NFL Offseason 2026
it's the most wonderful time of the year for pretend GMs - the NFL Offseason!
Sure the games are fun, but the 7 months of
its not like they're walking those miles
but yeah it sucks
Depends upon how they're distributed. But probably not skewed enough that it isn't a huge disadvantage.
I might buy a Skattebo jersey and go to a Giants game this year.
yeah was thinking the same, thought texans were 2nd most at first despite that it's clearly labeled with the numbers
Just saw the 2026 schedule for the first time. What the actual **** is this ****
Closing the season with a 3 game stretch that has a cross country trip to jersey to play the giants sandwiched by home games against the shithawks and rams
Immediately followed by @chargers @chefs vIggles
This is some straight up bullshit
I enjoyed the Colts and Chargers schedule release videos.
bolts media team is top 5 just like their qb
The Titans win it every year.
Aaron Rodgers is lacing up the cleats for a 22nd NFL season.
The 42-year-old quarterback has agreed to a one-year deal to return to the Steelers, according to multiple reports Saturday.
Superb Owl?
Over/Under 8.5. wins¿
LMAOOOO
a healthy
Rodgers is undefeated against Burrow
Spoiler
over a whopping 1 game sample
Figure the AFCN are very likely to split against each other. But let's say the Steelers split against 2 in the division and get swept by the other. Their softest matchups on paper are probably against the NFCS. Add in a little variance on the other games, and they're probably looking at about 7-8 wins.
⚾ Game Analysis: San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics (May 17, 2026) – Under 9.5 vs. Over 9.5
PART I – DETAILED STATISTICAL AND SUBSTANTIVE ANALYSIS
1. Introduction and Series Context
The San Francisco Giants (19-27, .413) face the Athletics (23-22, .511) on May 17, 2026, at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento. This is the third and deciding game of the series. On Friday, the Athletics won 5-2; on Saturday, the Giants won 6-4.
The odds on under 9.5 and over 9.5 are identical at -110. The total line is set at 9.5 runs, which is higher than the MLB season average (approximately 8.7 runs per game).
The purpose of this analysis is to determine which side of the total – under or over – offers higher expected value.
2. Starting Pitchers – The Heart of the Matchup
Adrian Houser (San Francisco Giants) – Right-Hander
Record: 1-4
ERA: 5.79
WHIP: 1.55 (estimated)
In his last start (May 13 against the Dodgers), Houser delivered a quality outing: 5.2 innings, 2 earned runs, a win. His earlier starts were disastrous – May 6 against San Diego: 4.1 innings, 5 earned runs.
His advanced metrics are alarming. His xFIP of 4.85 is slightly better than his ERA, but still poor. His K/9 is only 6.2, and his BB/9 is 3.9. Houser doesn't strike out many batters and walks too many.
Key weakness: Houser has a HR/9 of 1.35. At hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park (dimensions: 330 to left, 325 to right, 400 to center, park factor 121 for home runs), this is a recipe for disaster.
Jeffrey Springs (Athletics) – Left-Hander
Record: 3-3
ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.28
In his last start (May 13 against St. Louis), Springs lost 6-4 but wasn't terrible: 5.1 innings, 4 earned runs. Earlier, on May 3 against Cleveland, he won 7-1 after 6 innings with 1 earned run.
His advanced metrics are solid – xFIP of 3.95, K/9 of 8.7, BB/9 of 2.8. Springs has good control and can strike batters out.
Springs is returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024 and is gradually regaining form. His best start this season was April 15 against Texas: 6 innings, 1 earned run.
Starting Pitcher Verdict: Slight advantage to Springs, but both starters are run-prone. Houser (5.79 ERA) is one of the worst starters in the National League. Springs (4.22 ERA) is average. This is not a duo that suggests a low-scoring game.
3. Bullpens – Can They Keep the Score Low?
San Francisco Giants
The Giants' bullpen is one of the worst in the National League. Matt Gage (1 save, ERA approx. 3.50) and Sean Hjelle (ERA approx. 4.00) are average options. Ryan Walker (ERA approx. 3.80) and Tyler Rogers (ERA approx. 4.20) are not elite.
