Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Venice's Introduction to the Thread.
I make a rule to not change someone's post unless it violates a rule. However this is the exception. Not because APD's post is bad (it is good), but because there's lots of discussion back and forth on winrates, and some people are just looking for a simple answer to winrates and bankrolls.
The simple answer is that winning is good. The majority of people playing poker lose money. Poker is a worse than zero sum game because of rake. Therefore if you are winning, you're doing well.
Harrington wrote that if you are beating a live game for 10BB/hr, you're crushing it. That's $20/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5. That doesn't mean that you can't beat it for more, it just means that over time winning that much means you're vastly superior than your opponents. Most people don't sustain that over a long period of time because they move up to win more money.
The second simple answer is to stop worrying about what your sustainable winrate is. In order to get a big enough sample to statistically generate an accurate winrate, you and your opponents have play thousands of hands exactly the same way. Poker doesn't work that way. If you aren't improving your play over that amount of hands, you're falling behind your opponents. Therefore, the results are meaningless.
Finally, Kurt put it best that you need 20 buyins to play a level.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78/mic...
On to the rest of the thread.
So here it is... The Win Rate thread (and other finances)!
This thread will basically be a containment thread and will stock pile all of the questions and answers about winrates. I would also like to include bankroll management and other finances into this thread. Bottom line is this, if you are worried about a win rate you should probably be worried about bankroll management also.
Instead of starting this thread like all other winrate threads by asking the question, "What is a good hourly/winrate at live 1/2?" I would rather take the time to explain a few tools live players have to help us with it and to also help us become disciplined. The "whats a good rate" questions I am sure will be asked time and time again.
Online players have some superb tools that they get to use. HUD's, databases, OPR, PTR, Shark Scope, and the list goes on. Live players have one thing, our memory. As we all know the human mind is prone to what is called human error, or in a lot of "winning" poker players cases exaggeration and forgetfullness. I think its important to discuss how we go about keeping track of all this information that will be important to and for our games. So get your pens and pads ready, or phones, and get ready to start logging!
What goes into a winrate? A lot of people simply log the hours played, the amount they bought in for, and the amount they cashed out. At the end they calculate it all together and wala a winrate or, like most live players use, an hourly rate. This is probably the easiest way to do it. When I first started logging my play I would bring a binder with me that kept all my poker "stuff" in it and I would log it into the book at the end of the session. If I had forgotten the binder I would make a quick note in my phone and write it later. I always made it a point to do it right then and there though. Never ever wait! Human error will kick in.
Times have gotten much more advanced though. Live players now have some pretty useful tools that we can use. First one I will talk about is Poker Journal for the Apple fanboys.
Poker Journal by Michael Golden is a program that will track both your live and tournament play (and any game you would like to add to your database) and calculate everything for you. It will give you your hourly rate, time played, average won, average lost, sessions won and lost, and much much more. It will also graph your sessions and run reports for you. You want to know what day or time has been the best to play or what location is the most profitable? Simply filter your stats and its all there. It will also run live cash games. You hit start and the clock goes a ticking. Unfortunately it runs only on the iPhone and iPod at the time and is $12.99.
Next is www.checkyourbets.com. I personally have not used this, but going to the website and looking at some of the screen shots and reading the FAQ it looks pretty solid and its FREE! 😃 Others on here use this site and I will let them add what they feel is appropriate.
Last is cardplayer.com. Their format is very simple yet boring. If you want something quick and easy with not too much detail then its for you. It definately beats a pen, paper and calculator, but I would go with one of the other ones personally.
There are others, but I think those are some pretty good examples. So why go through all this trouble to tell you about these tools? Simple, you want to know what kind of winrate is to be expected then start logging. What I do is not going to be the same as what you do or anybody else does. Not only will you start to learn about winrates at the different levels but you will be able to disect your game and learn many things. It will teach you discipline. When you are making it a point to log each session you will start to treat your poker more like a business and become more serious about it. Also important is to log your expenses. You need to know if you are spending too much and if it is affecting your roll.
Bankroll is another important thing. I think we all can agree that 20 BI's at 1/2is a good starting point, but if you dont want to wait to save up $2k just to play some poker there is nothing wrong with taking shots. In our world (casinos) this is the smallest game offered and we really have no choice. I will leave the bankroll information out for now as there are many different opinions on it.
Last thing I want to add is that this needs to be a place where people compare rates and notes with little to no brags. If you are going to come on here and brag you better have some proof (I gave you some great material above) and many hours to back your claims up. For those that have been wanting to log their sessions now is the time to start. I can see many good self challenges coming out of this and more disciplined players.
