Bitcoins - digital currency
At 50% off ATH, do you see this as structural opportunity or just another liquidity cycle playing out?
What would actually invalidate your Bitcoin thesis at this point?
This is exactly what's going on in the market:
Michael Saylor started buying billions in bitcoin weekly at $20k and pumped the price to $125k. He was buying up over 2x the mining supply, pumping the price himself and everyone else buying because he was. He raised money in different ways, selling stock, issuing debt, and then issuing more debt via preferred shares that they must pay 11% interest on.
So he bought over 700k bitcoin doing this and he has just about run out of money. So now, not only is he almost out of money to buy, but he will be forced to sell to cover dividend/debt payments. Don't let anyone fool you and say he isn't selling, because he most certainly will be. Their website even lists "BTC Years of Dividend Coverage". This is how many years they can pay dividends WITH BTC! This means they must sell the BTC to pay the dividends for christ sake.
Yes they have 30 months in dividends in cash, but they want to keep that amount. So it's not a "wait a couple years" thing. They need to actively raise money to keep from dipping into that stash NOW. Currently with their BS skewed calculation of mNAV on MSTR, they claim to still be above 1 so they continue to sell shares to raise money and decrease bitcoin per share, but that avenue is definitely nearing an end. He's stopped selling so much stock to try and keep the mNAV from dropping, and in doing so he's no longer supporting the price of bitcoin so it's tanking. The reverse flywheel is in full motion.
The largest buyer in history, is going to become the largest seller in history. This will be the largest draw down and most pain BTC has ever seen. I was an OG and like many other OG's who could read the writing on the wall, acted accordingly when they saw his ponzi showing cracks.
Isn't it more likely there's a squeeze from the RedditBros?
Nice rebound, but there seems to be resistance at $69,420.
Jane Street juicy. Let's see how this develops.
People going to jail.
I can dream haha.
I thought Tom was pro BTC?
When did you ever doubt bitcoin?
I feel like I remember you being a dev for some stuff on chain even...
Also $120K almost.
It took me about 2-3 days from when I first heard about it and was a full skeptic (but finding it interesting) to thinking it might work out. But didn't have the conviction to buy enough early, nor hold onto it all without selling a few times.
If only we all had thought about it when it was a ridiculous 70 cents and no one used it, and never sold along the way.
Went back and looked at page one... Tom is on there posting and there is a guy running hashes making ~50 BTC a year.... Holy ****.
You both should be billionaires.
If only we all had thought about it when it was a ridiculous 70 cents and no one used it, and never sold along the way.
Went back and looked at page one... Tom is on there posting and there is a guy running hashes making ~50 BTC a year.... Holy ****.
You both should be billionaires.
Not a billionaire, but things could have been a LOT different. But holding is hard!
Back in 2011 when I first found out about Bitcoin, I had a newborn kid, a wife not working, and a decent but not high paying job, and my poker days kind of dried up from side income. Not a lot of just spare change to dedicate to it. So I first started with the maximum $20 buy off of a PayPal seller that sold Bitcoin, and got a measly 20 Bitcoin out of it. I planned to buy more, once I built up trust, but it shut down. I found out about Mt. Gox pretty early, and had the option of wiring money in (yuck, $30-50 fee or something), or setting up Dwolla to link my bank account, send money, then eventually get to Mt. Gox. My plan was to buy $1000 worth of Bitcoin (price was still close to $1 then), so call it 750 Bitcoin. Enough to make some money if it went up to $100 or something crazy. But by the time all that bank linking and transfers happened, the price went to $7. That 750 Bitcoin became like 100. I ended up buying somewhere around 50-60 Bitcoin for $500, hoping it would go down and I could buy $500 more later. It never really dropped.
I started playing some poker for Bitcoin in some really rudimentary sites for it, lost a chunk. I played another site that even had Monopoly for Bitcoin games, heads up. I remember playing 1 BTC games on it. To think of gambling 1 BTC on Monopoly games today. I remember in a 1 BTC BB game of poker and telling the guy "this might be the highest stakes of poker ever" then.
I think I ended up losing down to about 50 or 60 BTC out of my stash of 80. I also made 5 BTC writing an article about gambling and Bitcoin, a pretty low price for what I did.
Figuring I'd probably just keep losing it gambling, and the Mt. Gox crash hit taking it from $30 to $.01 in a few hours, I took the opportunity to cash out at $14 to break even. I figured at best I might turn the 50-60 BTC I had left into maybe $5-10, 000 in a perfect scenario. Nothing life changing.
I got more BTC later doing some consulting and sold it when I was scared the code was going to fork and there might be two Bitcoins. I ended up earning more Bitcoin at a job I had that paid in Bitcoin, and bought some when I sold my house. I still have most of that (although way more was lost gambling than I would have liked).
So best case scenario, I wire that money to Mt. Gox, I get in at $2, I have 500 Bitcoin or so, I forget I have it for 15 years, and I end up with $35 million. A fine outcome for sure. But not a billionaire. The thought of dumping serious money back then into it, say $30, 000 or more, was insane. If I was pretty wealthy back then, maybe it could have been feasible. I was too late to mine huge coin easily (I did mine like .5BTC and blew up my whole computer's GPU in the process). I do have a former colleague that mined 9000 BTC early, and accidentally reformatted the wrong hard drive and poof. I feel for that guy. He's gotten a good amount back since then, but nowhere near 9000.
