NFL Survivor Picks
For those that do not know, in a survivor pool you pick a team who is going to win that week. If your team wins, you sta
Gary A had Patriots available, but went with Bengals instead. A contrarian play that might work out as he will be the only Patriots pick for week 18, who project to be 75%+ win chance as AFC HFA should still be in play.
He has Patriots under his Dylan W entry. Splitting picks to maximize chance of survival and save Pats on one for week 18.
Circa Survivor Week 18 selections are in:
ACCORSI, BRAD LEE, and Caveman6470 did not get through week 17b with the Bucs. That leaves the anti-Cowboys syndicate with GaryA, DYLAN W, and PARTZ1.
GaryA has been on a roller coaster the past few weeks. With Mahomes out and Chiefs throwing in the towel, GaryA's promising lone Chiefs pick in 17a turned sour, and obligated him to join the anti-Cowboys syndicate. I'm guessing he got the short end of the deal, as he was the only member of the team who could not play Commanders (even though only one member actually picked Commanders to reduce Cowboys' EV). Well, the Vikings won, which meant that GaryA's lone Vikings pick could have put him in the final 6 and no split with the syndicate.
EVs for each contestant:
Jags $3.66M (REAL BRO)
Pats $3.34M (GaryA)
Bengals $3.14M (PARTZ1)
Vikings $3.03M (JUICY KEWCHI, KICK YOUR KNEES UP)
Falcons $2.52M (DYLAN W)
As expected, REAL BRO and GaryA are the top 2 in EV, although REAL BRO is the only contestant who can scoop the $18,718,000 prize. JUICY KEWCHI and KICK YOUR KNEES UP share the Vikings, and the anti-Cowboys syndicate almost certainly will split the prize regardless of which member wins. REAL BRO's odds on a scoop are 1 in 312.
GaryA took Bengals in 17b to save Patriots for this week. As Housenuts noted above, that set up syndicate partner DYLAN W to use Patriots in 17b. Unfortunately DYLAN W does not have a strong pick this week. To save Patriots for this week DYLAN W could have taken Saints at 55% or Giants at 58% last week, but I doubt those options were seriously considered by the syndicate. They got a big break when the Falcons defeated the Rams, resulting in a more meaningful game this week against the Saints. The look-ahead line last week had Falcons around -1, which was worse than both Saints and Giants last week. (although going with the Giants could have been bad as KICK YOUR KNEES UP also had Giants)
Beyond the obvious Titans +575 hedge against Jags, REAL BRO is also in position to play some other interesting hedges. That is betting along with the other contestants and boosting his payout if those teams win, and increasing his prize share if those teams lose. Vikings in particular look like a decent hedge play, as his win share goes up at lease 50% with a Vikings loss. The problem being hedging with Vikings -500 is not cheap. Falcons also look promising, as their ML is around -180. That is a relatively inexpensive hedge considering that Falcons losing results in at least a 20% gain in win share.
The others are certainly in position to hedge as well, but because they are not in position to earn an undisputed share, their hedges would be smaller hence less effective.
if another significant deal has been made, I doubt REAL BRO is a part of it, as Jags are the biggest available favorite and only REAL BRO had Jags available. I also doubt JUICY KEWCHI and KICK YOUR KNEES UP are part of a deal, as KICK YOUR KNEES UP had Bengals available this week and both going with Vikings reduces their combined EV about $150k.
Odds of all contestants surviving this week and earning share of the $18,718,000 prize (notwithstanding any deals): 26%, with Falcons the weak link.
PARTZ1 only loser on the board, so 5 shares of $3,743,600 will be paid out to the 5 survivors.
The anti-Cowboys syndicate end up with 2 shares. Unknown what their agreement was, but an equal split amongst the 5 would be $1,497,440. As their individual EVs going to week 17a ranged from $815k to $1.15M, they ended up much better than expected.
Just seeing this thread now, really great stuff pokerhero.
schedule out. time to hit the lab
No idea. Save options so have flexibility when the time comes. I'm sure a few of the spreads will widen. They all look like tight games but they will open up over the course of the season. The key is even if one of them opens to a Td fsvorite or whatever that not everyone left still has them as an option.
