"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread

HMDYL?

Yeah I get it, most people are bad, whatever.

But how long do you expect to beat a game with a strategy of "let's hope no one notices that I play 1 hand every hour."

But it doesn't matter. There are so many drooling flop monkeys at 1/3 that you will ALWAYS get action even if you only play 1 hand every third orbit.

There are maybe 3-4 guys that regularly call me out for being tight. (yes I play tight, but I have also had crazy runs of card deadness.) I say nothing and they STILL give me all the action I want. They quite literally can't help themselves. I could flip my hand face up and they'd still put money in the pot.

OK but wouldn't you win more if no one could say that about you?

And your strategy would be much more resilient to people paying attention for more than 10 minutes?

it has worked for our man gg who plays in a tiny room for 10+ years and counting. THat being said, I expect them to come up with a counter strat any day now 😆

Yo Rick Roll - we just got into vegas. Looks like there are 5 people from the wheels x murica here riding ...u gunna make it?

Do you think his winrate will stay the same over time, or go down?

looking extremely unlikely, lost power for 5 days in a row (lost it again this morning for a few hours) and was snowed in and this made it impossible to either work on the bikes much nor work on actual work

also haven't filed my taxes yet and that's a nightmare for me

wish i could make it and really appreciate the invite but barring something magically falling together this weekend there's no way i could get out there in time :(

I hope you feel better soon

that sux dood. was hoping u could make it. SPC is starting to put the hammer down with training so if u feel like doing stuff out west shes filling up the calendar big time and u have an open invite

Bout tree fiddy

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You can prove your point by coaching me into a winning 2/5 player 😃

We may be venturing into Miracle Worker territory.

I may be venturing into casino poker the next weekend. Going to be up in Louisville for work for 2 weeks so I am thinking about popping over to Indiana to play. I have gotten a KITN for my troubles my last two visits there so third time is the charm, amirite?

You can PM me specific questions.

Wow, I didn't expect that response. Thank you

It is 15 years and going. He's won over a million dollars in that time. He has no ambitions to play any higher.

Finally, he has no pretensions of saying that his method could be used by anybody at any level and anyone that disagrees with him is wrong.

He's a long-term winner but stop the cap.

I think venice misread GGs graph. Over $100K, but not a milly.

That said, his winrate has gone up in each of his last 1K/hr samples, even though rake has too.

Many ITF just really have a hard time wrapping their brains around to what extent the lowest limits are really, as the Barenaked Ladies said, like LeAnn Rimes, all about value.

I play live poker probably more than anyone ITT. I know they are bad.

That said, I think it's a dangerous mindset to assume that no one will ever get better. The average $5/10 game is way tougher than it was 10 years ago, and this effect will slowly trickle down into lower games too.

I don't doubt that you can beat $1/3 with a fairly "braindead" style, but it would be a mistake to assume that by never bluffing you're not leaving any money on the table. Poker is not that simple, and the truth is that the majority of "conventional wisdom" in poker is hilariously wrong. Computers give zero ****s about what "solid poker" looks like, they are not biased like humans, if you have flaws in your game (and nearly everyone does) you will be beaten with brute force.

So yes, you will beat bad players by nitting it up and always having it, but you're definitely not maximizing your winnings. Someone who understands theory much better will find better exploits than someone who just nits it up, and this is true at any level. Low-stakes isn't a magic place where simplifying and knowing less about poker will make you win more.

Maybe maximizing one's winnings isn't everyone's goal.

And I'm very happy that that's the case.

I think what many ITT are getting at is that game theory assumes our opponents are acting rationally. That just isn't the case for the many low stakes players. That's not to say that won't change over time as Sabr is suggesting. But it's status quo in the near term.

The scenario Rick laid out above with KQs vs. 77 on an AJx board highlights this. That board is great for the preflop raiser's range. The preflop raiser has the nut and range advantage. It doesn't matter to the preflop caller, though, who isn't even considering if that is a good/bad board and will call flop and turn bets. Maybe we can get them to find a fold on the river if we dont hit a K, Q, or 10. But that hasn't been my, albeit limited, experience.

Granted, the above is one scenario where the preflop caller has a good preflop hand. There will still be plenty of times they swing and completely miss on that board, where a cbet or turn barrel will get through. But those spots need to be picked more carefully and against the right player.

In vegas, there were several players who almost refused to call larger bets than $20 post flop unless they had the complete nuts. Against these player types, it makes more sense to see more flops and look for opportunities to take it away on later streets. But there were also 2 other people at the table who noticed as well and were trying to isolate. Now, my world is much more complex.