well- got a little unlucky in a few spots final 200 - makes that MTT PLO graph for the month look alot better!
Our First Live Series of 2026 + Weekly Online Recap
The first live event of 2026 is in the books, and it’s been an interesting mix of online cash, study, and our first live event of the year. Between transitioning formats, diving deeper into PLO theory, and taking a couple of shots live, there’s plenty to break down.
Online MTTs
Not a huge volume week on the MTT front, but we did make Day 2 of the Weekender PLO off the first bullet. Unfortunately, we came into Day 2 with just 18bb, blinded down to 11bb, and then picked up KKxx double‑suited in the big blind.
Chip leader opens 100bb deep. Easy jam.
He wakes up with AAxx, we brick despite turning both a straight and flush draw with KK54, and that was that.
Outside of that, not much to report — volume was tiny and nothing else really went our way.
PLO Cash
This was the real focus of the week.
I’ve shifted almost entirely to two tables of Rush PLO cash while studying the Upswing course. The idea is simple:
• More hands per hour
• More rakeback
• Higher focus and quality of play
• Better ability to apply new concepts immediately
The strange part?
I’m losing at the smallest stake I play — and losing at a surprisingly high clip. It’s skewing the BB/100 graph for the month, but the bigger picture is still solid. Overall, we’re up for January so far, which is what matters.
PLO Study
This week’s study block exposed a couple of clear leaks:
• Opening the wrong classes of hands from early position
• Over‑3‑betting certain KKxx combos
• Misclassifying hands that should be flats vs 3-bets based on blocker structure
I’ve never done a deep structured PLO study before, and honestly, it’s been eye‑opening. The game is so much richer than it looks on the surface.
I’m confident we’ll stabilise and start crushing 25PLO again — even though I’ve mostly been playing 50PLO due to the two‑table setup.
$400 Monster Stack + Live Series Update
The first live event of 2026 kicked off with the $400 Monster Stack ($40k GTD), and things started beautifully.
Early Run‑Up
Within the first orbit, we spun our 100k starting stack up to 300k, holding the biggest stack in the room for a good while.
We had 370k after the first six levels and were cruising.
Then… live poker did what live poker does.
Key Hands
Hand 1 – AQs vs 54s
EP opens, we 3-bet AQs from the SB to 5.5bb.
BB — a wild, splashy player — flats 20bb with 54s. EP calls.
Flop J♣ 4x 6x.
We c‑bet small, BB jams, EP folds.
We’re priced in with two overs + backdoors.
Brick brick. Down we go.
Hand 2 – AQs vs A5o
MP jams 12bb with A5o.
We reshove AQs on the button.
Board runs 9 8 8 3 … 5.
Down to 200k.
We rebuild to 370k, then the big one hits.
Hand 3 – JJ vs AA (Cooler City)
UTG opens 2.5x.
We flat JJ on the button to keep the crazy SB in the pot.
SB 3-bets to 9bb. UTG folds. We call.
We start with 45bb.
Pot is already 20bb.
Flop 8 2 3 rainbow.
SB bets 17bb.
It’s a gross spot — calling turns our hand face‑up, and this player can absolutely have worse pairs or random 8x.
We rip it in.
He snaps with AA.
And that’s the tournament.
Theoretical Review
Even if we play the hand “by the book” — 3-bet pre, call the 4-bet, call flop, call turn, call river — we still lose our stack. (run out was 832r 4x 3x - so never folding).
It’s simply a cooler in a high‑SPR spot.
Despite the exit, I felt sharp, composed, and very comfortable. That bodes well for the rest of the series.
Events Still to Come
• $250 Stud (I’m hosting a “how to play” walkthrough an hour before to help boost numbers)
• $350 Mini Main – 100k GTD
• $1250 Main Event (FT’d 2 of 3 attempts last year)
• $400 Mystery Bounty – 2 Day Event
• $250 PLO PKO
• $250 5‑Card PLO
Plenty of action ahead. (could fire the 2k as well and sell action).
Conclusion
A pretty “meh” week overall — nothing disastrous, nothing spectacular.
January is still shaping up to be a winning month, and historically I always start the year strong before hitting a rough Feb–Apr stretch.
Maybe this is the year we break the pattern.
Maybe this is the year we just win every month.
Why the hell not.
Graphs for the week will be below.
I’ll be back later in the week with a full live event recap.
