Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
Given Ukraine has never invaded Russia, and has shown no interest in invading Russia; what is the point of this other than making it easier for Russia to destroy Ukraine next invasion?
What I mean is Ukraine should not agree to any restrictions on their military. They should have the right to arm themselves as much as they like. I think that's going to be a big sticking point in negotiations as Putin wants restrictions on them.
They literally invaded Russia 6 months ago. And still hold territory in Russia.
That said, I'm not saying it justifies limiting Ukrainian military. The reason for limiting their military is that lol international law got burned alive and buried in the rubble of Gaza. It's the law of the jungle from now on.
Lol what in the name of fuck
Or Trump is satisfying his base with cheap words while something very different is on his mind
You may be overestimating him. His supporters have often claimed he is playing 4D chess when he's actually playing pigeon chess (if you're not familiar with the phrase, the difficulty with playing a pigeon at chess is that the pigeon just struts around the board knocking random pieces over). He thinks he can do a deal with Putin and win the world's applause and a gold laurel wreath to go on his head. Ukraine and the European NATO powers do not share this view.
You may be overestimating him. His supporters have often claimed he is playing 4D chess when he's actually playing pigeon chess (if you're not familiar with the phrase, the difficulty with playing a pigeon at chess is that the pigeon just struts around the board knocking random pieces over). He thinks he can do a deal with Putin and win the world's applause and a gold laurel wreath to go on his head. Ukraine and the European NATO powers do not share this view.
I am not talking x-d chess, rather that he talks a lot and you should wait for what he actually does, in general.
And he cares more about domestic politics than everything else. And in the Ukrainian case he faces actual divide inside the republican party. People he needs to pass his program in Congress. So he necessarily tries to play them both.
Given one of those side is far dumber (the nativist MAGA one) it's expected that they will get platitudes while reality will satisfy actual old school republicans more.
all he cares about right now is making his base love him. thats my read its an ego thing . he chooses popularity over being a good world leader. there's no other explanation for his trade war bullshit every economic minor knows its bad for his country . he made dumb campaign promises and hes trying to follow them. this includes ending the war fast at Ukraine's expense
Not going to work, I shouldn't think. He sets up a private deal with Putin and demands $500bn of Ukraine's minerals, and Ukraine and the European NATO powers just say no.
what choice do the Ukrainians have? they are fully dependent on the USA for weapons.
I am not a Russian apologist that thinks Putin is the good guy (like some in this thread). But that being said, for the war to end anytime in the near future we have to give Putin an off ramp, where he can present the war as a success domestically.
Some sort of deal where Russia keeps the land it has taken (which is economically and politically the least important part of the country), the rest of Ukraine is technically neutral, but Ukraine is very heavily economically integrated with the West (say for example American investment in minerals) making a future Russian invasion much more complicated and risky; seems like some sort of workable framework.
The weird thing about all of the anti-American rhetoric going on in this thread, the Canadian thread, and others is that it seems like Euros and Canadians have a very distorted view of the world.
You know why all the economic sanctions against Russia have not worked particularly well? It is because most of the rest of the world isn't participating in them. Most of the world is completely indifferent to the suffering going on in Ukraine or European security, and just sees an opportunity to develop closer economic ties with a natural resource rich nation (Russia).
What exactly is the plan? Cut ties with the US for being too soft on Russia (despite clearly supporting Ukraine), and instead shifting towards nations like China, Iran and India; which are countries that are literal allies with Russia, and couldn't give 2 shits about Ukraine, and are literally the reasons Russia has done as well economically as it has the last couple years?
Regarding many different cultures and nationalities and sovereign nations as "Euros" like they're The Borg, implies a somewhat distorted view of the world.
Russian embassy in Dublin was running out of fuel and electricity in 2022, due to Irish (or "Euros" if you prefer) companies refusing to supply them, over Ukraine.
People aren't as indifferent as you seem to think and many "Euros" countries seem to care more about Ukraine than America currently does, if the new Admin's recent remarks are anything to go by.
If you think that "euros" would rather the likes of Russia, Iran or China over America, then that too implies a distorted view of the world.
