"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread
It's been about 9.5 years and 350K posts of epicness, but "It Lives, It Lives" can live no more. The OG LLSNL Chat Thre
Miami…who have you got in the 1500 tonight? Gonna be a good race - I feel like Jakob is gonna want to go very hard to take Kerr’s kick away so it could be fast
vg
Spent 5 nights in Big Sky and it was money. 75-80 during the day mid 50's at night.
Then get home and it's like walking on the sun every morning. This really isn't proper living with this frigging humidity
Got home from morning errands and noticed this
About 21.75 years old, so pretty low mileage considering.
Twas a beautiful day to ride some single track on the dirt bike. Couple of more months and it’ll be time for winter recreations. Gotta love the Rockies!
Not much. My neighborhood is very walkable (and bikeable as the weather allows). Just drive the truck around town.
Of course, not having a commute helps a lot. Even when working, though, for a long time I drove ~4 miles to the bus stop when going to/from work.
It's kind of strange. I'll barely drive at all, then jump in the Subie for a road trip and put ~4-5K on in a couple weeks.
Not much. My neighborhood is very walkable (and bikeable as the weather allows). Just drive the truck around town.
Of course, not having a commute helps a lot. Even when working, though, for a long time I drove ~4 miles to the bus stop when going to/from work.
It's kind of strange. I'll barely drive at all, then jump in the Subie for a road trip and put ~4-5K on in a couple weeks.
Japanese cars really are the go - the engineering is so superior from a reliability perspective. Owning a 20yr old car that rewards/allows occasional driving just doesn't happen very often with non Jap cars. In my life to date I've owned
Lexus (current)
Mazda x2
Subaru
Mercedes
VW x2
Fiat
Saab
Volvo
This is the order I'd rank them in terms of overall engine reliability (although the Lexus is only 4 months old, so too early to tell) and there is daylight between the Japs and Germans from a cost of ownership/reliability/no stupid things going wrong perspective. And then a giant gap again to the Scandy cars which were just terrible to own. The Fiat (Uno Turbo) was surprisingly good tbh, but it was old and I had low expectations, but I suspect this might have just been variance. It was basically just a roller skate with a giant engine though and would crumple if crashed
Well generally speaking Japanese cars aren't engineered to have the newest and latest technology, or the highest power density or maximum engine RPM. Japanese manufacturing standards are also quite high, as a result Japanese cars tolerate abuse and neglect better than most cars.
I've spent roughly $60K on my 2 Audis on maintenance/repairs/modifications. Divided by 15 years of total ownership that comes out to about $4K/year. That doesn't include fuel/registration/insurance of course.
German cars are like supermodels. Fun but not cheap. You cannot neglect maintenance on them.
Italian cars are like supermodels. Fun but not cheap. You cannot neglect maintenance on them.
FYP. German cars a walk in the park compared to fast Italian cars. Any friend of mine who has bought an Italian performance car has regretted it
having said that...idk about elsewhere in the world, but Porsche apparently have and fund the most incredible roadside assist service in the UK because they want to limit the amount of time potential buyers drive by Porsches stranded by the side of the freeway with the hood up
Well generally speaking Japanese cars aren't engineered to have the newest and latest technology, or the highest power density or maximum engine RPM. Japanese manufacturing standards are also quite high, as a result Japanese cars tolerate abuse and neglect better than most cars.
that all makes perfect sense and is something that basically every Japanese car buyer would be happy with I'd think.
I can't remember for 100% certainty, but I owned my Mazda 6 for 11 years until trading it for the Lexus and I honestly don't think I paid for anything other than tyres and brake pads in addition to the annual service. It's why I owned it for so long - there was literally no reason to buy something new other than boredom.
It depends. Modern Lamborghinis are basically Audis. The Urus is exactly an Audi, which is why I laugh at posers who buy that car and pay a $100K premium for the Lamborghini badge.
Ferraris have also gotten far more reliable in the last 15 years. Reliable being a relative term of course, 30 year old Ferraris are beautiful pieces of **** that require $20K services frequently.
Honda and Toyota family checking in here.
Currently have - Tundra, Pilot, and Civic. Sold my other Pilot a few months ago for the Tundra.
High performance super cars/truck. I’d probably beat anything Sabr drives… in maintenance costs.
