USA Goes to War Against Iran

I dont think the Dems stop this. certainly their rhetoric doesnt indicate they will.

it ends when the US gets defeated enough to feel some pain. or if the liberals in Iran are able to get enough control to submit to their women and oil to the Epstein class.

Awesome. Nice to be back in power (if yer a Dem)

Amplify said it will stop when Trump is out of power. I was disagreeing.

Dems have power only because repubs just refuse to govern.

Iran doesn't seem too swift.

They had/have some things in their favour.

The US started the initial attack and it was unpopular with many countries (not supported even verbally by NATO) and was seen in many circles as an attack based on Israel's urging. So, Iran had sympathy in some circles, and the US was seen as the bully villain.

After the major attacks Trump was in such a bad spot that he wanted nothing more than to get the straight open and to get out of town. The leverage that Iran had because of this was evident. Trump was treating Iran with more reverence than most of the USA's allies, ffs. Trump negotiated a deal that was highly favourable to Iran, and if Iran was smart, they could have actually worked with Oman to administer a small service toll on the strait. Enough $$ to give Iran a bit of a win, but not enough to cause the shipping industry fits.. (They'd just pass this on to the customers anyway).

Plus Iran was going to get money unfrozen, they were going to keep existing ballistic capacity (whatever was left). Also, because Trump wanted no part of a war, Iran could have probably leveraged some more things.

Iran seemed to be in the best "post-attack" position they could possibly be in. Trump on his knees and allowing Iran to jerk him around at every turn. Iran seemed to take pleasure in denouncing as incorrect every single thing Trump said about the negotiations and/or the MOU.

But, it seemed like Iran was never serious about using their leverage to their advantage.

Then Iran decided that it would be a good time to fire at some ships that were using the Oman route. Sorry Iran, but zero world sympathy shooting at ships that are not even crossing on what you claim to be your half of the straight (which isn't really your half at all anyway). So, Iran leaves the US with no choice but to respond in force, and globally it seems that many countries now think Iran deserved the response.

Well done Iran. You go from having a ton of leverage to get a deal that you could never get by force (because you have no force) and then you conduct some shooting that pisses off the UK and other countries. Now the deal is off and what little you have to defend yourself (or shoot at ships) is being hit.

The US endgame has always been unclear. But even more confusing is what Iran's endgame is. It seems to be , for some reason, they actually want to be attacked. That they want to fight this out...

the US never began to implement the MOU. (nor did they ever intend to) they were supposed to unfreeze assets and drop sanctions. Israel was supposed to stop slaughtering children and schoolteachers in Lebanon.

instead, the US only allowed a weak waver on Iranian oil exports. and then they tried to open up an alternate route through Oman.

Iran put up with way too much and should have never allowed a single ship through.

Buh Buh I thought Iran's navy and missiles were gone and decimated and begging for a deal and all those other things Trump asserted?? 😮

were soooooo back

I would imagine that the strait being open helps fund military salaries and to some extent, brings in material to help build up their military. Which may be why they appear somewhat willing to let a mixture of ships through. They need money to keep it going.

Maybe they are doing just that, and have decided to turn up the temp a bit after a quick rebuild. Who knows.

Iran wants whatever is worst for its domestic population because the squalor and fear keeps them beholden to the IRGC. You also have to realize that their actions can be influenced by completely illogical religious and cultural doctrine.

The absolute worst possible scenario for places like Iran and NK are their citizens gaining any degree of wealth, autonomy and access to western comforts.

this is essentially the argument of many Iranians like Marandi and other reformist types.

other Iranians are worried that they gov is going to go Delcy.

The only leverage the IRGC has to shape "negotiations" towards their perceived favor is attacking civilian ships and infrastructure in the Gulf. So that is what they are doing and will keep doing. It isn't more complicated than that.

Their strategy is that time is on their side, Trump will want this resolved for domestic political reasons, the rest of the world will continue to be feckless and stay out of it; and if they hold out long enough they will eventually get their way in the "negotiations".

But they have to keep attacking regional ships and energy infrastructure, as they have no other buttons to push.

It seems Israel is staying out of attacking Iran for now on the orders of Trump. But if I was a Hezbollah commander I would be looking for a very deep, dark cave to hide in. As I suspect Trump is going to loosen the leash on Netanyahu wrt to the Lebanon front.

I do think it's a little more complicated than that for them. I'm sure causing disruptions to boost their end of any negotiations is helpful in the sort term but you're still paying a price, economically, and further isolating yourself.

