Israel/Palestine thread
Think this merits its own thread...
Discuss my fellow 2+2ers..
AM YISRAEL CHAI.
[QUOTE=Crossnerd]
People in my Twitter feed are pointing out the person in the video is a Bosnian Muslim, whose family emigrated to "Palestine" from Europe around the same time as Zionists. So basically unless your worldview is that anyone who is a Muslim is indigenous to anywhere Muslims conquered over the 1400 years of Muslim conquest, this person has less of a claim of indigeneity than even
Flimsy is the word. Better just to shut down the whole of Israel and Palestine and give everyone US passports, passage and compensation where needed. It’s the only country large enough and toxic enough to take in that many extremists without it making much of a difference.
For a 1961 article a guy examined the transcripts of Arab radio broadcasts during the Nakba. He destroyed the claim that Arab leaders told the Palestinians to leave.
From Erskine Childers, “The Other Exodus”, The Spectator, 12 May 1961, p. 8:
"There was not a single order, or appeal, or suggestion about evacuation from Palestine from any Arab radio station, inside or outside Palestine, in 1948. There is repeated monitored record of Arab appeals, even flat orders, to the civilians of Palestine to stay put. To select only two examples: on April 4, as the first great wave of flight began, Damascus Radio broadcast an appeal to everyone to stay at their homes and jobs. On April 24, with the exodus now a flood, Palestine Arab leaders warned that 'Certain elements and Jewish agents are spreading defeatist news to create chaos and panic among the peaceful population. Some cowards are deserting their houses, villages or cities. . . . Zionist agents and corrupt cowards will be severely punished [Al-Inqaz, the Arab Liberation Radio, at 1200 hours].
The health ministry run by Hamas reports 72k dead. The UN an organization you all reference quite often reports around the same amounts of deaths.
It's very funny how these guys go "the health ministry RUN BY HAMAS" and then admit that these numbers are in line with what other agencies are reporting.
I found the source of this claim. Does this look like a credible methodology for estimating death toll?
IMPOSED DEPRIVATION AND GAZA’S DEATH TOLL
When deaths resulting from imposed deprivation (indirect deaths) are factored into mortality data, the total figures will be higher than those from only violent deaths (direct deaths). Eminent epidemiologist Professor Devi Sridhar (chair of Global Health, University of Edinburgh) reported in an article in The Guardian a ‘conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death’. Assuming that deaths from deprivation were four times the violent deaths, then the 136,000 violent deaths after 15.5 months of killing (25 April 2025) would imply 544,000 Gaza deaths from imposed deprivation, and that the total Gazan death toll would accordingly be 136,000 violent deaths plus 544,000 from imposed deprivation, leading to a staggering total of 680,000 deaths by 25 April 2025. Most of these victims, as indicated in earlier counts by the Ministry of Health are women and children.
Shocking in its enormity, the figure of 680,000 is derived from calculations based on other conflicts around the world. The UNHCR, Reword Global Law and Policy Database has found that the ratio of indirect deaths (non-violent deaths from imposed deprivation) to direct deaths (violent deaths) ranges from about two to 16 in a variety of wars in recent decades. Indeed, estimates of violent deaths and non-violent deaths from deprivation drawn from UN Population Division data, reveal direct deaths in the Iraq War (2003-2011) of 1.5 million and indirect deaths of 1.2 million, yielding a total of around 2.7 million deaths, a ratio of 1.5:1.2. The ratio of direct deaths/indirect deaths in the Afghan War (2001–2021) is estimated to be 0.4 million/6.4 million, that is deaths from deprivation 16 times the death toll of violent deaths.
