Eat The Rich!
KS- Moved a conversation in Mod Thread about taxing the wealthy.
I don’t think you guys understand how numbers work.
If billionaires were taxed at the same rates as everyone else ALL TAXES would be covered by their contribution
Nobody else would have to pay any taxes ever.
It’s not my fault you haven’t taught yourself to understand economics and how large large numbers work
Blowjob healthcare would save the country money.
So would reparations.
More doom and gloom.
Corporate America went to the assembly line the moment they could 100 years ago and that was supposed to make workers irrelevant in the car factories.
100 years later, there are thousands of machines in these factories pumping out cars by the thousands a day and somehow these manufacturers still employ hundreds of thousands of employees.
It is only doom and gloom if it is handled badly. The idea that reducing the amount people have to work or even eliminating it entirely only has bad outcomes is a ridiculous statement peddled by those who can't imagine a world where their self worth isn't wrapped up in work.
Someone already pointed out why this time really is different, I am not even bothered arguing the why because anyone who does any critical thinking around why can see the obvious differences.
[URL="https://hbr.org/2024/05/ai-is-making-economists-rethink-the-story-of-automation"]AI Is Making Economists Rethink the Story of Automation
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It seems pretty clear that because egregious and unpredictable effects of climate change on human populations is just around the corner and AI will be reducing the amount of work humans need to do, the human race is about to find itself significantly downsized.
Pretty much. Mainly at first (I worked with them in the 80s) they replaced typewriters in the secretaries pool because of easy edits, then databases on a LAN replaced manual purchasing and invoicing systems etc.
and lately (pre-AI) extensive sw services reduced the man/hour needed to do case research (which as you know in common law countries was a huge time sink).
And yet with all these real disruptions, the labor force is still occupied doing various jobs. And remember we added a zillion jobs in the last 50 years, mainly women.
Very basically , as long as there is at least one thing humans can do better (in a Ricardo sense though, comparative advantage, not in an absolute sense) than machines/AI, there will be jobs.
and lately (pre-AI) extensive sw services reduced the man/hour needed to do case research (which as you know in common law countries was a huge time sink).
And yet with all these real disruptions, the labor force is still occupied doing various jobs. And remember we added a zillion jobs in the last 50 years, mainly women.
Very basically , as long as there is at least one thing humans can do better (in a Ricardo sense though, comparative advantage, not in an absolute sense) than machines/AI, there
Added many jobs when women entered the workforce en masse, lost many workers through falling birth rates, gained some back through immigration (in Europe anyway), gained more through IT services. I don't know how these numbers stack up.
I do know that if I was young I'd be focussing on becoming good at doing somethin no AI or ****ing robot will be able to do as well as me during my lifetime.
Added many jobs when women entered the workforce en masse, lost many workers through falling birth rates, gained some back through immigration (in Europe anyway), gained more through IT services. I don't know how these numbers stack up.
I do know that if I was young I'd be focussing on becoming good at doing somethin no AI or ****ing robot will be able to do as well as me during my lifetime.
In the USA it's approx 160m total employed in 2022, vs 100m in 1980
Some or many of those blue collar jobs will be safe, at least for the time being, but lawyers and accountants are at risk of AI doing it at least as well and far cheaper, and you’ll have to use those or become uncompetitive.
If corporations, governments and citizens have to spend less money on lawyers and accountants, we will be more productive as a society. More resources can then be applied to things that produce value.
Hire an AI bot to prepare financial statements and tax returns for me? Sure, why do I have to pay thousands to an accountant for a generally rent seeking job. Accountant and lawyer endeavours that produce value will remain. The endeavours that do not, we can live without.
I do know that if I was young I'd be focussing on becoming good at doing somethin no AI or ****ing robot will be able to do as well as me during my lifetime.
Awareness is growing. i've been banging on about the problem with a friend for ages. he was as skeptical as many but then his son came home from a school session on what A-levels to take for what university course. What jobs are secure for the future was much discussed and the consensus was **** not much. Agree or not at least it's being discussed more realistically now.
Just about nothing is remotely safe if they're looking at decades ahead and not being valueless in their 40s.
20 years ago in my teens, I was scared by older folks saying India and China with their billions of workers would take all our jobs. They did take many jobs, but the sky didn't fall.
The "AI will replace every single worker" crowd is gaslighting the **** out of our youth today, and like formula72 said, creating a lot of mental health problems.
It's as big a denial as with climate change. Maybe bigger
The main difference is AI etc is a great thing for the youth. I wish I was one of them.
I don't think it will be a great thing for anyone in the long run. Sure some well-educated young people will get great jobs working at the cutting edge of AI, but that will come at the expense of other young people forced out of work and into what?
Awareness is growing. i've been banging on about the problem with a friend for ages. he was as skeptical as many but then his son came home from a school session on what A-levels to take for what university course. What jobs are secure for the future was much discussed and the consensus was **** not much. Agree or not at least it's being discussed more realistically now.
