Israel/Palestine thread

Yeah, agree with this. Don't play to your enemy's strengths.

Yep this is where the conflict is at currently. Hezbollah has taken a major reputation blow in Lebanon due to the extremely embarrassing pager and walkie-talkie attacks followed by this. If Hezbollah responds in a manner which justifies Israel carpet bombing then Israel wins. If Hezbollah just takes the targeted strikes and only gives some small retaliations then Israel wins. Currently win/win for Israel and invading changes that.

Still a chance of a ground invasion, but I think it would be a major mistake still. Israel should be content to do this for a long time.

Israel has declared that victory is returning the settlers to the north. so until that happens, its not a win for Israel. Hezbollah doesnt give a **** about their reputation with Western pundits, esp those who have been gushing over the terrorist attacks by Israel. they care about their reputation within Lebanon and in the Resistance where they have only gained favor in the last 40 years.

Yep, that is why their reputation within Lebanon was mentioned, and not their reputation with Western pundits.

The longer Hezbollah hides as Israel bombs them, the more a reputation blow they will take within Lebanon which is a loss. If Hezbollah strikes back in a manner that prompts Israel to up the bombing then Hezbollah loses. As much as Israel wants to return the northern area, they are more than content to bomb Hezbollah for as long as it makes sense; they're in no real rush.

You say that as if Israel isn't going to up the bombing anyway.

well they're too cowardly and incompetent to invade, and usa#1 will supply them with unlimited missiles indefinitely, so yeah the carpet-bombings of apartment buildings will continue until morale improves. it's a bold strategy, cotton

When has incompetence ever stopped an invasion?

do you ever get tired of siding with the people that want to see the middle east burn because they hate Jews? (referring to Hezbollah) I guess you don’t have to live with the consequences of them trashing their own state out of spite and hatred.

edit: to be clear because I know someone is going to misinterpret, I’m not saying anti-Zionism is anti-Judaism, I’m saying that anti-Israel jihadists hate jews.

touché

I'm not sure that true for netanyahu. He will come under huge pressure if he waits it our while not achieving his self declared war aim of Israelis going back home

Massively up the bombing, like what we're seeing in Gaza.

Netanyahu benefits massively from drawing things out. If he can draw things out while showing progress then all the better for him.

this is funny bc if you ever read or listen to a summary of a Nasrallah speech, of which there are plenty, he never makes mention of "Jews" and doesnt even rip on Israel that much. however, he almost never wastes an opportunity to maintain that the real enemy is the USA.

Yeah, that's going to happen more or less regardless of what Hezbollah does next.

Maybe but I doubt it. It can't become steady or 'normal' as the politcal pressure will have space to dominate.

I'll agree your point on hezbullah if he can escalate elsewhere. But he needs something.

right, just like how he came under huge pressure after not achieving his self-declared war aims of defeating hamas and freeing the hostages in gaza. oh, wait...

turns out no one there really cares about stuff like that as long as they're assured that brown kids and being exploded somewhere

I don't think so, but we will see.

We might be thinking of drastically different timeframes. I'm not suggesting he will drag it out for years or anything. As long as he's hitting targets in Lebanon he is likely to continue though. If Israel goes for a buffer zone in Lebanon then that will take a good amount of time too.

It's why it was always likely he would escalate elsewhere and he has.

It's also probably while he declared his war aim of returning israelis to their homes. It's polical pressure.

Okay we might be. He has months of dragging it out before it becomes steady/normal.

There's also the usa election timetable. I'll still be suprised if he doesn't force if before the election. My best guess is first few weeks of october.

Hezbollah can always outflank Netanyahu by stopping their attack of Israel. And then all the fighting in the North will be done.

This thing where you absolve the parties who started all the violence and refuse to stop, and yet it is somehow completely the fault of Israel that the fighting is dragging on, is extremely bizarre IMO.

I have no idea what Hezbollah is trying to do with these barrages of 10-15 rockets.

Whatever it is, it's not necessarily rational.

It is indeed a bizarre thing you make up.