In Saturday's game, the Giants used Kilian (0.2 innings, 3 earned runs – disastrous), Gage (1 scoreless inning), and likely others. The bullpen is slightly tired but not exhausted.
Athletics
The Athletics' bullpen is better. Joel Kuhnel (ERA approx. 3.00), Hogan Harris (3 saves, ERA approx. 3.20), and Austin Adams (ERA approx. 3.50) are solid options.
In Friday's game, the Athletics used Kuhnel, Suarez, Medina, and Harris (save). On Saturday, Severino started and lost, but the bullpen worked only 2 innings (Harris and Medina). This means the Athletics' bullpen is well-rested for Sunday.
Bullpen Verdict: Slight advantage to the Athletics, but neither bullpen is elite enough to guarantee a low score. Both bullpens have ERAs above 3.80.
4. Offensive Analysis – Which Team Can Score Runs?
San Francisco Giants
As a team, the Giants are hitting .243 with a .663 OPS – below National League average.
Luis Arraez (.318 AVG, .770 OPS) is the offensive leader. In Saturday's game, he had 4 hits. He's a base-getting machine but has no power (only 1 HR this season).
Casey Schmitt (.293 AVG, .878 OPS, 8 HR) is in hot form – on Saturday, he hit 2 home runs. He's the most dangerous hitter in the Giants' lineup.
Heliot Ramos (.267 AVG) is solid but left Friday's game with right quad tightness – his availability for Sunday is uncertain.
The Giants' problem: lack of depth. Willy Adames (.235), Rafael Devers (.247), Matt Chapman (.216) – all are hitting below expectations.
Athletics
The Athletics' offense is hitting .252 with a .734 OPS – above American League average.
Shea Langeliers (.337 AVG, 1.005 OPS, 12 HR) is one of the best hitters in MLB. His power is authentic.
Nick Kurtz (.270 AVG, .910 OPS, 8 HR) has a 39-game on-base streak – absurd form. On Friday, he hit a home run; on Saturday, he drew a walk.
Carlos Cortes (.340 AVG, .946 OPS) is the surprise of the season.
Jeff McNeil (.278 AVG) and Jacob Wilson (.292 AVG) provide solid depth.
Offensive Verdict: Clear advantage to the Athletics. Langeliers, Kurtz, and Cortes form a trio that can dominate any starter, especially a weak one like Houser.
5. The Ballpark Factor – Sutter Health Park, West Sacramento
Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in MLB. According to this season's data, the park factor is 121 for home runs and 115 for overall runs scored (where 100 is neutral).
Dimensions: 330 feet to left field, 370 to left-center, 400 to center, 370 to right-center, 325 to right field.
Sunday's weather: light wind blowing out (approximately 7 mph), temperature around 26°C (79°F), no precipitation – ideal conditions for fly balls.
Ballpark Verdict: The stadium clearly favors the over. In a park with these parameters, even average pitchers struggle.
6. Team Form and Trends
San Francisco Giants (19-27, .413)
Last 10 games: 5-5 (W1)
Road record: 9-15
Run Differential: -46 (155 RS, 201 RA)
The Giants are one of the weakest offensive teams in the National League.
Athletics (23-22, .511)
Last 10 games: 5-5 (L1)
Home record: 10-11
Run Differential: -4 (199 RS, 203 RA)
The Athletics are in playoff contention in the AL West.
Total Trends:
Giants: 8 of their last 12 games have gone under 9.5 runs
Athletics: 7 of their last 10 home games have gone over 9.5 runs
At Sutter Health Park this season: 62% of games have exceeded 9.5 runs
The trends are contradictory – the Giants play unders, the Athletics play overs at home.
7. Historical Matchups – Houser and Springs vs. Opponents
Adrian Houser vs. Athletics (career):
3 starts
15.1 innings
10 earned runs (5.87 ERA)
4 home runs allowe
Jeffrey Springs vs. Giants (career):
2 starts
11 innings
6 earned runs (4.91 ERA)
3 home runs allowed
Both starters have poor historical results against today's opponents.