I'm trying to hold onto what I can for now. Try not to use it to pay off gambling losses, its way too easy to just treat it as fake money when its just a few fractions of a coin, and adds up. I am extremely likely to get laid off/fired in the next few weeks as well, and the limited amount I have will help me cover expenses if it takes me longer to find a job again. Another world and I would have quit this job ages ago and just fucked off and been sitting pretty on Bitcoin. But can't beat myself up too much on it. It's been a ride.
That is an unreal journey.
Playing Monopoly for a BTC a game, in todays terms, sounds like some maximum degen **** lol.
I got lucky I wanted to be able to play poker online when BTC was like ~$1k. Right before the Winklevoss twins had their first shot at an etf denied back in the day. And that lead me to find BTC and this thread. I haven't ever sold bitcoin other than into other coins, all of which have lost compared to BTC and in general were bad bets other than ETH.
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That story was awesome to hear about. The thing I think a lot of people might not realize is that Bitcoin wasn't wrapped up in a pretty bow like it is today. The buying and selling process wasn't so easy or straightforward. I remember a time where I was googling "how to sell Bitcoin" and the answers that were coming up is that I had to personally find someone who would want to buy it from me with real money. Maybe my googling skills weren't up to par, but with that information at the time it was quite a deterrent into getting into bitcoin. I'm not exactly sure what it was that got me back into being curious about it, but if I remember correctly I was looking at making some speculative investments into biotech stocks, but through a comment section on a YouTube video there was a guy who said he made a killing in Bitcoin and other commentors underneath him saying he was full of crap. I was intrigued by his story and that inspired me to look at bitcoin again. Shortly after that, I was on CoinMarketCap and was wondering "what is all this stuff?" At this time it was 2017 and there was a lot more digestible material on Bitcoin for a non-tech savvy person like me.
There was a time when there was this site called BetCoin Poker. I remember playing on there thinking this is pretend money. I had played some heads up poker at what I thought was a 2BTC buyin and ended up 10xing my buyin. I had played a bit more there and ended up with a 50BTC balance. I neglected the account and after a few years I had remembered that I had around a 50BTC balance which would have made me a millionaire. I excitedly went to the site only to discover that it was actually 50mBTC, which is 50 micro bitcoins which on this site meant 1/1,000 of an actual bitcoin so it was like $1000. That was a bit of a bummer, but honestly though, even if it were a million dollars the site probably would have stolen the money because they later proved to be less than scrupulous. I regret defending them in the past on another forum in 2+2, because I thought people were just complaining. I entered into a discussion that I should have just observed. The owners and some of the affiliates turned out to be some pretty awful people, but that is another story.
in 2008 my roomates and i were mining bitcoin on our laptops for the lols
when they died we figured no value in bothering to store info to retain whatever coins we'd earned (never even checked for all i know it was never setup properly was just a fun thing) and tossed them
one of my roomates was making really good money at the time and decided to just buy 1k worth of it on mt gox
he chose the 1k reimbursement, any mention of bitcoin puts him on major life tilt
I first posted in this thread in 2011, bought 5 bitcoin for $80 in early 2013, bought more later and won some on Seals with Clubs. Played as high as 50/100mBTC NL (1 BTC buy-in) when BTC was around $1000 later that year, and think I had a high balance of ~25 BTC. Somehow did not become a millionaire or billionaire.
2010 is still early AF, but at least possible.
But yes, for everyone that wishes they got in early, holding was very difficult.
a) it was technically difficult. there weren't trustworthy sites, wallets, hardware wallets, ETFs
b) given the difficulty, and the fact it was worth so little, it was very easily to just throw away the keys since basically worthless.
c) even if you had good security, if you got in at like $1 and it went up to $20 or whatever the number may be, very difficult to not realize on a 20x or 100x return.
I had some early, lost it to Mt Gox and didn't ever do a redemption claim. That experience put me off crypto until NFTs in early 2021
Wasn't much, maybe 4-5 btc when it was 1500
My funny/sad story. Either in 2012 or 13 I was playing midstakes holdem on a WPN skin and Bitcoin was ~$1200. I requested a $5k withdrawal and go on about my day.
My wife calls me and is like "someone from your poker site just called and they need you to get in touch with them ASAP!". Okaaay, ****, what's this about??? Turns out they fat-fingered and sent me $50k worth of Bitcoin instead of $5k which was roughly 40 something coins.
I call back, they explain the situation, how if I send it back they'll hook me up, if I don't I'm blacklisted from every skin on the network and they may even reach out to other US facing sites. This is my main source of income so I send it back. They give me a $16.50 tourney ticket to a PLO H/L tourney, lololol. In ATH dollars from a few months back it was roughly a $5,000,000 fat-finger that I just shipped back to them for a $16.50 tourney ticket!
Another way I've depressed myself in the past is adding up all the Bitcoin that has passed through my wallet via cashouts. Obv not practical/realistic to think I could've held a ton of it because of life expenses, and I haven't done this exercise in a good while (for my sanity), but we're easily talking nine plus and possibly even ten plus figures total!
I think for almost everyone Bitcoin carries some degree of regret. Of course most regret that they didn't buy sooner but even those that got in very early wish they had bought more or not sold any or something else like losing wallet access.
