USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
A possible counter-question could be, if there is a ceasefire, why will Israel not cease firing?
A US CENTCOM spox said 'Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz' and 'traffic is flowing normally', but, given the lack of US resolve to commit naval and air assets to interdict IRGC boats and drones and missile sites, that seems like big talk. It seems fairly obvious that Iran and Israel will keep claiming violations and throwing strops. As the 'deal' is such a foolish one,
We seemed to have reached the stage where iran insist the straits are closed and trump insists they are open.
US denies Iran's claim to have closed Strait of Hormuz over Israeli attacks in Lebanon
A possible counter-question could be, if there is a ceasefire, why will Israel not cease firing?
In international relations, you don’t have to rip up a treaty just because there is a breach. That’s a choice on their part.
Furthermore it’s not clear that Israel was the one that violated the ceasefire, as it seems it was Hezbollah that engaged in attacks on the IDF in both the buffer zone in Lebanon and in Israel.
Did they rip it up? They enacted a consequence afaik. I don’t really know how this agreement actually works tho.
You’ll have to excuse me for not taking the Jerusalem Post account at face value.
A possible counter-question could be, if there is a ceasefire, why will Israel not cease firing?
1. because that's what they do
2. they're obviously trying to get usa back to attacking iran. would be hilarious if the yanks just walk away for once and leave them on their own. they won't, but a girl can dream...
What is happening is that Israel's actions are actually putting the IRGC between a rock and a hard place. The GCC's are actually giving Iran a lot of money right now, and promising much much more. And it is money Iran desperately needs, as it is broke.
But at the same time, Iran has no real capacity to directly respond to Israel's actions against Hezbollah. Their long range missile infrastructure has been devastated too much to really bother Israel, and their drones were never really much of a threat. They take so long to get there, Israel has plenty of time to knock them out. Plus, IF they attack Israel directly they know Israel is locked, loaded and ready to respond overwhelmingly. And they have no air defense to do anything about it.
So Iran's only real option is to attack the GCCs, and their oil. They are close enough Iran still has the capacity to attack them. But these are the people paying them right now. So they have to weigh the cost/benefit of trying to save Hezbollah by threatening/attacking the GCCs and their oil AND keeping GCC money coming in.
I know it is fun to mock Trump for promising Iran so much much money (mostly from the GCCs). But at the same time, this actually puts constrains on Iran's belligerence, as they can only really effectively attack the people who are promising them so much money not to attack them.
We dont really appreciate how big a strategic problem Hezbollah being defenestrated by the IDF has been for Iran.
Hezbollah is supposed to be a powerful deterrent against Israel, where Lebanese Shiite Arabs are supposed to sacrifice themselves for the benefit of The Regime. And towards this end the IRGC has put in a tremendous amount of resources to build them up.
Instead, Hezbollah has shown to be no match for Israel and is turning into a liability and massive money/resource/leverage sink for Iran, as Iran is having to pay tremendous costs to try to keep them afloat, with no real returns on their investment.
In the last 2 years Hamas turned into such a liability that was providing nothing back in return that Iran basically dumped them. Israel's objective is to make it so costly for Iran to keep Hezbollah alive that the IRGC decides it isn't worth it and dumps them too.
And Trump/GCCs are offering the carrot for Iran to dump Hezbollah, by promising to pay to rebuild the country. The world is more than willing to let Iran be a functional, prosperous country. They just have to dump their dumb Revolution and proxies in return.
The $1 billion question that we are all trying to figure out is who is actually running Iran and what are their priorities, rebuilding the country or continuing the Islamic Revolution?
It is also notable how little China is trying to help Russia and Iran right now. Could be an indication of Xi pragmatically deciding it is time to fold what has turned into a couple bad hands and move on to the next game.
Meanwhile, Canada has built and paid for a new bridge (the Gordie Howe Bridge) between Windsor and Detroit, and Trump won't allow it to open because the US gets no tolls until the bridge is paid for (once Canada recoups the construction and maintenance costs then Michigan gets 50% of the tolls).How can Trump be upset over a free bridge??? His rich donor buddy owns the existing
No. That is just Trump being corrupt and Canada paying for it.