The estimate of 680,000 Gazan deaths therefore is about 12 to 14 times greater than the death toll of about 50–55,000 presently reported by nearly all Western mainstream media. Among the most ‘at risk’ people in violent conflicts are children—and Gaza is no exception. Exhaustive analysis of avoidable deaths from deprivation in all countries from 1950 onwards reveals that under-five-year-old infant deaths make up about 70 per cent of avoidable deaths in impoverished countries. (In early May 2024 a joint study by the UN Development Programme and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia reported that the poverty rate in Gaza—already chronic—surged to 58.4 per cent since the 7 October 2023. Since then, conditions have become much worse). As of Anzac Day 2025 (25 April), the 544,000 Gaza deaths from violent and imposed deprivation included about 380,000 under-five infant deaths. Infants are highly vulnerable—thus, for example, breast feeding would be highly problematic for highly traumatized Gaza mothers substantially denied water, food, shelter, hygiene, baby bottles, baby formula, electricity, sanitation and other life-sustaining requisites demanded of the occupying power, as stated in Articles 55 and 56 of the Fourth Geneva Convention.
Assuming that 33 per cent of the violent Gaza deaths were children, 21 per cent women and 46 per cent, men (according to the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor), and that the same proportions obtain for the deprivation-based deaths of non-infant children, women and men, then the 680,000 Gazans killed by violence and imposed deprivation by 25 April 2025 included about 380,000 under-five-year-old infants, 479,000 children in total, 63,000 women and 138,000 men.
This isn’t a model so much as it is just saying random numbers and coming to a salacious conclusion.
If you guys want to say 680k is credible based on bodies being under the ruins, you don’t get to appeal to this number, because it’s based on the assumption of 4:1 INDIRECT deaths and also takes at face value the Lancet figure.
I found the source of this claim. Does this look like a credible methodology for estimating death toll?
Seems reasonable? Do you have a specific critique of the methodology, or are you just doing kneejerk Holocaut denial?
This isn’t a model so much as it is just saying random numbers and coming to a salacious conclusion.
It very clearly is not "random numbers, " and the rationale behind the conclusion is well-articulated.
If you guys want to say 680k is credible based on bodies being under the ruins, you don’t get to appeal to this number, because it’s based on the assumption of 4:1 INDIRECT deaths and also takes at face value the Lancet figure.
It very clearly does not "take at face value the Lancet figure, " as anyone literate can see for themselves. You guys are getting more and more desperate.
It's very funny how these guys go "the health ministry RUN BY HAMAS" and then admit that these numbers are in line with what other agencies are reporting.
they take the KHamas numbers bc its so low. it doesnt count those killed by disease, starvation, torture, and those missing. like the 2 blindfolded women last seen holding hands in fear while the Israelis gleefully posed for pictures next to them before executing them. probably raping them first bc thats what the IDF has always done.
Not very likely. That figure was arrived at simply by quadrupling the max for violent deaths on the basis of an unevidenced guess. The Lancet study by Spagat et al says that this is 'without empirical foundation.' Instead, the Lancet study suggests 8,540 'excess' non-violent deaths to add to the violent deaths (up to 75,000, but could be less).
8,540 seems very low, given the factors at work (lack of water, power, medicine and nutrition), but, if a third of the pre-war population had in fact died (as the 680,000 figure entails), we would probably have heard more about it, not least from Hamas and the UN.
but, if a third of the pre-war population had in fact died (as the 680, 000 figure entails), we would probably have heard more about it, not least from Hamas and the UN.
LOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLL
Seems reasonable Do you have a specific critique of the methodology, or are you just doing kneejerk Holocaut denial
Yes, I think taking a statement from someone at face value without demonstrating the rationale behind the claim and using that to multiply a death toll number that has not even been verified to be correct that is on the higher end is very misleading.
At the very least acting like 680,000 is an actual figure that has been substantiated rather than an extremely rough estimate, one that makes assumptions on the higher end, is very misleading. Are you saying it’s holocaust denial to say that the figure is not 680k.
It very clearly is not "random numbers, " and the rationale behind the conclusion is well-articulated.
