Late night wake up alarm with OESFD

Flop is interesting and I think you're right. The only thing I want to add is that I did play around a bit with ranges and it is essentially impossible for hero to get it in ''bad''. Like worst case scenario it's like 28% 3 ways, best case scenario he has 54% HU.
But again, I do think you're right, we're essentially looking to flip for 1500bb. Not a fan of that.

Run the equity calc with 2P. And giving Banana something like Ah8h (though would Banana 4! something like AhQh? Not sure given that V, and probably not, which was why I looked first with AQhh..)

Anyway, whether you give V2 something like 97s, or 99/77/33, and you give B AhXh, KhKx isn't doing all that great: ~14-16%. And they need ~30 or so.

I'm kind of surprised the whale folded, tbh. Lots don't, even when they should. Maybe the guy's learning?

V2 (CO) called B's open to 10, then calls the tiny 3! by V1 (SB), while everyone is mostly deep AF. Then 4.6x's whale's b60 and B's call. I'm seeing that as fat value vs a whale's big hand, and what other fat value is there?

Maybe downgrade 99 a tad to 1-2 combos if you think V2 3!'s which asks a SB whale to cold call 2 to the face, but 77/33/97s are all there, IMHO. Agree, I'd have made it 400 vs 300, were I V2. Shrug.

There is some possibility everyone folds to hero's shove. V2 is in a difficult situation. He is probably flipping versus a combo draw or crushed versus a set. 33 is more likely, as he strongly blocks 99 or 77. He is 16% against 33 and 0.1% against 99. I typical 1/3 player isn't going to fold there after raising, but maybe he should.

Obviously V2 put V1 on QQ+ and was trying to build the pot, expecting hero to fold.

I wouldn't get to V1's spot the way he did. But magically teleported there, at the point where he folded, my thinking would be that neither Banana nor V2 has very many sets.

99 is often 3B pre. 33 is sometimes folded pre. Even 77 might be 3B pre at some frequency. I'd think any set, and for that matter 2P, would likely raise larger than $300, on this very wet and dynamic board, when there's already $235 in the pot after the PFR's c-bet and Banana's call.

I wouldn't expect any combos of 93 or 73, so in V1's spot, I'd guestimate we're looking at 1 or 2 combos of 97s, and maybe 4 possible set combos, if we're discounting their likelihood based on the action to that point.

I wouldn't expect many AXhh combos, either. Maybe A3hh, or some combo with backdoor straight potential that wasn't strong enough to raise pre. So, maybe 6 combos of A2hh to A8hh. I'm not giving them credit for flatting pre with AThh-AKhh and playing those hands this way on the flop.

V1's 3B pre was kind of small. His flop c-bet on this wet and dynamic board was likewise not all that big, considering the board texture and that he's OOP. This is a flop texture that's supposed to be better for the pre-flop callers' ranges, not the PFR's. But when Banana flats the c-bet, he looks pretty capped.

All things considered, if I was in V1's spot, with a splashy table image, I'd think V2 could easily be getting out of line with a draw, and not always the NFD. His reaction to Banana's jam doesn't make him look all that strong. And Banana definitely looks like he's pushing with a draw.

When action is back on V1, he's already put more than 1/4 of his starting stack in, and now he's being laid around 2.4:1. He needs to win a little less than 30% of the time to make it a profitable call.

Against two ranges with a boatload of draws, not all of them with an ace, plus maybe 5 or 6 combos of 2P and sets, I'd think KhKc can't be too far behind, though I don't know if he's got the 30% equity needed to make the call profitable.

Assuming he doesn't have the best hand on the flop, he has 2 outs to make a higher set vs 33, or the board can pair, counterfeiting 97, or he can go runner-runner to make a flush, or he can go runner-runner 9's or 7's to counterfeit 33 by making a better boat.

If he thinks V2 is OOL, and he thinks both V2 and Banana are on a draw, it doesn't seem like an auto-fold.

I'm not saying I'd love it in his spot. I'm just surprised he folded KhKc after putting 1/4 of his stack in, given the read that he's a whale, and given the prior hand history of him stacking off with AA in a 3-way pot, on a super-wet and connected board, and given the >2:1 pot odds.

I just figured out what was bothering me about V2's $300 raise. There was $235 in the pot when action gets to him on the flop, and V1 would have to call exactly that amount to continue.

It almost seems like he was sitting there trying to calculate the most GTO raise size. But if our read is that he plays face-up, I'd expect him to size up a bit with 2P or a set, to target V1's over-pairs he has crushed, and to discourage Banana from coming along with whatever draw he's on.

If V2 made it $400 or $500, I'd be more likely to think he just always has 2P or a set, or he's got some massive combo draw. When he makes it $300, it looks like he's unwilling to commit to a more marginal hand.

Your entire reasoning is based on this. Which is just wrong. It's kind of ridiculous to pretend we should be discounting sets here for V2 when a loose PASSIVE doesn't 3bet those hands, and you know they don't.

Have you ever thought about the possibility that V2 for the most part is just clicking buttons(in regards to sizing) and that we have a read from Banana saying this raise size is particularly large for V2?

Everything I said that you quoted was related to V1 folding KhKc, not any decision OP made. We have no idea what V1 knows about V2, what he's seen from V2, etc.

OP said V1 is a whale, and gave us a previous hand history that was somewhat similar, in which V1 got it in with an over-pair on a very connected board. Now suddenly he's folding an over-pair after putting in >1/4 of his stack, and getting almost 2.5 to 1.

I expressed surprise V1 folded here, given the reads, the history, the actions, the pot odds, etc, and was explaining why I found it surprising. That's all.

Ease up.

From V2's point of view, hero should have a set or a strong draw only. Hero is not open raising 93s or 73s, so the only 2 pair in 97s, which is V2 blocks and is chopping with. So V2 should consider folding to the shove.

equilibrium worth little here. oop not supposed to cbet, no one really supposed to flat after he bets yet everyone does lol

will look ip to only raising 2p+ i guess (i had to lock oop to pure cbet ops / fds / overcards w bdfd and then when he does guy in the middle goes after it mostly playing raise or fold, if he flats 3rd guy always raise or folds, when he raises the cbettor is supposed to play raise or fold then when he flats guy in the middle mixes flat and raise (and fold obviously)

locked this for ip only raising combo draws / 2p+ and then 3bettor calling half his overpairs and it still wants to pure raise. this is pot / 10 so pretty big difference between flat and raise all in (30 bb!)

30xBB is $90, so a huge flip for a relatively small expected profit, as others have said, but also the best play. The expected advantage of shoving may be greater than that if you nodelock assumptions are too strong.

Obviously, not GTO to cbet KK OOP 3-way on this flop. However, whale who 3! tiny OOP is not playing correctly. Many would cbet this, and more before solvers.

The solver output points to what I was trying to understand and express. V1 3B small pre, and then c-bets this flop that doesn't really favor his range. I wonder if he ever intuits that his line may have induced the action behind him, and so he ends up just going with his hand, believing that OP and V2 have a ton of draws.