This Month so far PLO MTTs- small dip as you can see over the last week but only 8 mtts played.
This month PLO Cash- As you can see -$355 at -142bb 25 plo........- yet winning at 50plo and higher....... Very strange. Overall -15bb/100 due to 25plo but up $499 or $641 for the pots we didn't take a Cash out option which I have done a few times. I've also decided to exclude the 5/10 PLO session we played with the cash dollars we had- It skews the data and I want to give a fair picture of where we are without pumping up the overall winning month to much for you guys. (did win over $100 at 68bb- see previous update).
Bink big and bink OFTEN! Remember if u aint first ur last!
Pile do you reaaly have to come in everywhere whit your same oll BS..... man your annoying
This month PLO Cash- As you can see -$355 at -142bb 25 plo........- yet winning at 50plo and higher....... Very strange.
Only 1k hands and PLO variance can be crazy, would worry after 10k hands. Gl in grind.
plo the great game of pot limit omaha. remember the varience is high and some pros wont play it due to the swings.
January Wrap-Up: Not Quite the Finish I Had Planned
Hey everyone,
Definitely not the end of January I was hoping to write about. Since Tuesday I’ve been seriously unwell — bad enough that I ended up in hospital on Thursday night. Long story short, I managed to pick up one of the worst cases of gastro the team at the QEH had seen. My temperature wouldn’t settle, I couldn’t keep down any fluids, and I dropped 2kg in just a few days. After three IV drips and a pretty rough stretch, I’m finally back home and recovering.
As you can imagine, poker volume this week was basically non‑existent. I barely played a hand online… although this morning I did manage to late reg the $54 PLO Weekender, played 27 hands, and somehow bagged nine starting stacks. So at least February kicks off with a Day 2.
Live poker was a write‑off too. I missed a bunch of events, but I did still teach the Stud session on Monday night before everything went downhill. That part was actually great — seven people joined, five of them jumped straight into the MTT afterwards, and one of them finished second. As for my own run, we had endless chances to make huge hands and bricked every single one. One of the regs even joked, “If Dammo was playing like he has in the 10k 8‑Game at WSOP, he’d have all the chips… but here vs the newbies he got none.” Ended up 16th for $0
Despite the chaos, January still finished as a winning month: +$3.5k AUD across live and online, all tracked in the bankroll app. The online graph includes the 5/10 punt with cash dollars — if you take that out, the month looks even better.
Hoping to feel good enough to fire a Day 1 of the Main Event next week and chase another deep run. For now, just focusing on getting fully healthy again.
Stay well,
DAMMO_23
MTT Results graph up 3.1k usd or 4.5k AUD over 114 mtts and 42hrs of play
Stats for the MTTs showing im running above EV by about 10bb but still crushing over 14bb/100 when adjusted
Losing month our 1st time playing cash- take out that 5/10 shot we are up swimmingly. Great fight back to even too! excited to see where the study takes us next.
10k lol nice troll, more like 1Mhh even that still not enough for theoric wr
At least you remember if you aint first your last! Bink big and bink often is a common saying around here. keep trying to bink mtts.
Important to post the losses - tried moving up got rekt over two days.................. didnt run good but towards the end deffs got in my head and tilted will get back to the drawing board and move back down to 50PLO likely a losing month this month oh well..
February Update: A Tough Start, but Clear Positives Ahead
Hey guys, quick update for the month. It hasn’t been the greatest start, but there are some positives and a clearer direction moving forward.
PLO Cash
After giving PLO cash a proper try over the past month, I’ve decided to put it on the back burner. The reality is I’m just too far behind the curve in this format right now, and there’s no point putting volume into a game where I don’t have an edge. Simple as that — focus goes where the EV is, and PLO cash isn’t it for me at the moment.
PLO MTTs
A combination of factors has made this one tricky:
• Night‑time (Asian timezone) PLO MTT volume has been extremely low
• Because of that, I haven’t been able to put in the reps or build momentum
• I’m still firing them when table space allows, especially during morning sessions
The results reflect the lack of volume and some run bad: sitting at –17bb/100, when I should realistically be around breakeven. So the downswing has shown up here.
NLH MTTs
It’s been nice returning to the format I’ve studied the most and have the deepest experience in.
I took a shot at a bigger Sunday schedule (around 2–3k USD worth of high‑stakes buy‑ins) and bricked everything. Outside of that, the regular ABI grind has actually gone pretty well with some solid scores.
