2023-2024 NC/LC THREAD

The recommended pre-flop play around the blinds in that book is so awful that you would be punting an enormous amount of money if you followed it. The Stox book is much better simply because the blind play is much closer to reality. Pre-flop play around the blinds is a huge % of our winrate in LHE.

No one is trying to say they are a world class online player lol. I’m not even saying this streak is a testament to my skill. Certainly the people I’m playing against are not even remotely as skilled as even the average online player. It’s just a live streak unlike any I’ve personally ever heard of.

Regardless, variance is insane. This may be a bad way to look at this, but if I win 69% of my 20/40 sessions at this location, the chances of me even winning b2b sessions are roughly 47.6% (all other things presumed relatively equal). The chances I win five sessions in a row are 15.6%. I ended up winning 33 in a row.

I personally think that’s unfathomable in a live LHE cash game. You can belittle it if you want, but I’m going to continue to think it’s absurd.

I was not trying to belittle it. I was just trying to discourage you and everyone else from doing something silly with your money based on freakish variance in either direction. I have seen countless pros go on a crazy heater and move up in stakes while spending enormous amounts of money on various luxuries on the side. A few months later, they're selling their new car and taking ubers to and from the casino. Bad times.

Oh, I’ve been doing this way too long to think I suddenly figured something out. I’ve actually played zero hours above 20/40 since that streak started. Ironically, I’m the closest I’ve ever been to switching careers. Poker has awarded me amazing freedom but it’s gotten me absolutely nowhere financially and I’ve lost any passion I ever had for the game.

Thanks I was thinking of trying my luck at LA/Bay good thing you makes me come to my sense

Its just a cool crazy random streak for sure. That said I feel strongly if someone is winning 69% of their live sessions in LHE they are doing something suboptimal in terms of win structuring. Had a discussion awhile back with a good friend and we both think the "goal" should be to win around 50% of live sessions, any more than that and you are probably win locking and/or not maximizing the good days. Any less and it might be hard to win overall. One of the very best skills a live pro can develop is to take a 10-30 bet loss and not be perturbed in any way and sleep like a baby. I can't tell you how many times I've seen someone losing 20 bets, game gets worse, and they try to get even and turn it into a 50 bet loss.

I should have noted this in my last post but that 69% is bloated:

-it’s my current win percentage. I didn’t filter to the date before it started.

-I did filter out sessions of five hours or less because they are anomalies and I usually play 8+ hours a day.

-I only have 143 20/40 sessions at this location lifetime. It didn’t become my regular casino until 2023 so my sample size is still kind of small.

My win % before the streak started, all session lengths included, was 58%.

I def don’t win protect. I stick to a schedule. Sometimes I’ll play an extra hour or two if the game is really good (whether I’m winning or losing). One thing I have always been really good (or bad?) at is leaving when I’m getting killed and can’t recover mentally.

Yeah was more speaking generally, your stats just provided an example

I get horrible insomnia after a big winning session... just too much of that competitive/degen gambling rush to sleep properly.

When I lose big on the other hand, I sleep really well because I feel slightly depressed and don't really want to think about poker.

I am the exact same way with tournament chess... insomnia when I win, sleep like a baby when I lose lol.

You're a strong player, but I'm not sure that you have what it takes to make it in the LA games.

Can’t even imagine losing my cool after being down 20 bets lol. For the longest time, my pain threshold routinely kicked in around -50 bets in a losing session and I thought it was weak on my part that I had trouble pushing past that (at least at 20/40+ - not so much at lower stakes). I set an all time loss record in 2016 and didn’t pass that number for almost six years, even though I was playing bigger stakes. I’ve passed that previous record seven more times in the last 21 months. Growth, I guess.

Losing 100 BBs live is about the point where I start to feel shell-shocked and wonder if I am just getting wrecked somehow... time to go home.

Stupid hand from HP 15/30:

Elderly LAG opens in early middle position and a loose passive guy calls next in. Folded to me OTB and I 3bet KQo. BB calls, LAG calls, loose passive guy calls.

Flop 775r. Checked to me, I bet, BB folds, LAG calls, loose passive guy calls.

