KK in a scared-money nitfest — flop/turn strategy question

The nit UTG open (and not limp!) and calling a 3 bet is like never going to be a set. Nits snap fold AKo to 3bets.

You have to decide if you're playing to win or playing not to lose. Because the discourse here and in other threads seems like maybe you're the nit in the game.

Given all the data, I think I probably shove all in. Is he really betting 50 on the turn with a set or 2 pair? Maybe but that would be very bad play as there are 2 flush draws out there. I’m thinking he has Ax of hearts. Then again if you think he would shove the river on a missed draw I would call and if hearts miss I would call his all in.

You posted another hand with a ridiculous fold of AA with most of the money in. Then, having learned nothing, you make another ridiculous fold of KK with most of the money in.

Villain is supposed to be tight and raise/called in ep. Even if he isn't a total nit, he probably has 88+/AQ+ or maybe suited broadway. Sure he could have a set, 2 pair, or a set, but those are less likely given the preflop action.

Villain could have a small pp that he raised in ep hoping it would go multiway, and then called the 3! hoping to stack hero's big pair, and thinking it might go 3-ways.

However, he is described as nitty, so he might limp or fold a small pp in ep. He shouldn't have a small sc. He really shouldn't have Axs, and hero is ahead of most of those.

You really can't analyze this much though. You just have to go with the big pair.

All the little cards not in your range, but remember 68% of the time nobody pairs on the flop. I think the thing to realize is there are more draws than made hands and you simply can’t check this turn.

If I’m the villain with a pair of tens and you check the turn, now I can represent all these scary hands. Especially if I have a clue that you are pretty nitty. You allow him to get into your head and leave monsters under the bed.

I have done what you have done and unlike some of the others, I’m not criticizing. Anytime you fold can never be too big a mistake.

What I have learned with this type of board:
With AK I’m trying to check my way thru and I’ll probably get out of the way at some point
But with QQ+ the money goes in. The difference in value is significant with more chance to win unimproved.

Guess if I was ridiculously deep, I might hesitate, but I have seen people turn over some head scratchers.

Pot the turn and now villain has to decide whether to call off his stack. Put it on him and let him overthink it. He could call with that pair of tens.

Finally, if people criticize you for folding, I would wear it as a badge of honor. Most people play this game their entire lives and never learn how to fold.

A lot of people can't fold big hands, but OP goes way to far.

"You have to know when to holdem, know when to foldem, know when to walk away, know when to run."

Would probably 3bet a bit bigger.

Would probably x flop planning on x/r for most bets, if he doesn't have something that can bet on the flop then he's probably drawing dead to the turn (maybe 88 checks sometimes?).

If not checking flop, I'd bet smaller like $25 or bigger for like $100.

I don't mind turn check, but would def. shrug shove for this size ... although it is kind of a weird size, where 4x should happily bet it but it's not a great size for 99-JJ. Would kind of default to randomness and decide 1 pair is betting too small though, or maybe some kind of AdJd or something.

Esp. in a friendly home game it can be fun to sometimes say "I guess I need a diamond" before you shove turn. If you want to show the Kd that can also be great/terrible.

tl;dr I understand the desire to be cautious on these kinds of flops that you almost never hit ... but given your description of V he doesn't hit a set here much either and has a decent number of overpairs that don't want to fold (and will often bet to charge AK). Would be more worried vs. random fish at a 1-2 table.

It's probably not a good idea to start check/folding top of range no. If I can give you some actual advice for this game though, this game doesn't sound like it's worth playing, at all.

This type of game can be pretty profitable (especially when it's rake free). My personal style is built around running over these types of games.

The trick is to build pots preflop by finding the right size bets to thin the field and only get one or two callers. Then steal pots relentlessly postflop with aggression to exploit the over folding. You just have to recognize the tipping point where they fold almost everything and bluff right up to it, then shut down and only continue with strong value if they continue past it.

Most commonly that means betting small on lots of flops, to get them to raise if they are strong and give away the strength of their hand. Then if they only call flop you can steal lots of pots with big turn bets. That's where most of your profit will come from.

Then mostly check down river if your turn bet is called, because if they call the turn they always have a strong hand. The exception is when a scare card hits on the river sometimes you can continue bluffing and get the strong turn calls to fold.

You just have to red line them to death.

absurd fold

turn seems like a vb to me

can also x flop

In a 3bet pot for only 120bb, we are never folding overpairs unless they show me they got better or unless they're the most passive player you've ever seen.