4-bet pot IP KK flops a set, bet sizing?

Also, no AKs combo is possible here. For V to have AK, he has to be cold-calling AK pure.

I want to amend my earlier post. Check back flop. Consider folding if he leads turn. If not, take the free card.

I think we are assigning a preflop range that is far too strong.

V shouldn't be cold calling anything here. V jamming range should be insanely tight (AA, AKs, some KK and tiny fractions of others).

He may well be cold calling hands he should be jamming with.

But he could also be cold calling hands he should be folding.

Or both. We just don't know.

It seems perfectly reasonable to construct some sort of synthetic range which includes both, because this sort of situation comes up so rarely that we are all taking a punt whether this is a hand which should be a jam, or one which should be a fold.

So it seems to me that a range of, say, JJ+, AK, some AQs is a reasonable compromise...even if V's actual range in this scenario is nothing like this.

But just assuming that this is a should-have-been-a-jam range, and just throwing out the should-have-been-a-fold hands, seems like a punt.

Actually, I was thinking about this more after my last post.

I somewhat suspect that if V had a hand he didn't think he was good enough to fold, like QQ or AKo, and he was just going with it, he'd have 5B-jammed pre, so he wouldn't have to make a difficult decision post-flop. The 4B cold-call range seems more like AA than any range that is AA + some other stuff.

I dunno. If SB posted this hand here, and described the action before it's his turn to act, most of us would say the cold 4B is super-nutted, and the continue range in the SB is only AA, or maybe AA/AKs. If he wanted to know what to do with QQ/JJ/AKo, we'd all scream "FOLD!!!!"

I think it would be extremely difficult for really great players to have a balanced range here. I'd think most people would only continue with AA or AA/KK/AKs, and he can't have KK/AKs here, so his cold-calling range of AA/KK/AKs gets narrowed down to AA on this flop.

If all the money goes in, I'd think we're good maybe 5% of the time, and losing 95% of the time.

I love when we fold and he shows AK or AQ like “good fold I had it.”

You have updated your strategy from b/f KK on AK3r w/ SPR of 1, to now ch flop and fold if he bets turn? Cmon, LOL. You are lacking self-awareness if you are confused why people view you as scared money/weak-tight if you are advocating for these plays. Typing essays justifying the bad play doesn't make it correct either.

Recs will absolutely have AKo and AQs in their range here, and they are planning to put $ into the pot when they hit an A let alone top-two. Even a "worst-case scenario" that assumes he NEVER bluffs or 5b AA which are incorrect assumptions already, if you ch/flop and he bets turn w/ ONLY AA,AK, and AQs folding KK is an absolute torch.

You have mentioned you have taken inspiration from Hungry Horse - who specializes in teaching low-limit live players. Would he ever advocate for the line of ch flop and fold turn to a bet w/ KK on AK3 w/ 1 SPR here? Be honest. If your answer is really yes, make a HH comment on one of his videos asking for feedback on this hand and see how he responds.

wow how can we have a discussion this long. Seriously if he has AA, let him have it.

we have AA, AK if we consider any slowplay, and I wouldn't slowplay this spot at all.

Opponent is a rec, he could have 89 suited here and wanted to get lucky, expecting a multiway pot.

B10.

I'm curious, how many times have you ever folded a set with an SPR of 1 or less on the flop?

I don't think I ever have. I can't even remember folding a set on the flop, let alone with SPR of 1 or less.

How many times have you cold 4B and had an opponent cold call?

Results:

V is a Rec and could have 89s.

Nits ITT making me feel poker is still alive.

I've never cold 4B and had an opponent cold-call. Never seen it. This thread is the first I've ever heard of it happening. Understandably (IMO), I assigned V a strong range, which would warrant proceeding with caution.

I've also never folded a set on the flop.

I wasn't advocating we just give up. I advocated for what I think was a reasonable amount of caution, in a spot where our opponent countering our aggression with aggression of their own would strongly indicate we're beat.

If we can get three streets of thin value from a worse hand, awesome. If we have more of a read on V, that leads to more confidence in attempting to exploit him, all the better.

All we were told here was that V was an "unknown rec". That's doesn't seem like enough info to decide V is going to be way OOL cold-calling a cold 4B for 1/3 of his stack.

This was a Saturday morning, around 8:30am. The V had just joined arrived at the cardroom, and I had never played with him before. When he pretty quickly called the $240 preflop 4-bet, my initial reaction was happiness. I think most recs would just shove AA in his spot. He called all 4 streets of bets without much tanking. He didn't seem bothered when he mucked his hand. I left about 5 minutes later, and he said bye in a friendly cheerful way. He seemed like he was "just happy to be there."

After 30 hands live game, u should have put ur opponent in a category and play accordingly until proven otherwise.

U say we need to proceed with caution here, that means u very much put V on a range of only Aces. Look at it from another perspective, u are actually the one who is OOL in this game.

Use GTO when it is needed to. Live game 5/5 rec playing like a NL20 fish, just happy to be there and u are sweating with second nut on the flop.

Be careful making this assumptiion, because of Bayesian priors, and the fact that not all types are equally likely. ~80% of Low Stakes are typical loose passive types, as you get more hands you can start to adjust those probabilities. Ed Millar has an excellent section in his book on this about the dangers of categorizing someone as a LAG vs. just caught a few hands on a small sample size.

I definitely get that, but an SPR of 1, I just don't see a scenario where we don't just at least try to get it all in, so I am not sure the caution thing matters much.

Agreed this was cold call with two left to act.
no way this is AA
if it is i have the best bad beat story never told