The frustrating part:
I’m running at –5.5bb/100, when the expectation for the month based on spots played is +9.59bb/100. Amazing how a rough start to the month can drag down the whole graph.
But the important thing is the play has been strong — the results just haven’t followed yet.
Stacked Main Event
Still wasn’t feeling 100% after being sick, but I gave the second‑to‑last flight a go. Doubled up early, then played my F‑game and busted nowhere near Day 2.
Opted for a normal online Sunday grind instead, plus a Day 2 MLR — which, as you can see from above, didn’t go our way despite playing well.
Final Thoughts
It’s probably going to end up a losing month, but there are real positives:
• Playing well across formats
• No reward yet, but the fundamentals are strong
• With consistent grinding at the 30 ABI, we can reduce the damage
• Momentum can swing quickly — next month is a fresh slate
The key takeaway: the process is good. The results will catch up.
Close to an unreal score in the $32 speedracer folded down to .4bb and got a ladder on the FT
A unreal run in the $30 hyper and again close to a big score- AT vs QT for the last of it which is unlucky
Lost a brutal one heads up vs a great reg- Lost A8 vs A7 and J7 vs 87 3-handed
Todays session as you can see with the BB/100 vs the all in adjusted - kinda how the month is going with a lot of semi - deep runs but losing the big important hands.
you need to remember to BINK BIG and BINK OFTEN!
Move up the stakes on gg where u can really BINK BIG. Do it often.
you need to remember to BINK BIG and BINK OFTEN!
Move up the stakes on gg where u can really BINK BIG. Do it often.
Think this is why you have lost a pile?- it should be based on stats and br management- clearly good enough to grind where I am (all in adjusted ev) - which is a decent ABI - I think moving to $100+ abi is quite difficult without full time commitment to study and playing - will still shot take some Sunday mtts - but yeah pacing your moving up would be my advice
February: One of the Toughest Months of My Career
Well… this has been rough. Honestly, one of the worst months I’ve had since taking poker semi‑professionally.
Online—especially on GG—absolutely buried me. I’m down over 5k this month between MTTs and a sprinkle of cash, and the decision to shift almost entirely to online play has basically nuked what was shaping up to be a great start to the year.
A Pattern I Can’t Ignore
I went back through five years of results, and something jumped out immediately:
I’ve been profitable in every month except two—December (down 2k, which is fine given the big SA series) and February.
But February?
Lifetime I’m down 19k in this month alone.
Every other month is comfortably positive. That’s not a coincidence. So next year, skipping February might be the move.
Stepping Back Before I Break
Right now, GG has me mentally cooked. Based on the volume and spots I’m playing, I should be running around +2bb/100. Nothing crazy, but enough to be breakeven. Instead, I’m deep in the bin.
Some of this is self‑inflicted. I tried moving up in stakes this month and got eaten alive. The small amount of GTO work I’ve done this week made it painfully clear: I’m nowhere near ready to battle at a 50–100 ABI online.
Accepting Who I Am as a Player
The truth is simple:
I’m a better live reg.
Always have been. All my biggest scores are live. The games are softer. And with my partner moving in next month, I’ll have more freedom and stability to play live consistently again.
I’ll still fire up GG occasionally with the small roll I’ve left there—mainly to test new concepts and stay sharp—but the days of grinding online volume are done for now.
What’s Next
For the rest of February, it’s study mode.
March brings a regional live series, including a team event with 3.5k up top for the winners. Never played a team event before, so that’ll be a fun change of pace—and a good excuse for a road trip.
I’ll likely mix in some live cash too. I was profitable years ago at 1/3, 2/5, and 5/5 locally; I just never had the consistent schedule back then.
Posting the Bad With the Good
This blog is about variance and mental game, and this month tested both hard.
The deeper I went into the hole, the longer I played. The longer I played, the deeper the hole got. My ability to quit, reset, or stay positive completely evaporated. It’s been a long time since I’ve spiraled like this—punting late‑night cash, feeling negative after sessions, losing the mental edge that usually keeps me grounded.
Variance in MTTs is brutal. And honestly, this stretch isn’t even that bad compared to what others go through. But it still stings.
The Plan Moving Forward
There’s nothing to do except study, reset, grow, and get back to what I do best:
Putting in the work.
Showing up to live games.
Crushing souls.