Sorry about that.
Silver lining is I dont think even Vance (worst case scenario) would consider continuing this nonsense once Trump is gone, so just have to wait 2 more years.
What I find funny about all the pundits and the price of oil. How many times did we hear if this drags on another few weeks we could see oil at $150-$200 a barrel and it will take years for Oil to ever get back to the rate prior to the war. Yet oil never hit those marks and the deal that is brokered is a joke yet Oil closed yesterday what it was before the war
Exxon and Chevron CEOs explained this a few weeks ago and Trump reiterated it when he signed the MOU. The problem was going to be when the reserves got depleted. The straight is mostly open now
Oil prices fell about 4% Wednesday as tankers continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that the worst of the Middle East supply disruption is over.
Iran's sanctions also got lifted and they are now selling their oil.
Nothing funny about it, it's pretty simple and it's why Trump was desperate to do almost anything to get the Strait open
Interesting claim: the war against Iran is about replacing the Strait of Hormuz with an Israel-terminus rail and pipeline network.
Interesting claim: the war against Iran is about replacing the Strait of Hormuz with an Israel-terminus rail and pipeline network.
You people have wild imaginations. It’s amazing how hatred can corrupt the mind.
Isn’t it nice not to have SRM’s rage filled no content posts in here the last few days. Also, not having the Geezer sycophant, terrible attempt at humor posts being gone is a tremendous plus.
Exxon and Chevron CEOs explained this a few weeks ago and Trump reiterated it when he signed the MOU. The problem was going to be when the reserves got depleted. The straight is mostly open nowOil prices fell about 4% Wednesday as tankers continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that the worst of the Middle East supply disruption is over.Iran's sanctions also go
Speaking of Exxon and Chevron CEOs, did you see Trump berating them for propping up the price of gas? Remember the outrage from Republicans every time dems suggested this same thing? Good times.
Speaking of Exxon and Chevron CEOs, did you see Trump berating them for propping up the price of gas? Remember the outrage from Republicans every time dems suggested this same thing? Good times.
Hey i don’t post in golf threads but nice round the other day 😀
No I don’t remember republican outrage or ever think about catching them being hypocrites. They don’t gaf, all they want is Power.
Interesting claim: the war against Iran is about replacing the Strait of Hormuz with an Israel-terminus rail and pipeline network.
Lmao idk why bill even bothers posting mondoweiss articles. Got any Fox News articles you wanna share while you’re at it? Maybe some Infowars podcasts.
Isn’t it nice not to have SRM’s rage filled no content posts in here the last few days. Also, not having the Geezer sycophant, terrible attempt at humor posts being gone is a tremendous plus.
Is Elway still in a coma?
How's it going over at UP? (Or is you posting there just another one of your lies?)
How much imagination did the Elway account require? Was it more or less than your other alts?
I think I speak for everyone that this troll shtick has worn its welcome out. It’s not fair to those who just want to talk about the subject in the thread. You can have your fun in the Moderation thread since anything goes there. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
I think I speak for everyone that this troll shtick has worn its welcome out. It’s not fair to those who just want to talk about the subject in the thread. You can have your fun in the Moderation thread since anything goes there. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
You don’t speak for anyone at all. Release the elway files!!!
I think I speak for everyone that this troll shtick has worn its welcome out. It’s not fair to those who just want to talk about the subject in the thread. You can have your fun in the Moderation thread since anything goes there. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
The current subject of the thread is your retaadation.
I think I speak for everyone that this troll shtick has worn its welcome out. It’s not fair to those who just want to talk about the subject in the thread. You can have your fun in the Moderation thread since anything goes there. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Are you agreeing to actually explain the situation in the mod thread? Because that’s all you’ve had to do this entire time. It would have been dropped by now had you copped immediately.
People keep pestering you because you’ve refused to answer any questions about why you did it. Those acting childish get treated childishly.