The reports of what trump is demanding from Ukraine is quite troubling. Its probably more then what Russia is demanding at this point
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
"Trump’s demands would amount to a higher share of Ukrainian GDP than reparations imposed on Germany at the Versailles Treaty"
The reports of what trump is demanding from Ukraine is quite troubling. Its probably more then what Russia is demanding at this point
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
"Trump’s demands would amount to a higher share of Ukrainian GDP than reparations imposed on Germany at the Versailles Treaty"
I cant get behind the paywall. But Trump himself threw out the $500 billion number, so I am guessing this is the number you are going with? Anyways, like pretty much everything Trumps says, there is probably a lot of hyperbole and/or not being careful with words, and the actual number that would be part of a deal would be much lower.
And on top of this, as I mentioned in another post there would be a "hidden" additional benefit of the fact that if the US was heavily economically invested in a "neutral" Ukraine, it would greatly complicate Russia invading again.
So far it seems most of the outrage is not particularly good faith, and is motivated more by ideological disapproval of Trump more than concern for Ukraine or the Ukrainian people.
I admit I dont know enough about norms surrounding aid, military aid and foreign policy to know how appropriate Trump's proposal is. I dont even know how serious it is, as he just throws stuff out like this all the time, with no clue how committed he is to it.
But I suspect 99% of the outrage is coming from a similar place of lack of knowledge, and is driven by ideological reasons.
I cant get behind the paywall. But Trump himself threw out the $500 billion number, so I am guessing this is the number you are going with? Anyways, like pretty much everything Trumps says, there is probably a lot of hyperbole and/or not being careful with words, and the actual number that would be part of a deal would be much lower.
And on top of this, as I mentioned in another post there would be a "hidden" additional benefit of the fact that if the US was heavily economically invested in a
Trump said "at least" 60% tariffs from day one on China if he had won.
He implemented 10% (which is actually a 3-4% given the exchance rate changes since he mentioned the 60%).
Trump has a whole book about how genius he is by asking for absurd things and getting by with what he wanted to being with.
500 bln in rare earths lol
I cant get behind the paywall. But Trump himself threw out the $500 billion number, so I am guessing this is the number you are going with? Anyways, like pretty much everything Trumps says, there is probably a lot of hyperbole and/or not being careful with words, and the actual number that would be part of a deal would be much lower.
And on top of this, as I mentioned in another post there would be a "hidden" additional benefit of the fact that if the US was heavily economically invested in a
these were leaked reports. nothing he said publicly
Leaked reports of what?
Zelensky himself stated he was open to negotiating joint development of natural resources with the US postwar. As Lucium states we know when doing business deals Trump has a tendency to make outrageous proposals, and then meeting somewhere more reasonable. Does the Telegraph piece acknowledge this; or it is just stating the plan is to force Ukraine to go with whatever outrageous proposal Trump is making?
I get that western left wing media (US and other western nations) is so ideologically committed to fighting Trump there is no length they wont go to to try to smear him, even if it means completely sabotaging any sort of truce. And if you would rather the war goes on indefinitely then bend an inch to Trump, then that is your prerogative I guess.
But for those people who would like to see some sort of reasonable truce, I dont think we should get too hung up on believing the left wing media bad faith outrage machine.
Maybe see how this actually plays out, rather than bad faith outrage before it has even started yet.
As an aside I have read a few Twitter pundits that argue neither Britain and Germany have enough battle ready troops or equipment to accomplish any military objectives on the Ukraine front. The way the war is being fought, neither country has enough available troops/equipment to hold a medium sized town on the battle front.
And the only real value troops from either country would provide is the strategic effect them entering the war directly would have on Russia and the US. And I am not sure we can accurately predict how either Putin or Trump would respond to such an action.
Leaked reports of what?
Zelensky himself stated he was open to negotiating joint development of natural resources with the US postwar. As Lucium states we know when doing business deals Trump has a tendency to make outrageous proposals, and then meeting somewhere more reasonable. Does the Telegraph piece acknowledge this; or it is just stating the plan is to force Ukraine to go with whatever outrageous proposal Trump is making?