I would imagine the most useful tactic for the IRGC would be to get Iranians and their neighbors stabilized and united together - which likely involves an operating strait and a semi functional economy. But I don't think the IRGC can do that or really even wants to.

... I think a mostly closed strait with a half ass US blockade making things a mess for everyone ultimately hurts the IRGC in the long and short.

The logic is any short term pain will be temporary and reversible if and when the US leaves. So they just have to hold out, take whatever pain comes, and wait the US out.

The logic is also they dont care about isolating regional neighbors, because when the US leaves those nations will be forced to sue for peace regardless of how frosty relations are. Iran isn't going anywhere, so nations like Saudi and Qatar will be forced to make peace with them on their terms once the US cries uncle and vacates, and they dont really care about alienating them now.

It is a very cynical collectivist strategy, which relies on having no concern for individual well being, and the entire focus being the collective "cause" persevering. Obviously to the western liberal, where the individual is the locus, this seems bizarre. But if you understand how Islam works at the theological level, this type of cynical, nihilistic collectivism is consistent with Islamic ideology.

Sounds like America if you change out the first and last words of the sentence.

I mostly agree with that, and an open strait is much more likely to reduce a massive US naval presence and or encourage other countries to bring in forces to protect shipping and any attacks on them. But I'm not saying you're even arguing about the strait.

Iran has already won that game of chicken and there is nothing to suggest closing the strait again will yield a different result. The rest of the world has shown they are too fickle to get involved, and the Gulf States, who spent their money well buying off Trump, will ultimately "force" Trump to not pass a certain threshold, because they dont want their infrastructure destroyed by the IRGC in reprisal.

It is extremely likely the regime will decide closing the Strait again is in their best strategic interest, regardless of whatever short term economic costs it brings.

At least that is the logic the IRGC is using. Whether their calculations will be correct I dont know.

But something else we should keep in mind about Islamic societies like Iran under the IRGC, is they often make poor choices and when the inevitable poor outcome happens, just shrug their shoulders, blame everything on the Jews, and carry on learning nothing. These are extremely close minded, small minded, nihilistic, societies we are talking about. Which is why they are so perpetually dysfunctional. Whatever you or I think they should do, they will probably do something else, get a poor result, and then curse the Jews for it. That is just how things work in the Middle East.

I know it is fashionable to argue that Iran is playing 5D chess and outsmarting us. But the truth is since 1979 their actions have mostly given poor outcomes and the decisions being made now will likely also. Sometimes it looks like they are "winning," but that is normally just because their adversary at the time concedes the game to them without fighting back at all, which is what happened under Carter and Obama. I dont really see any brilliant strategy going on. I see a very inflexible, stubborn, nihilistic strategy; that worked against spineless sycophants like Carter and Obama who bent over backwards to accommodate them, and otherwise hasn't been working at all. Which is Iran is as dysfunctional as it is, with much of their best and brightest having fled to the West over the last 40 years.

No-one is remotely suggesting that Iran are playing 5d chess. Some of us are saying that trump is such an incompetent idiot that playing 2d chess is enough to give him a hard time.

fixed

While I certainly agree with the sentiment expressed in your post, a huge difference between Iran and the USA is that the people have the opportunity to vote the rascals out every four years. With a small handful of exceptions, citizens in America don't get killed or jailed for protesting against the government.

(Amazingly, I think literally every country that Victor approves of doesn't tolerate any dissent whatsoever.)

I've almost mastered 2d tic-tac-toe.

It's not 5D chess to use the same strategy that has worked numerous times to expel Western powers. As chez says, it's anti-5D chess to fall into the trap yet again. The simple fact is that if you don't have the threat of complete subjugation, you are actually weak. Trump is currently learning this.

Dunyain is correct in his cultural analysis, but one thing that should be critiqued is that Trump/Israel should have recognized that they can't simply impose a Western bourgeois standard-of-living based worldview on people. The cultural glory that comes from expelling the imperialists is something too high a % of the population is willing to make a big sacrifice for.

Meanwhile, the SPR continues to be drained at 1 million+ barrels per day, long-term rates can't be lowered without causing massive inflation, affordability is haunting Republican candidates, the war is increasingly unpopular, missile defense stockpiles need years to be replenished, the Chinese position is getting stronger, the GCC are begging Trump not to go after infrastructure... in other words, his options are narrowing, and his leverage is decreasing by the day.

its not a handful of exceptions the last 250 years. mass incarceration and COINTELPRO started in the 60s. the first decades of this country had slaves ffs.

That's quite the hot take.