2024 ELECTION THREAD

Wow. Liberals are war mongers because neither of the two people running for president has stopped a war between two other countries yet (but only the liberal one must be the war monger).

Solid job dude.

its complicated. nothing can be done. just gotta keep sending weapons and soldiers all over the world and doing genocide every few decades. Iraq and Afghanistan killed like 4m. whats a couple more mill in Gaza and Ukraine? vote blue no matter who and dont interrupt my brunch with all the bloody children or elderly slave soldiers in Ukraine.

Victor,

Who would you say has more responsibility for the war in Ukraine, Russia or the U.S.?

You can't be more wrong.

As a Jewish Liberal I was for World War II, a war my father fought in.

I have no opinion on the Korean War. If the South Koreans wanted us to help them against the North Koreans then I have no problem with that. I just don't have any idea what the war was about.

The Vietnam War was stupid and ultimately racist (our men were trained to call them Gooks). So I wasn't for that war but I would have fought in it if my draft card came in 1973 and not 1974. I wasn't going to pretend I had bone spurs.

Many of the subsequent US wars have been political and stupid. In Afghanistan then Iraq under George W Bush. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis killed and over a Trillion dollars spent, similarly in Afghanistan where we lost over 3,000 US lives basically a similar amount that died in the World Trade Center terrorist attack. George HW Bush's war I forget where it was to stop rapists and protect US Allies was probably necessary. The war in Serbia was necessary to have UN intervention during Clinton's term, because it wasn't started by us.

When I look at what is going on with Israel I think it is very unfortunate. Netanyahu's approach because he is so politically unpopular is to escalate when Hamas attacks. This means that far more Palestinians will die than Israelis. So when Hamas killed thousands of Israelis recently I wouldn't have supported what Netanyahu did. I would have supported an attack that killed Hamas leaders and if they were hiding among Palestinian civilians, as Hamas does, so be it. But Hamas also took hostages so it is unclear how the rest of it would have gone.

In general I think Israel should have allowed Palestine to be a country. Even though the terrorist organizations might have had power within the government. Just be on alert at all times and if there is a military attack or terrorist attack defend well, retaliate in a similar way without escalating. Kind of like how Reagan handled it when the US lost 239 troops in Lebanon.

Do I think military aid to Israel should stop? Yes. Until they get rid of Netanyahu and agree to a Palestinian State.

The Russian war on Ukraine of course I support Ukraine and its not because I am 25% Ukrainian. Russia is trying to start up a USSR thing again and Putin should be stopped if possible. Ironically if the Republicans in the house had prevented aid to Ukraine if I were President I would have sent US troops to end it, take back the Russia occupied land (not Crimea though which has Nuclear weapons) and then negotiate a truce with Putin. I have no idea what Putin would do next if he had actually conquered Ukraine.

I'd say a lot of the steps are fairly obvious, even if the order is unclear:

- Gain stronger control over the Black Sea
- Start a similar campaign in the Baltics as was done in Ukraine in 2014 and create a false pretense to invade.
- use Transnistra as a false pretence to complete the invasion and occupation of Moldova
- Absorb / annex Belarus through political movies and the guise of protecting the country from extremists
- Heat up the conflict in the Balkans, train and sponsor extremist groups, move more openly in support of nationalist Serbs.
- Bribe Georgian officials to request security assistance, complete the invasion and occupy the remaining part of the country.
- Continued the war efforts in Syria and Libya, try to stabilize their efforts into a secure staging ground for operations in Africa
- Continued use of Wagner and similar groups to conduct operations like the ones we have seen Mali
- Continued assault on elections in western states and other democracies
- Continued use of hybrid warfare to attack and sabotage infrastructure in western countries and other democracies

vic if i was screaming the names of dead palestinian children would you ask me to stop screaming in your ear and/or seek protection by covering them or would you just say "no i love dead palestinians so scream it into my ear 24/7 please"

Georgia & moldova would be next in line yes, not necessarily immediatly but in the 3-5 years range.

Good point. If they loved dead Palestinian children as much as Victor claims, they would surely want to hear more of the chanting, so he is undermining his own point.