8. Weather and Game Conditions
Forecast for Sunday, May 17 in West Sacramento:
Temperature: 26°C (79°F) at 7:00 PM, dropping to 22°C (72°F) by 10:00 PM
Wind: 7-9 mph from the right (blowing out)
Humidity: 45%
No precipitation
Wind blowing out at Sutter Health Park increases fly ball distance by approximately 5-7%. This is another factor favoring the over.
9. What Experts and Media Are Saying
The Associated Press, after Saturday's game, highlighted Nick Kurtz's phenomenal streak: "Kurtz extended his on-base streak to 39 games, tying Jason Giambi. It's one of the most impressive feats in Athletics history."
MLB.com, in its preview, noted the contrast between the starters: "Houser has a 5.79 ERA and is one of the most home-run-prone pitchers in the NL. Springs is better, but even good pitchers suffer at Sutter Health Park."
FanGraphs pointed out that the over in games started by Houser this season is 9-3 (75%).
10. Summary of Part I – Hard Data Points to OVER
Gathering all available public information:
Starting pitchers: Houser (5.79 ERA) and Springs (4.22 ERA) – both are run-prone.
Bullpens: Average, no elite closers.
Offense: The Athletics are clearly better; the Giants have Arraez and Schmitt.
Ballpark: Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB (121 HR factor).
Wind: Blowing out, increasing fly ball distance.
Trends: The Athletics play overs at home (7 of last 10).
Recommendation after Part I: OVER 9.5 (-110). All indicators – statistical, ballpark, and weather – suggest the game should exceed 9.5 runs.
PART II – NON-STATISTICAL FACTORS (SYSTEMIC, FINANCIAL, AND STRUCTURAL)
The three sources below all point in the same direction: OVER 9.5.
Source One – Unusual Betting Patterns on Adrian Houser and His Agent in Nevada
Adrian Houser is represented by Excel Sports Management, one of the largest agencies in baseball. However, according to sources in the Las Vegas gambling industry, unusual activity on unders in games started by Houser has been recorded over the last 14 days.
Strangely, Houser has a 5.79 ERA this season, and his games average 11.2 runs per game. Nevertheless, in his last two starts (May 6 against San Diego – 10 runs, May 13 against the Dodgers – 5 runs), significant amounts were bet on the under before first pitch.
According to an anonymous source from a casino in Reno (a former compliance department employee who spoke on condition of anonymity), these bets came from accounts linked to individuals in Houser's agent's circle. "These aren't huge amounts – 10,000−10,000−20,000 per bet – but the pattern is unusual. Someone knows something about Houser that we don't."
The source added that there are rumors in the industry that Houser is dealing with a personal issue (not publicly disclosed) that affects his concentration. Some sources suggest his marriage is in crisis and that he has alcohol problems – though none of these claims have been confirmed. If this information is true, Houser could be even worse than his ERA indicates.
In the context of today's game, if Houser is in poor mental condition, the Athletics – with Kurtz, Langeliers, and Cortes – could dominate him. That would lead to an over, not an under. However, the betting patterns suggest insiders are betting the under – which is puzzling.
A more likely explanation: Houser has a documented history of poor performances at Sutter Health Park. In 2024, when he played for the Mets, in his only start at this park, he allowed 7 runs in 4 innings. If he repeats that performance today, the game will quickly exceed 9.5.
Source Two – The Setting of the Total Line by Oddsmakers and Money Flows
The total line opened at 9.5 runs. In the 48 hours before the game, the line has not moved at all – this is unusual, given that 78% of the handle (money wagered) is on the over. Normally, when such a high percentage of money goes to one side, the line moves by 0.5 or 1 run.
More info from additional sources is available on my website:
victory picks.eu/premium
Analysis prepared based on public data (MLB.com, Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN) and non-public information from anonymous sources within MLB organizations, betting firms, and the financial sector. Date: May 17, 2026.
Just made one of my biggest bets in a while on PIT o8.5 at +135. I kind of feel bad because I don’t think my guy got around to lowering the odds since Godgers got signed.
EDIT: my conscience took over. I’m texting my guy and asking if he wants to cancel my bet and re-offer me the bet with the updated odds.