It’s a different kind of update this time—coming off a -6k online swing and looking at a -9k month overall—but the bad deserves to be posted just as much as the good.
The year is still salvageable. My biggest losing year ever is only 4k (2023), and we’ve got plenty of time to turn this around.
Until next time — catch ya.
Our First Live Cash Session of the Year
It’s been a long time coming.
Since I started tracking my results in 2021, I’ve only played 38 cash game sessions — but in that small sample, I’m up $98/hr and a solid chunk overall. The funny part? I hadn’t played a single live cash session since early 2024.
So walking back into a 5/10 game felt equal parts daunting and exciting. A bit of rust, a bit of adrenaline, and a whole lot of curiosity about how the night would unfold. And wow… it had everything: a heater, a collapse, a mental battle, and a comeback.
Starting Hot
The game kicked off 5‑handed, and within two orbits our $1,500 buy‑in had ballooned to $2.9k.
Key Hand #1 — J♥T♥ vs KQo
• HJ (active reg I know well) opens to $25
• CO (new reg to me) 3bets to $75
• I look down at J♥T♥ on the button
• Flatting is fine, but heads‑up in position is my happy place → I 4bet to $225
• HJ folds, CO calls
Flop: Q♦9♦3♣
Before I even decide between c‑betting or checking back, villain leads $175 into me. Weird line, but our hand plays great as a flat.
Turn: K♦
Flush completes, but we make the straight. Pot is just over $900, I’ve got $1.1k behind. Villain checks. Easy jam. I’m targeting Kx, Qx with a diamond, or AA with a diamond.
He tanks, calls, and we run it twice: 6♠, 3♣.
He shows KQo.
We scoop.
Up almost 1.5k in minutes. Life is good.
The Slide
Then the table fills to 9‑handed… and the dynamic flips instantly.
Every open gets 3bet.
Every defend vs 3bet turns into top pair, worst kicker. (KJ vs KQ or KT vs AT etc).
Every pot feels uphill with a big decision on the river.
We drop from $2.9k to $1.8k.
Then I torch $1k bluffing into what I now know is a nit.
Suddenly I’m down $800.
I reload $1,300.
And lose almost every pot I play.
At one point, it looked like a $2.8k losing night was locked in.
The Hand That Saved the Session
Key Hand #2 — JJ vs a splashy reg
I’m in the BB with $700.
Splashy Asian reg opens to $50.
I 3bet to $150, he calls.
Flop: A♣K♣6♦
I c‑bet $125 with range advantage. He calls.
Turn: 7♥
I check with the plan to call river if it checks through — which it does.
River: K♥
Board pairs. His value range is mostly boats. His missed range is flush draws, weaker pairs that may bluff like 99, TT to fold out my weak Ax.
I check, fully prepared to call.
He jams.
I tank.
I call.
He mucks.
This pot didn’t just save money — it saved my mindset. After hours of losing, whiffing, and feeling outclassed, trusting a read and being right was exactly what I needed.
The Comeback
From there:
• climbed back to $1.4k
• won a few more pots
• 4bet KTs vs a wide range and took it down on AJ9♣♣
• rebuilt to $2.8k
We ended the night –$20.
Given how deep in the hole I was, that’s a massive win in disguise. And with the free BBQ they put on for players… we probably ended up net positive overall.
Mental Game Reflections
This session was a reminder of why I write these blogs.
Three hours earlier, down $1.3k, I messaged my partner saying I might be home in half an hour. I felt out of my depth, frustrated, and tilted. But I reset. I focused on making the best decision in front of me. And it worked.
That said, there were leaks:
• Some hate‑losing tilt
• Some negative self‑talk
• Some loose calls OOP vs Villian 3bets
• Some spots where discipline slipped (calling these 3bets to wide)
These aren’t massive blow‑ups, but in these games, folding marginal hands OOP is where the money is. Deviating from that is tilt — even if it doesn’t look like tilt.
Recognising it is step one. Fixing it is step two.
Final Thoughts
I’m proud I hung in there. Proud I found my A‑game when I needed it. Proud I didn’t let a brutal stretch turn into a disaster.
This session gives me confidence moving forward — confidence that I can still battle when down piles, still reset, still trust my reads.
Next session update coming soon.
Scores for the night:
• Focus: 9/10
• Mentality: 7/10 (room to grow)
• Poker Play: 7/10 (cash game spots need work)
Have a great night — see you next time.