Turn J putting up a FD. Checked to me, I bet, LAG XR, loose passive guy folds, I call.

River 2h. LAG bets I call.

That is a truly bizarro world play... floating air 3way to check-raise air 3way on the turn.

To me, the interesting thing about this hand is the concept of hard exploits vs. soft exploits. This is the hardest of hard exploits. When he sees this, he's going to remember it for a long time. Is he really so bonkers that he will just do the same thing again tomorrow?

But if your read was strong enough, I guess we just have to call down. Still a metagame ruiner though.

I was going to say something like this regarding a 33 session win streak. Quitting decisions are obviously being made to help that continue.

Every session of the streak

I didn’t know this was even happening until the four straight +2k sessions in late April.

That first session immediately after looks sus but I didn’t get in the game til 7:17 PM and I usually leave around midnight unless the game is off the charts.

Not sure about that 7/18 4.5 hour +71. I started at 5 PM and left at 9:30 on a Tuesday when my gf was in NYC. I don’t have anything on my calendar for that date. There were a couple times when the game broke early on a weekday night and I was wondering if that was going to be how the streak ended. This was prob one of those times.

The only other sub-5.5 hour session I played I won 4.5 racks and left at 1:13 AM.

I may have left a very good game at 1 AM for win #33 to keep the streak alive knowing I was only going to play an hour longer max.

I dunno. I didn’t think I was making quitting decisions based on something that doesn’t ultimately matter and I think these logs are evidence of that. I was kind of wanting it to be over tbh. I was posting updates on my social media and players and dealers started talking to me about it at the table and I didn’t like that at all. Like, I’ve always enjoyed sharing my poker journey via social media or my blog but I’ve also always loathed talking about it while I’m actually playing - unless it’s about me sucking. I don’t need to be having a conversation about how I’ve been crushing everyone I’m currently sitting at the table with.

I'm not sure what you mean by "around the blinds". What did you think was bad about the pre-flop suggestions from SSLE? I read the Stox book not long after it came out but I don't remember how it differed in pre-flop recommendations.

It’s been a while since I’ve revisited SSLHE but I’m pretty sure the recommendations are way too tight (not prob fine for new players).

By around the blinds, I mean around the blinds. What do I think is bad about the pre-flop suggestions? That they absolutely suck and are 20 years outdated.

The Stox book introduced revolutionary concepts such as blind stealing and blind defense.

If you don't want to answer something you could say so, or just ignore the question. No need to waste your time giving flippant answers clearly meant to insult others.

Although it does seem like the only reason you post here is to make you feel good about how much better you are than anyone else. Silly me for thinking you might have had any other reason for your post.

In his defense, around the blinds seems pretty self explanatory. Defending blinds and stealing blinds from late position

My ratio of helpful posts to douchebag posts absolutely dwarfs yours. You have directed rude posts at me in the past, and you just dropped 2 more. In fact, I don't ever remember having a pleasant interaction with you.

Your first post was condescending and snarky. If you don't know what "around the blinds" means, you need to take that **** to the beginner forums. Like ninefingershuffle said, it is quite self-explanatory. It is common lingo that has been around forever.

I thoroughly answered your questions while intentionally matching your tone from your first post.

I honestly have no idea what you think could have been snarky about asking what the difference was in blind play between the two books. I own both, but they've both been in storage across the country from me for a long time. Also, you were definitely condescending towards two other posters I like just in the last two pages here.

I suppose I could have guessed what you meant by "around the blinds", but I wasn't sure. I have been a LHE pro for many years, read the strategy forums here for longer, and still do. But I have never heard the phrase "around the blinds" before. You didn't answer that question, nor my other question. Saying something "sucks" and is "20 years outdated" doesn't explain anything, and I'm pretty sure you knew that. I still have no idea if you think the SSHE suggestions were too tight, too loose, or anything else.

Yes, that is what I thought the most likely meaning was, but I wanted to be sure. I certainly didn't ask in any kind of snarky way, and he claims he thoroughly answered it by saying "By around the blinds, I mean around the blinds." 🙄

In the games addressed by the SSHE book, stealing blinds would absolutely never come into play, so of course it didn't address that, nor defending against a likely steal raise.