Aggro young V applies turn pressure at 1/3

I have no problem with the raise in general, but your logic seems internally inconsistent. Is V defending the button wide, or are we going to end up vs the blinds a lot? It mostly matters because if we do expect V to defend like 20% or less then he has a much stronger range on this board than if he's defending 40-50%.

Flop: Yeah, I check too. I think checking or betting small are both viable lines.

Turn: I check, but I don't hate the lead because it is nice to charge draws. Facing the raise, I don't think we can fold unless we think V is incapable of bluffing. V has a lot of natural semi-bluffs like FDs, SDs.

River: Block bet/fold unless we think he is spazzing. We don't want to let him check back Jx here, and it's really tough for us to call a jam if we inspire his busted draws to bluff.

Yeah, that's kind of the central debate here, I think - how much people bluff here. Lately I've been finding myself in spots where I think I've been over-estimating my opponents' aggression, especially when my line may have induced.

Dude, how do you know I'm not Sammy Farha? Maybe I'm on a downswing.

Just kidding. I'm not Sammy Farha.

As for the rest, are you asking me, or the crowd? I'm not sure I even understand the question, and it seems to assume I have a position one way or the other, and I don't know what it is.

Am I the protractor? No one's ever called me that. I feel like I'm supposed to be insulted, but I don't know what inference to take from it. Is it something to do with angles?

Is the main point I should just c-bet the flop?

For all the $hlt we give each other, I still appreciate your willingness to show up and give input. Thank you, sincerely.

As it happens, I was thinking about his on my drive home, and started to think a small block bet on the river is probably better than a check.

Can I assume we're folding to a raise if we b10, or is this one of those b10 and call it off spots? My gut tells me we should fold to a raise, but if there's a theoretical argument to bet-call, I'd love to hear it.

Re, my thoughts pre...I wasn't concerned about the blinds calling my raise, based on my reads and having position on them post. Full stop.

I wasn't trying to figure out how wide the BTN would defend before he actually did. Once he defends, then I'm starting to range him, and I think he's going to be defending fairly wide, based on my read. I'd say 20% is low, but I wouldn't want to guess by how much, which is part of the reasoning behind mostly checking range from OOP, to gain info by his actions.

V is young and seemed competently aggro. He seemed capable of bluffing in spots where it makes sense, i.e, when he perceives weakness and / or he thinks he has fold equity or raw equity to bluff profitably.

100. (Though I don't usually argue with sub. And he's right: Buying a solver license, and practicing with it, are table stakes for anything beyond training wheels NLHE in 2026.) You're not the protractor here, doc.

Anyway, not opening A2s there, but you did. I am betting flop here, and I honestly find the arguments against, unpersuasive. H doesn't have a draw, really (though neither does V, likely), and H is supposed to hit AJ4hhs from EP. Bet already. They'll call, even w/o an Ace. Or even a Jack. See what happens on turn.

In SE TX, provided it doesn't go nuts with aggression, IP & drawing will sometimes check to take a free card, whiff, and then decide they need to get pushy. So I agree with Yami and I'm calling turn. Probably betting turn smaller though.

River...? Thought it was the most obv x/c, but solvers like b10/20 here? Shrug.

I read this again and have questions. This one of a few spots I've found myself in recently that I haven't spent much time thinking about or analyzing.

If we're supposed to be polar here, that means we shouldn't be betting weak TP's, and instead we're supposed to bet thick value and bluffs, correct? What size bet would that indicate? An over-bet?

If I was IP and c-bet the flop, I'd be over-betting the turn a lot when it's just a brick, both with thick value and bluffs. When I'm OOP with thin value, I figured a small bet to target his worse 1P and draws would be best.

I chose to bet $20 because I was going for a bet that was small in absolute terms, not necessarily relative to the pot size, just as a live exploit. I think a $10 bet and a $20 bet gets called at roughly the same frequency, and to whatever extent we lose value the few times they fold we make up for it all the times they call.

Also, and maybe you'll tell me this is terrible, but when I'm making a delayed c-bet, I just tend to size up, to make up for the value we didn't get by not c-betting the flop, and because I think opponents just tend to get stickier facing delayed c-bets.