Oh yeah, you think there was a well-articulated argument for just 4xing the highest end of the estimated death toll. What exactly can you articulate as the rationale?
they take the KHamas numbers bc its so low. it doesnt count those killed by disease, starvation, torture, and those missing. like the 2 blindfolded women last seen holding hands in fear while the Israelis gleefully posed for pictures next to them before executing them. probably raping them first bc thats what the IDF has always done.
I’m open to indirect death toll figures, if they are well-articulated.
I wonder how many people in Gaza would have been killed if Hamas chose not to attack on Oct 7th.
I wonder how many people in Gaza would have been killed if Hamas chose not to attack on Oct 7th.
Oct 7th would never have happened if Israel hadn't severely abused millions of captive Palestinians for decades on end.
Of course, anybody who knows a bit about this issue knows that the Palestinians held multiple, days-long unarmed protests prior to Oct 7th, protests in which they got shot at by lethal and non-lethal arms by various Israeli murderers. That didn't work. What else would you expect to happen afterwards?
Forget any discussion of morality for a second. It's a feature of humanity that if you oppress, victimize, and murder any group severely enough and for long enough, they will eventually "snap" and react violently, including by committing atrocities against innocents. No number of scoldy posts from American perverts will ever change that.
Again, this is not what the study does, and in fact it critiques the Lancet figure.
Oh yeah, you think there was a well-articulated argument for just 4xing the highest end of the estimated death toll. What exactly can you articulate as the rationale?
My brother in Christ, you can read the study for yourself, they explain their methods. Also, 4x wouldn't even be a particularly high estimate, casualties from the Afghan war we in the 16x range. Again, you could actually read the study and engage with it instead of just knee-jerk denying inconvenient facts.
I wonder how many people in Gaza would have been killed if Hamas chose not to attack on Oct 7th.
So how many more people need to be slaughtered to compensate for Oct. 7? Give us an order-of-magnitude estimate.
Again, this is not what the study does, and in fact it critiques the Lancet figure. My brother in Christ, you can read the study for yourself, they explain their methods. Also, 4x wouldn't even be a particularly high estimate, casualties from the Afghan war we in the 16x range. Again, you could actually read the study and engage with it instead of just knee-jerk denying inconve
You guys like to call everything a study, even if it’s not even close to the rigor of academic studies.This is basically a blog post. It’s not peer-reviewed and the methodology is crap. If you want to deny that, please provide arguments instead of begging the question.
So once again, no actual engagement with the study or any meaningful critique of the methodology. The numbers make Israel look barbaric, so you fell compelled to lie and hand-wave away a mass slaughter.
500k? 1M? all 2M?, will that satisfy Israel's need for revenge?
So once again, no actual engagement with the study or any meaningful critique of the methodology. The numbers make Israel look barbaric, so you fell compelled to lie and hand-wave away a mass slaughter.
Define what engagement is, because I engaged with the quoted passage. They appealed to someone saying it would be 4:1 but didn’t justify the number, and I also pointed out that stating a single number rather than a range is misleading. They also base their figures on the Lancet journal letter to the editor, which also didn’t justify its numbers.
All this was pointed out in previous posts, so I certainly engaged with the “study” (it’s not a study)
So once again, no actual engagement with the study or any meaningful critique of the methodology. The numbers make Israel look barbaric, so you fell compelled to lie and hand-wave away a mass slaughter.
You’ve been hypnotized by the numbers but don’t have any understanding of the context surrounding them.
Oct 7th would never have happened if Israel hadn't severely abused millions of captive Palestinians for decades on end. Of course, anybody who knows a bit about this issue knows that the Palestinians held multiple, days-long unarmed protests prior to Oct 7th, protests in which they got shot at by lethal and non-lethal arms by various Israeli murderers. That didn't work. What
Ironically Oct 7th wasn’t about how “poorly” they were treated. It all had to do with the Al Aqsa mosque. They felt it was under threat. I can tell you it is definitely under threat now.