Thats it for now. Let the questions begin (and reappear many times).
Looked at my 2023 NL cash stats down 1100 dollars after 2 sessions totaling almost 9 hours… the journey to losing player ��
Just hit 1000 hours at 5/5
I'm starting to think it's possible I'm not a losing player at this game
feels good man
(IknowIknowlolsamplesize)
Quick question, what do you think is the best indicator of your true CURRENT winrate?
A. Lets say you play 1000 hours/year
1. The past year (1000 hours)
2. Past 2 years (2000 hours)
3. Past 5 years (5k hours)
4. Your entire poker career no matter how long
B. Same question but for 500 hours/year
Through off felt study/review, if a light bulb(s) has been turned on, and subsequently implemented successfully, I think you can make a solid case for that specific sample of hours.
Closing leaks like call too often, raise/call 3B oop with weaker part of range, better understanding hand configuration are just some improvements that can be made.
Personally, I worked on closing a few during Covid closure and implemented in a good size (> 2k hrs) live sample. I consider this as my hourly, obviously much higher than previous.
Let's say you're a solid winning player at 1/2 over 10,000 hands and want to make a one-time investment into a bankroll to move up in stakes, as high as 10/25 (allegedly the softest game in the cardroom). What is the maximum percent of your life roll you would invest? Let's say you had a $1 million IRA + $300,000 house at retirement. When you retire, how much would you put into a bankroll?
I was half-joking when I told my wife that, when I retire, I'm going to take a chunk from my IRA and invest it into a bankroll. She wasn't pleased. Any help here is also some marital advice.
If I was going to be seriously playing in a good (so probably high variance) 10/25 game regularly I would want at least $250,000.
I would still want to be able to meet all my other expenses from 3% of my investments.
So it really depends on how much your expenses are.
to be seriously playing in a good (so probably high variance) 10/25 game regularly I would want at least $250,000. I would still want to be able to meet all my other expenses from 3% of my investments.
It sadly looks like I'll never play 10/25. Drawing down 3 percent per year seems pretty conservative, the advice a certified financial consultant gives. I was thinking more like 5 percent. I can tolerate variance in retirement funds as in poker. I plan to keep the retirement funds invested in more stocks than bonds, adjusting living expenses as the value of the retirement funds fluctuate.
It sadly looks like I'll never play 10/25. Drawing down 3 percent per year seems pretty conservative, the advice a certified financial consultant gives. I was thinking more like 5 percent. I can tolerate variance in retirement funds as in poker. I plan to keep the retirement funds invested in more stocks than bonds, adjusting living expenses as the value of the retirement funds fluctuate.
You can certainly be more aggressive if you have a high risk tolerance or will have income from other sources.
I for one plan to live much longer than 30 years in retirement and have no plans to eat Alpo so I'd like to save as much as possible.
I would suggest to take out only 25k, play 2-5 and grind your way up the stakes. If you take 250k and go directly to 10/25 you’re most likely the mark at the table and will get crushed.
I'd take out 35k and play 2/5.
Let's say you're a solid winning player at 1/2 over 10,000 hands and want to make a one-time investment into a bankroll to move up in stakes, as high as 10/25 (allegedly the softest game in the cardroom). What is the maximum percent of your life roll you would invest? Let's say you had a $1 million IRA + $300,000 house at retirement. When you retire, how much would you put into a bankroll?
I was half-joking when I told my wife that, when I retire, I'm going to take a chunk from my IRA and inves
It depends your buy in amount. Is the game regularly straddled to 50? I would say 40 buy ins minimum for shot taking. But you don't just start playing 10/25. You play the next stakes below that mostly and take some shots at 10/25, get to know all the 10/25 players, who are the pros, who are the solid regs, who are the recreational players. Get to know their stories. The recreational players are usually independently wealthy or have high incomes. A typical 10/25 game is going to be a mix of pros, recs, and decent recs. The lineups in these games are typically curated so that there aren't too many pros. They will let new blood in, but if they find out you are a crusher they likely won't have you play unless the game is in danger of breaking.
You want to play when there is a good ratio of rec to pro. Sometimes these games can get short handed and it is like 3 recs and a pro and that is the best time to hop in. And for the most part you will play 2/5, 5/10 while you get more comfortable playing 10/25.
If you are seriously thinking about doing this, start making friends in the higher stakes community as an investment for the future. Don't step on toes because you never know who is going to be the one to veto you from being in a game, even if they are seemingly a no one today. And start building your bankroll at 2/5 and 5/10.