What became immediately and somewhat painfully obvious to me when he raised is that a line of check flop / small bet turn might induce raises from any draws that checked back flop, especially a combo that may have made a pair or picked up additional outs.

some of this is difficult to explain, some is just too tedious.

i will urge u again to use a few bb and get one month of gtowizard the very basic subscription and you'll see alot of what im telling you.

yeah polar sizing is usually pot+. you can choose whatever u want sizing wise for the most part as long as you play your size well but there isn't really much incentive to bet smaller.

i think even if people don't understand theory they will call 10 more than 20.

you have a hand that can block / block. if you b65 i dont really know what that does for you as you're going to be unable to valuebet on a brick without extreme assumptions re the cappedness of ip

ip just doesn't play many hands preflop unless rec so if you take larger bets you filter them down to good hands way too fast if its a board they aren't hardcapped on. we see overbets much more vs the bb because he is playing a ton of hands and you are meant to polarize more as you're ip

i dont remember what pre config i used to sim this after i posted but glanced over it quickly and mostly everything i said was supported. it defaulted to b25 otr but when i allowed it b10 and b25 it bet something like 2/3 of range. from theory pov you are probably trying to play mdf on the river (defend whatever % doesn't let him bluff with any two cards) with a preference towards defending ax linearly so that he can't merge you with middling ax

in practice i cant give you a great answer of what to do vs a specific opponent but you have great blocker to call a raise (or 3b lol) and he reps not that much and people are going to spaz vs this. i think this would be better if you b33 ott regardless. from non theoretical pov you have a middling stregnth hand with backup equity that will do best forcing weak hands to call. the best way to do that is to bet small. if you think they always fold 22-tt vs b25 or b30 ott i think you have found an incredible exploit but my experience doesnt match that really (if anything i think they will overcall vs block ott). i do think they are inclined to fold something like 77 or whatever here facing 50+ psb. you also have a hand thats an incredibly comfortable continue vs raise ott so we don't really care if we induce raise

Did you not post the tedious stuff? Because that wasn't all that tedious.

There have been a few spots recently, where I feel like I might be bleeding chips.

It's spots where I have a fairly strong hand, but my opponent is taking a polarized line with a merged range of thick but not nutted value, SDV / thin value, and bluffs, forcing me to bluff-catch or hero-fold hands that sort of feel like "correct" hands to bluff-catch, in spots where I beat 1/2 to 2/3 of my opponent's range, and un-block all their bluffs and worse value.

Very often these spots arise when my line or just the situation may have induced aggression from my opponent. That, or I'm just over-estimating their aggressiveness.

Some of it may be projection. I see all the bluffs I'd have if I were V, but I don't see the random trash hand that shouldn't VPIP pre yet shows up as the 2nd nuts on the river.

I'm fine with how I played this pre and on flop. I see the reasoning for preferring a smaller turn bet size. Really wish I would have taken a longer pause on the river, and found the tiny block bet.

Literally in my car this afternoon, screaming at the steering wheel, "Just donk $50, moron!"

i mean alot of people just dont have any bluffs in complex spots

i dont really view the world through that lens though

no the tedious stuff is the math / theory behind different bet sizes. dont have it in me to post an essay

And for that, we thank you.

In all seriousness, it may just be that simple. I think there are spots where I'm seeing things that just aren't there and shouldn't give my opponents anywhere near the respect I've given them.

I keep thinking some V that doesn't fit neatly into a clearly defined mold is going to be capable of finding enough bluffs or not over-playing their hand, or making the correct fold, and over and over reality just punches me in the scrote.

ive told you before you approach some of the low stakes hands like they are high stakes reg battles

you are playing 800 elo chess vs people playing tic tac toe

hope this helps

all sarcasm aside you are misapplying and projecting advanced concepts you don't necessarily understand and haven't studied vs people who don't know or care about them.

either nit it up or get good. the weird purgatory you're in in between the 2 of them isn't the way

Anyway, moving this along...

I can't even argue over any of it. You're dead right.