That is what passes for logic in your world, right, Vic?

Why do you think writing many posts signifies having a problem? honest question. I like to talk, you guys are engaging, some new guys around are making it even more fun.

I Just ended a 1:30 hour convo on markets with friends discussing stuff (i am so pessimist compared to them, maybe i am wrong, still trying to ascertain that) and i am here for 15-20 mins then i go watch some tv show with my SO, while i finish my second bottle, tell me what i am doing wrong

Words. So, so many words.

this forum is his fleshlight, basically

Tim Walz was in congress and voted against the Iraq war lol you are a joke dude, you don’t understand anything outside of your left wing twitter memes (I assume this is where you’re getting this crap from).

Turns out countries don’t like terrorists attacking them and kidnapping hundreds of their civilians! What a shock!

Tim walz started his congress career in 2006, Iraq war authorization vote was in 2002, can you either check stuff before making random claims, or avoid lying thx?

He is not in this list

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2002/roll455...

My comment was light-hearted. If spending 12 hours a day reading and posting on 2+2 is rewarding for you, go for it. The site needs the traffic. I don't think spending that much time posting would be good for me, but you do you.

Trump is part of the moral elite. You are but a peasant

thats a typo, he was talking about the 2000 election

This place is amazing. Make 100% false statements, get called out on it, and just BULLDOZE straight ahead.

"Tim Walz was in congress and voted against the Iraq war"

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

#BlueMaga is a helluva drug

.

looks like Trump's people got to him and convinced him that Georgia might be at issue and now he's calling Brian Kemp a great guy after 4 years of talking crap on him

This BlueMaga joke truly never gets old. It's the greatest joke in history of our species. I can't get enough it. It's hysterical funny every time. And I'm sure it will be hysterically funny the next 2000 times. And if you say it is a "helluva drug," that just takes the joke to new level that I thought was unattainable. More please. I'm begging for it.

seems like more of a comment than a joke, but

Today ends the 4th 8 day period since Biden stepped down and handed the reins over to Kamala (K). Kamala's gains have slowed in swing states to the point where she gained only 0.3% on average in all of them .

The first 8 days after Biden stepped down, Kamala gained 1.9% on average in the 9 swing states (AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, VA, and WI). The next 8 days she gained 2.3% on average. Then after announcing Walz as her VP she gained 1.3% on average. And in the last 8 days leading up and including the DNC, she gained only 0.3% on average (I didn't count ME 2nd District and NE 2nd District as part of the overall averages because they are only 1 electoral vote each, but had they been counted Kamala would have averaged a 1.8% gain).

Its the first time Kamala lost ground in some of the swing states to Trump (T) per 538.com. There was only 1 poll for swing states that includes data from 8/19-8/21 which was in NC.

For the following MC = Multi-Candidates that aren't K or T. Un = Undecided, the Net Gains noted are for the last 8 days not overall.

Kamala gained in 3 swing states and 2 Districts (in ME and NE) over the last 8 days while Trump lost ground. In all 4 of the 5 cases Kamala has now taken over the lead:
AZ: K up by 1.5% (45.8% to 44.3% with 5.2% MC and 4.7% Un). Net gain of 0.9% for K (K+0.5%, T-0.4%)
ME 2: K now up by 5% (49% to 44% with 4% MC and 3% Un). Net gain of 9% for K (K+9%, T no change). This was the same pollster from several weeks ago.
NC: K now up by 0.4% (45.8% to 45.4% with 3.7% MC and 5.1% Un). Net gain of 1% for K (K+0.4%, T-0.6%).
NE 2: K now up by 6.5% (48.5% to 42% with 4.5% MC and 5% Un). Net gain of 6.5% for K (K+6.5%, T no change). Biden was tied in latest poll before these 2 MC polls this week.
NV: K now up by 0.6% (45% to 44.4% with 5% MC and 5.6% Un). Net gain of 0.8% for K (K+0.7%, T-0.1%)

As a result of the above Kamala is now ahead in electoral votes by 304 to 234. It is now unlikely that Kamala will lose ME District 2 and NE District 2. There also was a Maine poll which had the same result, basically a 9% gain, putting Kamala up by 17% (55% to 38% with 4% MC and 3% Un). Maine was no longer a swing state due to a previous poll, though Biden had trailed by 1% in his latest poll.