I get that western left wing media (US and other western nation
I'd say it slants to the TDS side of things like you are thinking but also makes a point that Trump has an extreme amount of leverage in the situation and can squeeze a fairly lopsided deal from Ukraine if he pushes it.
I definitely think there should be a truce. But why should America get all the benefits. sure you committed the most because you had the most. but no one else is asking to give Ukraine a treaty of versailles tier respiration's post war. I don't have the numbers but I imagine Americas contribution is only around half.
So even by your own logic of "we paid we get to decide" you only have a half share and other people including ukraine should have a say at the table. likely whatever happens at this meeting will be pointless since so many people are excluded
I definitely think there should be a truce. But why should America get all the benefits. sure you committed the most because you had the most. but no one else is asking to give Ukraine a treaty of versailles tier respiration's post war. I don't have the numbers but I imagine Americas contribution is only around half.
So even by your own logic of "we paid we get to decide" you only have a half share and other people including ukraine should have a say at the table. likely whatever happens at this
You are getting way too wrapped up in Trump's rhetoric. He is "selling" continued involvement with Ukraine to his base by saying a bunch of stuff where most of it probably isn't true. That is kind of his shtick. He bullshits and lies all the time, even in situations where it makes no sense.
There is probably no chance Ukraine has $500B in minerals that the US is going to get half of. Just as there is no chance Canada is going to pay 25% tariffs on all exports to the US and Gaza is going to be cleared out and rebuilt.
Also, as in the Canada thread you have a lot of anger at the US that should probably be directed at China (and of course Russia). Prior to the invasion Ukraine, Poland and other Eastern European nations were very involved in China's BRI. However, China's close ally Russia started a war in this part of the world that they could only pull off with China's tacit support, especially economically. And the US and Europe are paying an extreme amount of money for defense against Russia (and China). And guess what, in the great power game maneuvering the people paying for this war (essentially the Western world) absolutely should be taking this opportunity to use this as leverage against China.
You think it is a good idea that China should be essentially supporting devastating wars in Europe that we (Western civilization) have to pay for, and then let them come in and clean up the mess to their benefit? Because they will if we let them. But that seems like a very bad incentive structure to me.
If you are inclined to hate Russia (which you probably should be) you can take solace in the fact that China has them completely over a barrel and Russia is basically just giving away all their natural resources and industrial capacity to China for pennies on the dollar. But they dont really have a choice if they want to keep the war machine going.
No my problem isn't with trump I can understand why you voted him for domestic reasons. My problem is mostly with his blind followers that have to agree with every single one of his policies and are incapable of picking and choosing based on logic.
Like your out here arguing about facts you don't even bother to do 5 minutes of research about and just blame it on liberal bias. You already have chosen your side.
This is not "trump saying stuff to his base" He is currently going behind Ukraine and the rest of the worlds back to talk to Russia about a peace deal TODAY. While I'm sure you think this will favor you. I assure you it will not.
I don't know what "deal" you think hes getting by ruining hundreds of years of positive US international relations but its not a good longterm trade.
And any deal trump makes will likely not even end the war and will lead to Russia gaining more territory and many more deaths because you know hes gonna have a hissy fit and pull out when the rest of the world wont bend over
It might work, when Trump's placemen realise they have to achieve a deal acceptable to all parties, rather than just shouting slogans at the US media. Then again it might not.
I am not a Russian apologist that thinks Putin is the good guy (like some in this thread). But that being said, for the war to end anytime in the near future we have to give Putin an off ramp, where he can present the war as a success domestically.
Some sort of deal where Russia keeps the land it has taken (which is economically and politically the least important part of the country), the rest of Ukraine is technically neutral, but Ukraine is very heavily economically integrated with the West
Yeah , economic sanction worked so badly in Russia they have 20%+ interest rates with around 9% inflation….
Had to be backed by mercenaries then North Korea .
It just take time .
The stupid joke now , let’s **** are greatest allies economically and try a good deal with Russia ?
Wtf ….
amazing. cue the Kissinger quote.
smh