Let's say you're a solid winning player at 1/2 over 10,000 hands and want to make a one-time investment into a bankroll to move up in stakes, as high as 10/25 (allegedly the softest game in the cardroom). What is the maximum percent of your life roll you would invest? Let's say you had a $1 million IRA + $300,000 house at retirement. When you retire, how much would you put into a bankroll?
I was half-joking when I told my wife that, when I retire, I'm going to take a chunk from my IRA and inves
If playing poker for medium-high stakes is important to you, then you should "invest" in a bankroll. More importantly, you should "invest" in poker coaching.
The main problem is that you are not good enough yet to play medium to high stakes. But you are insinuating that you want to play medium to high stakes eventually. So you would need to pay for top notch quality coaching.
You missed his point, which was that he thinks 10/25 is softer than 1/3.
Given that as the context, he just needs a roll.
To be honest, it is actually common that a special highest stake game in the room that runs now and then and is one stake higher than the regular highest stake game in the room will be juicier than the regular highest game in the room that goes all the time.
So if 5/10 runs every day. But 10/25 fires off 1-2 days out of the week..10/25 will tend to be a special lineup built around certain big spots with deep pockets. Some of the 5/10 pros and regs will also be refusing to play that 10/25 game out of bankroll considerations too. So it that special 10/25 game could definitely be juicier and softer than 5/10 in that room.
Ray Zee's old rule was that in general the second largest game in the room was the best one to play.
If playing poker for medium-high stakes is important to you, then you should "invest" in a bankroll. More importantly, you should "invest" in poker coaching.
The main problem is that you are not good enough yet to play medium to high stakes. But you are insinuating that you want to play medium to high stakes eventually. So you would need to pay for top notch quality coaching.
Do you think it's at all realistic for some players to climb up from micros to nosebleeds with no coaching outside of videos, training sites, software, etc? Just left to the internet and their own devices.
Today I played a 5/5/10 that mostly had a 25 double straddle and sometimes had bigger restraddles. It was the biggest game in the room. It was a special lineup with 2 pros (me included), one good reg, and 9 splashy recs (at one point we were 10 handed and the other pro sat out). It was by far the best game in the room. Unfortunately, I was down 4.6k today after 7 hours and am currently on a 25k downswing. I definitely will continue to play these games as the opportunity arises. A little more about this on the blog post:
It sadly looks like I'll never play 10/25. Drawing down 3 percent per year seems pretty conservative, the advice a certified financial consultant gives. I was thinking more like 5 percent. I can tolerate variance in retirement funds as in poker. I plan to keep the retirement funds invested in more stocks than bonds, adjusting living expenses as the value of the retirement funds fluctuate.
Did your wife completely veto your idea to invest in a big bankroll? And is she open to you investing in a 2/5 bankroll? I think you could start playing 2/5 with a 10-15k bankroll if your local 2/5 games don't play that big (20k roll for 2/5 might be needed if the typical 2/5 table tends to play big with large buyins and/or lots of $10 straddling)
Do you think it's at all realistic for some players to climb up from micros to nosebleeds with no coaching outside of videos, training sites, software, etc? Just left to the internet and their own devices.
I don't think it is realistic. Maybe a tiny minority (less than 0.5%) could do it.
What's your definition of "micros?" And what is your definition of "nosebleeds?"
As a part-time player, hard to believe I just logged 5K hrs @ 2/5NL. What a journey ...
Hrs Wins BB/Hr
0-1000.4 $28,448 5.7
to 2007.4 $30,155 6.0
to 3001.2 $34,141 6.9
to 4000.2 $35,529 7.1
to 4999.5 $46,422 9.3
Tried re-formatting, unsuccessful. Hopefully, understandable.
If posters here don't mind comparing notes, I am curious about the current state of live poker winrates across different markets in 2024
What do people think are the realistic average winrates for "good regs" (not crushers who are the apex predators capable of much higher winrates) in their local markets grinding a lot of hours/month? Not inflated by game selecting (obviously primetime hours on weekends would lead to higher than the "average" wintate)
Please include location and stakes.
I'll do my take on LA poker realistic average winrates for "good regs" even though I haven't played anywhere else besides Gardens Casino lately.
5/5: $25-$35/hour
5/10 or 5/5/10: $50-$75/hour
10/20 or Gardens bounty (similar to 10/20): $80-$125/hour
Do you think it's at all realistic for some players to climb up from micros to nosebleeds with no coaching outside of videos, training sites, software, etc? Just left to the internet and their own devices.
Realistic is different than efficient, idk. At some point you are playing big enough stakes/volume it's hard to imagine why you wouldn't get coaching, it takes so little for it to be worth the cost.