Just about nothing is remotely safe if they're looking at decades ahead and not being valueless in their 40s.
anything related to making money through getting the trust of rich people is safe. This people will want a human to install and mantain whatever AI based service anyway and will pay for it.
"automation" would already allow to complete disintegrate money management, yet money management never made as much money as today.
We are paying 3% + 3% to realtors lol
I don't think it will be a great thing for anyone in the long run. Sure some well-educated young people will get great jobs working at the cutting edge of AI, but that will come at the expense of other young people forced out of work and into what?
The wealth will explode while the need to work for it collapses
The journey may be painful bit this is an awesome future. A lot of politics is how we navigate this journey - heads in the sand isn't going to hele but it is likely.
You should realise where all that exploding wealth is going. It won't be long before people are talking about trillionaires, not billionaires. The race is on.
I don't think it will be a great thing for anyone in the long run. Sure some well-educated young people will get great jobs working at the cutting edge of AI, but that will come at the expense of other young people forced out of work and into what?
Work sucks, man. Particularly the work that AI can do. There are zillions of jobs that can't be done by AI and new ones will be created.
anything related to making money through getting the trust of rich people is safe. This people will want a human to install and mantain whatever AI based service anyway and will pay for it.
"automation" would already allow to complete disintegrate money management, yet money management never made as much money as today.
We are paying 3% + 3% to realtors lol
Discounting the part where most money management is already done to a large degree by algorithms. The remaining human part will be removed very soon.
You should realise where all that exploding wealth is going. It won't be long before people are talking about trillionaires, not billionaires. The race is on.
I do but that's the short/medium term. The longer term is going to be totally different.
Getting there is is the issue and I'm sure we agree that inequality underlies all the major problems. Democratic capitalism cannot survive so are we going to just suffer the death throes (most likely) or are we going to do something about it.
We are, as the chinese curse goes, living through interesting times.
Discounting the part where most money management is already done to a large degree by algorithms. The remaining human part will be removed very soon.
sure, but a ton of people make a ton of money working around those algos, it isn't disintermediated.
Waiting for the "soon" any decade now, has been predicted since ETFs were a thing
The Open AI CEO Sam Altman, actually wrote a piece that tries to tackles the problems of how to reshape society as AI takes hold.
Everyone should read it - https://moores.samaltman.com/
GPT-5 scheduled to be released by the end of this year, and they have already started training its successor they are calling frontier models.
OpenAI has recently begun training its next frontier model and we anticipate the resulting systems to bring us to the next level of capabilities on our path to AGI. While we are proud to build and release models that are industry-leading on both capabilities and safety, we welcome a robust debate at this important moment.
sure, but a ton of people make a ton of money working around those algos, it isn't disintermediated.
Waiting for the "soon" any decade now, has been predicted since ETFs were a thing
You just stick that head nice and tightly into the sand. Your completely right, the world will stay the same forever and the future will always follow what happened in the past.
It's as big a denial as with climate change. Maybe bigger
The main difference is AI etc is a great thing for the youth. I wish I was one of them.
I assume that the denail part you say is in reference to people not understanding AI like with climate change and not that it is a big of a threat? - considering you just said that it would be great for the youth.
I think AI tech will accelerate at which things change and people dont handle changes that fast very well. The fear alone is bad enough.
I do but that's the short/medium term. The longer term is going to be totally different.
Getting there is is the issue and I'm sure we agree that inequality underlies all the major problems. Democratic capitalism cannot survive so are we going to just suffer the death throes (most likely) or are we going to do something about it.
We are, as the chinese curse goes, living through interesting times.
I think it's pretty clear that the future is authoritarianism/fascism funded by trillionaires and enforced by AI. The age where people could overthrow governments is over. All hail the new world order.
Christ knows what you're so cheerful about.
It isn't really about any one specific job type. This is another example in a long list that illustrates the kinds of jobs these systems will come after. These are high paying jobs which afford people a very comfortable life. These high paying jobs can be replaced by a tiny fraction of people doing the same amount of work using these systems. This will happen across many sectors in the coming years. The idea that new jobs will spring is probably true in the short/medium term but these systems will eventually become more capable than humans, that means any new jobs that get created are likely going to be done by them.
Currently the systems are too error prone across long range tasks that require multiple steps but the improvements are coming and once that happens, the impacts will be felt far faster than anyone can currently imagine.
I assume that the denail part you say is in reference to people not understanding AI like with climate change and not that it is a big of a threat? - considering you just said that it would be great for the youth.
I think AI tech will accelerate at which things change and people dont handle changes that fast very well. The fear alone is bad enough.
The issue is that one A.I. is powerful enough to take on all armies at once and win , provided we are still using electricity.
No electricity then A.I. doesn’t matter (dormant A.I. tho)
But once you have true A.I. and electricity, the A.I. is in charge.
Before we even realize A.I. is attacking us , A.I. would already have its enemies die in car crashes, accidents, police raids on the wrong house, missile fired to wrong location etc.
