Bitcoins - digital currency
Way easier to travel with BTC than a PC.
I have a goofy strategy that is mostly for fun. I sold some Bitcoin at $93k (the sun is 93 million miles away from the earth so that's why I chose that number). Every time it halves I buy Bitcoin with half the supply I sold. Every time Bitcoin price doubles, I sell some of my supply. Then there is my hodl coins which is seperate from my fun coins which I never sell. There is a whole system that I put on an excel spreadsheet, but that's the gist of it. I think I made a post about it a long time ago in here, but I have modified it since then. Basically on a psychological level, I don't mind Bitcoin dropping or mooning. Either way I feel good about it.
Three years up, one year bear market. BTC bottomed in November 2022 though the June low wasn't far off it. It was an 80 percent drawdown like the prior cycles.
its currently down a little over 50 percent
60k party
59 party
Calendar years are arbitrary boundaries of course, and the "four year cycle" isn't exactly four years. And 2025 saw an ATH which isn't captured by this chart.
At a very basic analysis level, the peak to bottom of each cycle is diminishing but hasn't deviated significantly.
Nov, 2013 to Jan, 2015, it decreased by roughly 87%.
Dec, 2017 to Dec, 2018, it decreased by roughly 84%.
Nov, 2021 to Nov, 2022, it decreased by roughly 78%.
I think it's reasonable for this drawdown to peak at a decrease of somewhere between 70% to 75%, plus or minus a few percentage points. If so, that projects a bottom range of between $31.5k-$38k.
Oct, 2025 peaked at price of $126k and just set a new bottom of around $59k, for a current peak drawdown of 53%. This recent drawdown also marked a big milestone of each bear market, which is reaching the 200W MA. Though, it's not uncommon for BTC to dip below that average, even if for a short period of time, during bear markets.
BTC also typically goes below both the realized price and the balanced price during bear markets. The realized price is defined by the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation. The balanced price is defined by the difference between realized price and transferred price. Transferred price is similar to realized price but also adds a variable for how often coins are moved.
The current realized price is $53k. The current balanced price is $39k.
I don't think the current low will be the final cycle low. How much lower we go is anyone's best educated guess, but $30k-$40k looks pretty reasonable based on history. And if we don't reach all the way below $40k, I'd expect the next likely range to be a low within $40k-$50k range.
40k about as low as my people saying. Maybe wick 39. Who knows, bunch of voodoo magic. But ya prepared for a crabby/down market for up to another 18 months.
The four year cycle is still clearly visible, but a bit muted, as I expected a while back. The last bottom was deeper than expected, and the last peak not as high. And this stock to flow model is definitely coming up short.
At a very basic analysis level, the peak to bottom of each cycle is diminishing but hasn't deviated significantly. Nov, 2013 to Jan, 2015, it decreased by roughly 87%.Dec, 2017 to Dec, 2018, it decreased by roughly 84%.Nov, 2021 to Nov, 2022, it decreased by roughly 78%.I think it's reasonable for this drawdown to peak at a decrease of somewhere between 70% to 75%, plus or min
I don't think analyzing previous BTC trends is relevant to today - sure you can find patterns but every year is different for every traded asset. BTC of all assets is the hardest to chart - professional traders have challenges predicting even the mag 7 stocks, so thinking you can chart an asset that has nothing to do with a business but solely supply and demand is asking a lot.
And yet, BTC is doing exactly what it always does at this point of the cycle. The parallels are pretty insane. It’ll probably break one day, but it isn’t showing any signs of that currently.
More to the uncanny BTC cycle trends. This video isn’t about predicting the price cycle low, but it’s more about when you can reasonably expect it to occur and what to look for in price action.
You're wrong. It's pretty easy to see. Obviously things can change, but why bet against what's been happening the entire history of the asset? It'll be pretty clear if price action starts to diverge from the trend.
And I'm not talking about trying to predict the hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, or even quarterly. But we're exactly where you'd expect the price action to be based on all post-halving midterm election year trends.
If Bitcoin disappeared tomorrow, how would the world change ?
In my opinion, not at all. The world doesn't need bitcoin. It has no important fundamental value. People would still be able to buy and sell things that do matter.
That's what makes it different than other asset classes. It's completely unnecessary. It's a passing fad.
Lmao, yes we all know your opinion. That response has absolutely nothing to do with what I posted. It's here today. It's being traded today. Its price action is acting like it always does at this point in the cycle. BTC price action doesn't care that you don't think the asset is necessary. Necessity is not what is being discussed.
You're wrong. It's pretty easy to see. Obviously things can change, but why bet against what's been happening the entire history of the asset? It'll be pretty clear if price action starts to diverge from the trend. And I'm not talking about trying to predict the hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, or even quarterly. But we're exactly where you'd expect the price action to be b
One of the most important things I learned in college is that the only present trend that continues is that present trends eventually don't.
Also, sample size.
I acknowledged that as a possibility in the post you quoted. I'm not blind to the fact that something isn't guaranteed because it happened previously.
But I'll continue to follow the trend while BTC is very clearly still following the trend. It's not like you have to squint to see it. It's very apparent. BTC is basically spot on to expected price movement at this point in the cycle, based on the historical price action.
If the trend ever changes, I'll be willing to adjust to new information. And if the trend does eventually change, I'd bet on it being to the upside rather than the downside. But hey, everyone can make their own financial decisions. I'm just here because I have conviction and enjoy discussing it.
And naysayers always says sample size, yet here we still are 17.5 years later working through our fourth 4 year cycle. You know what also has plenty of evidence of operating on a loose 4 year cycle? The stock market.
BTC price action doesn't care that you don't think the asset is necessary. Necessity is not what is being discussed.
I agree that my personal opinion is not determinative of BTC's price.
My opinion is only relevant if it reveals some greater and universal underlying truth. In this case, that truth would be the understanding that almost no one believes BTC is necessary.
If no one is able to make a good case for why BTC is (or will become) necessary, then that is an indicator of its destiny.
You can't eat a bitcoin. You can't build something from it. It doesn't provide answers to important questions. It's just a bit of encrypted electricity.
If Bitcoin disappeared tomorrow, how would the world change ?
In my opinion, not at all. The world doesn't need bitcoin. It has no important fundamental value. People would still be able to buy and sell things that do matter.
That's what makes it different than other asset classes. It's completely unnecessary. It's a passing fad.
LOL ... comparing bitcoin to the internet.
The internet has replaced the file cabinet. It has replaced the road map. It has replaced the checkbook. It has replaced the need for textbooks including encyclopedias and dictionaries... It has significantly diminished the demand for movie theaters. It has replaced the need to make phone calls to order goods and services. It has largely replaced the postage stamp.
What does bitcoin replace ?
LOL ... comparing bitcoin to the internet. The internet has replaced the file cabinet. It has replaced the road map. It has replaced the checkbook. It has replaced the need for textbooks including encyclopedias and dictionaries... It has significantly diminished the demand for movie theaters. It has replaced the need to make phone calls to order goods and services. It has large
Gold.
Fiat money.
Banks.
Payment processors.
...
Oh really!! When does BTC replace those things ?
In the last year, BTC is down 40% while gold is up 30%.
Gold has widespread industrial utility. It's a real physical thing with properties including conductivity, malleability and corrosion resistance.