I’m a huge fan of reliability and companies that back their product.
too soon to talk about cars
Miami…who have you got in the 1500 tonight? Gonna be a good race - I feel like Jakob is gonna want to go very hard to take Kerr’s kick away so it could be fast
Here is my list indepth prediction
I’m going with
Timmy goes out hard
Jakob goes with him
Nugese close in tow
Kerr doesn’t panic and stays front of 2nd tier with Cole and Hobbs on his shoulder
Timmy pushes through 700 and Jakob takes the lead trying to grind
Kerr and Cole move up and hold position
Cole moves too early on the last lap after Kerr starts his first move
Both pass Jakob with 100 to go
Cole fades to bronze
Kerr wins “easily”
Someone surprising nabs silver like Gourley
Ideally- I’d love for Kerr to get dead f-ing last with Yared winning followed by Jakob and then Kessler.
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Here is my list indepth prediction
I’m going with
Timmy goes out hard
Jakob goes with him
Nugese close in tow
Kerr doesn’t panic and stays front of 2nd tier with Cole and Hobbs on his shoulder
Timmy pushes through 700 and Jakob takes the lead trying to grind
Kerr and Cole move up and hold position
Cole moves too early on the last lap after Kerr starts his first move
Both pass Jakob with 100 to go
Cole fades to bronze
Kerr wins “easily”
Someone surprising nabs silver like Gourley
Ideally- I’d love for Kerr
i hope not, i'm fairly heavily invested in jakob
i mean i looked over it, kerr only has 2 times that would enter the top 10 for jakob
in 2023 jakob claimed he was competing sick, just barely lost to kerr
in order for jakob to lose either kerr needs to have the best run of his life or jakob blunders it and possibly requires both because there's a world where kerr sets his pb but still loses to a non pb of jakob (basically what happened at the world's last year - kerr ran the game of his life and jakob was sick)
jakob is fine now, he's been incredibly arrogant/cocky in the prelim heats knowing he'd easily qualify and giving zero effort and demonstrating an unheard amount of arrogance in the sport
but the odds are only treating him like a slight favorite at most rec books
you can still get jakob at -135 on dk - since my account is limited most i can get on it a couple bucks
importantly, any of the books will accept a real wager on him have him at much longer odds
notice the limits
not financial advice as variance is extreme and the difference between a recreational and a crusher is 51% wins and losing to vig vs 54% winning and beating vig so more of a degen tip... but these are both very good imo if you can get down action on it at these discounted lines
Kerr absolutely does not need to have the race of his life to beat Jakob. He dusted him earlier this year at Pre and has looked phenomenal all year without ever looking like he had peaked.
Both of them are insane talents and my heart wants Jakob to win but Kerr has more finishing speed which will favor him. Gone are the days were someone (imo) can just grind and front run the 1500m. There are too many talented runners who can hang and still have enough left over.
Jakobs beat chance imo is if Nugese or Tim take it out hard and do the work for the first two laps leaving Jakob to drop a 55 low 3rd lap and try to hold on for dear life.
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i admittedly know very little about this and just from some corroborating research - the main point of attack was sharp books have his odds much steeper than recreational ones and then i spent a little bit of time trying to better understand it (but would have still likely bet it blindly anyway because the gap is that severe)
i'm probably overweighing top 10 results which are probably more outliers than representative of a typical run - especially in something like this where each race will be different due to various strategies and pacings chosen by people
but where i was sold was that the gap in lines was warranted was seeing that only Kerr's single best result would land in the top 10 of Jakob's and it would be tied for his 9th best result
assumption is everyone has been spending the entire preceding years gearing up for the olympics, this is when they'll be at peak performance, etc etc and we're more likely to see a top of the range outcome here than in a normal competition (as seen by kerr's best is olympics and jakob's 4th best is same olympics)
if he wins prefontaine race, maybe less than 100k people know, he wins the olympic gold and he's going to be an international celebrity, featured on talk shows and stamps in his home country and be much more comfortable financially the rest of this life - hence why i don't put much weight on a race like the prefontaine
but again, i'm happy to be dead wrong here, we all saw with covid how everyone thinks they are an expert in something after spending 15 minutes reading about it on wikipedia - hence why if the sharp book i showed above also had him at -135 i would not have wagered anything