In all other swing states the leader stayed the same (though by different gains and losses)

Kamala and Trump both gained in 5 swing states in the last 8 days but in some states K gained over T and in others T gained over K.:
FL: T up by 3.8% (47.7 to 43.9% with 4.1% MC and 4.3% Un). Net loss of 0.9% for T (K+1.5%, T+0.6%). Florida should now be considered a swing state.
GA: T up by 0.5% (46.6% to 46.1% with 3% MC and 4.3% Un). Net gain of 0.4% for T (K+0.3%, T+0.7%).
MI: K up by 3.4% (46.9% to 43.5% with 4.7% MC and 4.9% Un). No net gain (or loss...) (K+0.6%, T+0.6%)
PA: K up by 1.8% (46.6% to 44.8% with 4.1% MC and 4.5% Un). Net loss of 0.3% for K (K+0.3%, T+0.6%).
WI: K up by 3.8% (47.9% to 44.1% with 4.1% MC and 3.9% Un). Net gain of 0.3% for K (K+0.6%, T+0.3%)

Though MN is no longer a swing state I wanted to show how it looks now because of Walz :
MN: K up by 9.2% (49.5% to 40.3% with 4.4% MC and 5.8% Un). Net gain of 1.1% for K (K+1.8%, T+0.7%). This state is basically no longer a possible victory for Trump.

One poll came out in VA this past week and it was really bad for Kamala. This was the only swing state where Kamala lost votes. Nate Silver has a graph for VA but 538.com doesn't yet (I'm guessing they will soon):
VA: K up by 4.6% (46.7% to 42.1% with 5.2% MC and 6% Un). Net loss of 0.5% for K (K-0.2%, T+0.3%). I am kind of stunned that Kamala hasn't campaigned in VA...

Typically there will be poll increases for the Democratic candidate after the DNC. However because RFK is likely to announce stepping down and supporting Trump tomorrow, I have no idea how it will affect the polls. If RFK remains on the ballots which I think has to be the case where he has submitted signatures there will still be some small % of people who will vote for him that wouldn't vote for either Trump or Kamala. But a significant % of RFK's support will go to Undecided and a significant % will possibly go to Trump over Kamala. We will have to wait and see.

The other factor that could shed light on this RFK thing is that Kamala does not do as well in Heads Up (HU) polls as she does in MC polls in almost any swing state. The only swing state where Kamala does better HU is in NV. It is a significant difference too but NV is worth only 6 electoral votes. MI and NC are the only other states where Kamala is worse in the HU polls by less than 1.2% than the MC polls. In MI she is 0.4% worse in HU polls and in NC she is 0.1% worse in HU polls. The worst swing state for Kamala HU vs MC is GA where she is worse by 3.3%. So my gut feeling is that GA is not looking good for Kamala right now.

People are wrong all the time. It doesn't mean they are lying.

However, Donald Trump does in fact lie all the time.

Luciom cites people who post here all the time as liars. It isn't true in all likelihood. We are just making mistakes. I have done that twice.

Donald Trump however, isn't making mistakes. He is lying. Intentionally. People around him have said it was made clear to him that he lost the 2020 election. His lawyers filed over 60 cases
to dispute the outcome of elections. Not only did they lose all of those cases (they did win one in PA where the case was about extending the number of days people could correct write in ballots) they did not present any evidence of fraud in any of the cases. In all of the cases challenging election results the judge asked the lawyers if they were submitting evidence about fraud. Not once did they submit any evidence about fraud.

So Trump is obviously clearly lying. And yet Luciom hasn't responded and he also hasn't called Trump out on his lies. To my knowledge. I could be mistaken and maybe Luciom has said Trump lied. But I doubt it. In any case moving forward if Luciom calls anybody here a liar I will again ask him what he thinks about Trump's lies. I will pick new ones each time. I have about 15,000 to choose from when he was President. And apparently at his rallies he is lying over 100 times per rally.