Trump 2nd term prediction thread

Not necessarily, but if trump goes all-in on "drill baby drill" that could effect prices for decades to come. Clinton could have effected the prices to day if he went all-in on fossil fuels or green energy.

In general, I don't think presidents get enough credit or blame for what happens after their time as president and too much credit/blame for things that happen during their term(s). For instance, look at the stark difference in who economists would name as the president who deserves the most blame or 2008 compared to non-economists. Hardly any non-economists today would blame clinton for 2008.

What likely could have a long-term effect on the price of oil is that our two hopefuls in this past Nov were polar opposites on energy. harris was trying to increase the price of oil and decrease the price of green and trump is the opposite. One was trying to build infrastructure for green to lower green energy price now and in the future and the other is going to try to encourage more fossil fuel investment which would lower the current and future price of oil.

I think all of them were/are very close to 0% to "completely crash the economy" - depending on how you define that phrase. However, I think with all 3 we would be very likely to see a recession and under trump we are even more likely to see that than we would have than under either biden/harris.

I think the long-term health of the economy is no question better under trump - most of which is due to the fact that the fed. gov't is running on a budget (as a % of the size of the economy) that has previously been reserved for times of world wars and depressions.

I would say trump would be better than harris or biden because of the same logic you used. Trump is far more likely to cut energy regulation and subsidies to green energy to allow the collective knowledge of the world and each US citizen have a vote on where we get our energy with the gov't having less of a say.

Anything I've missed so far? Feels like hes taken action towards one or two more of these

That which can be started can be stopped.

3 is underway by sacking all those IGs

A very underreported story.

How many potential impeachable offenses has he already committed? The meme coin stuff alone seems like a pretty clear violation of the emoluments clause. But we're in a new era. A Banana Republic era.

Trump can chant drill baby drill all he wants but are the gas companies really clamoring to massively increase production and bring the price per barrel down by increasing supply? Isn't it like $50 a barrel and fracking starts not being worth it anymore and production goes on pause?

No its higher than that closer to $60.00 a barrel. Bur remember they can not refine that oil. They would export it all as its a lighter crude. Some of your biggest refineries are set up to refine heavy crude . The countries that produce that are Canada , Iran and Venezuela all run by dictators currently

If you sign leases for 50 years on federal land with monstrous penalties if they are ever suspended (also linked to future regulations /taxation) you can actually tie the hands of future "green"governments.

You can actually bind yourself in a low regulatory regime legally and who comes after can only watch and cry, if you write it properly.

Same as we now cry for social security and Medicare.

The breakeven prices are all over the place depending on the well and the location. It's very patchwork.

Some places are positive at 35 some aren't at 75.

What the trump admin can do though is lower all of them as much as possible with deregulation (and through congress, he can also help fiscally and so on).

Meanwhile the world isn't going to always have a smooth economy. A recession/slowdown in China, India and the like could be near. If that happens that's massively deflationary.

9 and 12 did never happen

Reading comprehension: zero.

And btw I claim Clinton is responsible for the price level today being LOWER than it otherwise would have been

NAFTA was Reagan's vision for the country it took years to hammer that deal out. It's hilarious seeing conservatives these days blame it on Clinton lol He signed something they had been putting together for ages--the only real opposition at all came from the left.

Ofc republicans can take credit on that as well but Clinton had to defeat a threat that was 100% against nafta.

And that wasn't "from the left". Perot was on the right of Clinton politically.

Anyway I guess we agree? Nafta was great and Clinton election and choices at the time have repercussions on the price level today.

Yeah thought about bringing it up but seems like quite a rabbit hole. It probably would be a huge disruption to global trade but seems like if someone was really "America first" there would be talk to change over more refineries to our native oil to get us properly energy independent. I'm guessing it's a bunch of investment without the economic reward, otherwise I think it'd be talked about more.

Well maybe if we enacted Luciom's death penalty for pollution of public property, otherwise deregulation + gas companies + groundwater is not an equation I'm for.

that you might disagree with the tradeoffs, is a different topic vs whether it could be done or not, without allowing for future presidents to change course too much

That's what I said - you claim Clinton is responsible for the price of gas today.

I claim Clinton is responsible for the whole price level, the whole index of prices, being lower than it otherwise would be.

ofc it has to do with gas as well but no exclusively.

and ofc the price level has a zillion factors affecting it. but one of them is what Clinton managed to pass as president 30 years ago.

for the 4y old reading: I am talking 3-4% at most (still gigantic as an effect for the whole population every year, even a permanent 1% would be more than enough to be one of the most effective people in history).

NAFTA isn't here anymore trump took complete responsibility for it years ago with his new version.

which is the same treaty but he changed the initials then went back to play golf

I'm not sure what you keep queefing about, as you keep reiterating that you claim Clinton is responsible for the price of gas today. I don't really give a shiit if you think he's responsible for it being higher or lower.

you know that the USA uses Canadian oil for a lot of gasoline yes?

of all the times i've heard nafta mentioned or discussed, it was 99.9% about mexico - wouldn't surprise me if majority of americans didn't even know canada was involved as well

Hasn't that been going on since the 50's or 60's? What does that have to do with your claim that Clinton is responsible for gas prices today?