I've been taking mini-breaks from playing recently, thinking I just need to get my head right. Then I go back and literally make the same mistake I spent three days beating myself up for making three weeks ago.

No, I’m not insulting you. You’re obviously a far more experienced educated & successful NLHE than I am.

But most recs cbet 10-20 on the flop and that’s the end of the hand. Knowledge can be a dangerous thing, and you’ve really brought a big number into play. Gonna be silly to xc 150 and he shows you A5, which is exactly what he’s been repping, and you lost 90bb oop hu with A2s.

So yes, cbet the flop imo. But as played, you’ve got him on a bluff, so don’t be Sammy.

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ugh. Well, you weren’t Sammy. Sorry man. May this be your worst played hand of the year

I like the river block bet line, although I think he probably raises with 55 and the result is basically the same. He might even go bigger, although maybe you find the fold if he raises after you bet?

I think the main advantage of the block bet is that he likely just calls with better Ax, so you save money vs check calling in that scenario. You also squeeze a little value out of Jx and smaller pairs. Good idea sub.

See, I told you all I wasn’t any kind of advanced nlhe player; I never would’ve thought of a 50 block bet on the river.

The protractor comment was made in jest, though it’s certainly a kissing cousin to 800 ELO chess.

I sincerely appreciate ALL the poasters here. You’ve all been a huge help in turning a $7800 downswing into a $8300 and counting upswing that sandwiches a five months break including a $1200 win on the Finals that got me back in action.

Prior to that I was somehow up $5500 since quitting drinking, despite losing at least $3000 on hopeless shove calls, and another grand or two on horribly misplayed pocket aces.

Sub, I love your essays even though they mostly go over my head and gto wizard would be wasted on me for many reasons. But I have no intention of ever playing higher than 2-5, and probably just 1-3 outside of Wendover, depending on the rake.

Hope to see ya’ll in the stud & o8 events this summer!

honestly if you ask specific questions i am happy to elaborate

Bet/fold

Yup. If you're gonna play weak hands like this, you're going to lose sometimes. However, betting hands that are ahead of V's range and folding to raises will be +EV. So just do that. You won't win every hand. Find a way to cope.

So just bet the river. Bet/fold. Problem solved. However, that's not the important takeaway here. I want to highlight how you're saying that lead-checking on a street leaves you "in the blender" without information. Just remember you said that. It's going to come up again later in this post.

First, bet/fold the turn. Bet/fold is the answer to this whole thread. You clowns have been chirping at each other for three pages now when the perfect strategy can be encapsulated in two words. BET/FOLD. But again, I want to highlight how you state that checking leaves you flying blind, without information. (Are you noticing a pattern?)

You said it again!

I'm dead

pre- open to 10 unless straddle is on. playing OOP sucks even at a table of droolers.

flop- you want some Ax in your checking range but use hands like AxKh or AxQh, AxJh or Axss with bdfd.
this hand needs protection. Toss a greenie on flop ($25, idk whre you play so green might not be the 25s)

turn - fast raises are usually value imo but if hes been running good he could have some extra heart combos. I dont understand how it works but just my observations over time that people tend to be more aggressive with draws and bluff slightly more often when running hot.

we lose to the obvious - 55, 54, A5, A4. there are 3 combos of 55, 2 combos of 54s, 1 combo of A5s which gets counterfeit on the river to 0 combos but we dont know that yet on the turn, 1 combo of A4s. so reasonably speaking he will have 7 combos that we are "dead" to. KThh, KQhh, QThh, 76hh, 63hh we beat thats 5 combos. if hes competent as you say, he wont have much more. turn is a clear fold its 80 to win 150 - 53%. we would have to discount his value range, i didnt give him 44 bc i expect a flop bet maybe we discount A4 as well for same reason. thats 6 combos we lose to and 5 combos we beat. we lose 54% so we win 46% getting pot odds of 53%. This doesnt even take into consideration the times he flats AT, A9 etc on the button.

river as played is 100% a check always. if you lead here you never get called by worse. check and let him bluff

I would bet-fold if I block bet.

If I'm supposed to block-bet call, I really don't know what worse hands we're expecting to raise.